Info provided by AI:
Key IPO Facts (baseline)
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IPO range: $18–22/share
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Shares offered: 25M (+3.75M greenshoe)
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Target valuation: ~$13.1B
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Business model: REIT?like structure, building Project Matador (11?GW AI?focused data + energy campus in Amarillo, TX).
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First 1?GW milestone: end of 2026 (ambitious).
Positives
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Riding the AI infrastructure boom (data + energy).
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Dual?listing (U.S. + London) broadens investor base.
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Backed by high?profile founders and major underwriters (UBS, Evercore, Cantor, Mizuho).
Risks
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Development?stage: no revenue yet, ~$6.4M loss since inception.
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Ambitious valuation for a company without operating assets.
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Execution risk: building multi?gigawatt nuclear/gas/solar campus is capital?intensive and long?term.
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Investor returns hinge on signing contracts with hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc.).
Scenario Model
| Scenario | Capacity Online | Revenue Ramp | Valuation Multiple | Implied Valuation | Share Price Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On?time (2026) | 1?GW by 2026 | ~$1.0–1.2B annualized by 2027 (assuming ~$100–120M/GW revenue run?rate) | 12× EV/EBITDA (AI infra comps) | ~$15–18B | $25–30/share |
| Delayed (2028) | 1?GW slips to 2028 | ~$1.0–1.2B only by 2029 | Market applies discount for execution risk → 8–9× multiple | ~$9–11B | $15–18/share |
| Aggressive Buildout | 2–3?GW by 2027 | ~$2.5–3.0B run?rate | 12–14× multiple (if hyperscaler contracts secured) | $25–35B |
$40–55/share |
Implications
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On?time delivery → IPO investors could see a 50%+ uplift in 2–3 years.
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Delays → valuation could compress below IPO levels, with stock drifting in the mid?teens.
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Upside case → if hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG) sign long?term contracts, Fermi could re?rate into the $25–35B range, making it one of the largest AI?infra REITs globally.
Takeaway
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Fermi is a binary execution story:
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Deliver 1?GW on time → strong re?rating.
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Slip to 2028 → IPO investors risk dead money or downside.
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Unlike ETH or BTC (liquid, established), FRMI is pre?revenue, project?finance?driven. It’s closer to a venture?style bet wrapped in a public REIT.
