三人行必有我師： CRCL股價分析（1）
注：最後的結論可能在今天討論以後改變，如有改變，我會寫個簡單的CRCL分析（2）
昨晚我在獅山的一個貼裏半開玩笑半認真地說：“我準備對CRCL下重手，現在倉位太小，price @105”.
薄少帥以他一貫四兩撥千斤的方式回複我：“多重？往死裏整那種？ 我對 CRCL 盈利能力有懷疑…. CRCL靠短期債劵的利息掙錢, this set up the ceiling of their profit“.
三心接著善意提醒我：“CRCL 要當心。 USDC circulation growth has slowed down significantly in Q4. It grew from 61M to 74M in Q3, 20% growth. But now, in Q4, it has barely moved, currently at 75M. CRCL could miss its earning if USDC stays at this level in Q4”.
獅山以他嚴謹的態度認真道： “今年3月份60B, 11月初75B, growth在一個高的base下確實slow down但是USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization. … JPMorgan analysts reported that USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization (72% increase for USDC vs. 32% for USDT in a specific period leading up to late October 2025). “
我讀了他們三位的高見後，心想，下一步我該做什麽呢？How to make my decision based on the information I got? 於是決定先認真做個作業吧，把他們仨的觀點綜合起來，想清楚後先。CRCL是前不久剛剛IPO的公司，我沒有數據做詳細的FA，於是決定請教Grok AI, 然後把AI的分析和建議整理出來，也把我的想法分享於此，期望能大家探討！請一定不要不響，悶聲不響的人是發不了大財的，根據我的經驗LOL
1， 分析薄少帥的inputs，我請教Grok AI: How does CRCL generate its revenue, and what are the factors that set up its ceiling of profit?
答案-1: CRCL是怎樣賺錢的——
a) interest income on reserves (75-80% of total revenue): USDC, a stablecoin created by CRCL is always pegged 1:1 to the US dollar, and every USDC in circulation is backed by real USD cash or short-term US Treasuries held in regulated banks.
b) Transaction and service fees (15-20% of total revenue): fees from processing payments, transfers, and settlements via CRCL’s APIs, wallets and payment rails.
c) Other (5% of total revenue) which includes partnerships such as rev-sharing with exchanges like Coinbase where CRCL co-manages USDC; yield-generating products like institutional lending and emerging services in tokenized assets; and minimal from direct crypto trading or investments
答案-2: 哪些是影響CRCL賺錢的因素——
a) Interest rate (primary ceiling): 80% of revenue is rate sensitive. Profits peak when short-term rates are high (5%+ yields on T-bills) but compress if the Fed cuts rates. A 1% rate drop could shave 15-20% off annual profits.
b) USDC circulation growth limits: revenue scales with USDC supply but adoption is capped by competition from USDT (Tether) and emerging stablecoins; crypto market volatility and regulatory hurdles.
c) Operational and compliance costs: high fixed costs (40% of revenue) for audits, legal and tech infrastructure to maintain; margin squeezed by R&D; and economic & geopolitical factors such as crypto winter or recession….
我的總結（bottom line） —— there are only 3 ways for the ceiling moves： (1) higher short-term rates, (2) higher USDC circulation growth, and (3) lower operating expenses。第一條不樂觀，從現在的跡象看降息是大勢所趨；第二條請看三心和獅山下麵的說法；第三條，降低Opex至少現階段沒指望。
2， 分析三心的inputs，我請教Grok AI: Is the following statement correct: “USDC circulation growth has slowed down significantly in Q4. It grew from 61M to 74M in Q3, 20% growth. But now, in Q4, it has barely moved, currently at 75M. CRCL could miss its earning if USDC stays at this level in Q4”?
答案如下：Yes, the statement was spot-on and backed by real-time data——
a) Q3 2025 $61B (start) to $74B (end), 7% monthly growth; Q4 (Oct 2025) $74B (start) to $76B (end), 2.5% monthly growth; and it dropped 4.5%
b) From 7% to 4.5%, this is a more than 50% dropped!
我的總結（bottom line）—— Q4 growth may suck, at least at this point, unless it catches up in the next 2 months! If USDC’s circulation growth keeps at this pace, CRCL will miss its circulation guidance by miles and its Q1 2026 earnings will be ugly! 三心的提醒切中要點，USDC circulation growth 不容樂觀！
3， 分析獅山的inputs，我請教Grok AI: Ok, in this case (based on Question#2), how do you rationalize the following statement: the USDC monthly growth based on $74B is a higher bar comparing to $61B, yes, it did slow down. However, JPMorgan analysts reported that USDC is outpacing Tether's USDT in on-chain activity and growth in market capitalization (72% increase for USDC vs. 32% for USDT in a specific period leading up to late October 2025), and with this in mind, what do you expect CRCL’s stock price for the next 3-6 months?
答案如下：perfect question, you just asked the exact thing every hedge-fund manager is whispering right now.
a) Short answer, 72% vs 32% is real and Q4 slowdown is also real.
b) Tho while “slow-down” and “out-pacing USDT” are the same movie, yet different frames. The JPM’s 72% (USDC) vs 32% (USDT) is 100% correct and 100% irrelevant for USDC’s Q4 earnings.
c) The worst and the best cases:
- P10 (worst): 50 bps cut causes circulation flat at $76B. Assume investors will take 28x PE and stock price around $65
- P50 (natural): 25 bps cut causes circulation increasing to $80B. Assume investors will take 35x PE and stock price around $118
- P90 (best): 25 bps cut + Trump’s Crypto Bills, causes circulation increasing to $85B. Assume investors will take 38x PE and stock price around $140
Grok AI 的建議——
(1) stay in cash (or stay put at a small position like my $105/per),
(2) on December 15, check Circle’s homepage for “Dec mints”, then make your move for the next 3 months (momentum trading).
我的推理和決定——
（1） 從短線的角度來看，最好的情況下明年Q1 CRCL的股價可以達到$140左右，但我不做短線
（2） 從長遠來看，我暫時看不到CRCL有更大的發展空間（尤其是circulation growth這一塊）和更強的掙錢能力, 我決定在現有價格賣出CRCL, 把這部分資金投資到更好的公司上。
