最近都已經漲了很多了。小白不懂，以前也不敢發。下麵的目標價是CHATGPT給的，隨便看看。
WDC (Western Digital — HDD pure-play now)
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What changed: WD completed the spinoff of its Flash business (SanDisk, ticker SNDK) on Feb 24, 2025. WDC is now a focused HDD vendor selling nearline drives to hyperscalers (Ultrastar) and shipping 28–32TB ePMR/UltraSMR today, with HAMR debut planned in 2026 and volume in 1H 2027. Western Digital+2Western Digital+2
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Set-up into ’27: Hyperscaler capacity growth stays strong, but Seagate leads on HAMR density until WD ramps; WD’s upside in ’26 likely comes from price/mix (UltraSMR) and discipline ahead of its HAMR crossover. Seagate Investors+1
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Today’s price (ref): ~$106.5.
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Price by Jan ’27 (16-mo view):
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Base: $130–145 (prob. ~50%) — steady cloud demand, UltraSMR mix, HAMR sampling late ’26 → initial volume ’27.
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Bull: $165–180 (30%) — faster HAMR yield/quals + tight industry supply lifts GM and ASPs.
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Bear: $80–95 (20%) — HAMR slip vs. STX and/or hyperscaler digestion.
Why: WD’s own roadmap shows HAMR volume 1H 2027; until then, ePMR/SMR carries the load. Tom's Hardware
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STX (Seagate — HAMR leader)
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What’s working: FY25 ended strong; Q4 revenue $2.44B, non-GAAP EPS $2.59, FCF up, dividend intact. HAMR (“Mozaic”) now qualified at multiple clouds, with plan for majority of nearline exabytes on HAMR by 1H FY27, targeting ~40% non-GAAP GM longer-term. Samples of 40TB already shipped; broader production slated through 1H 2026→2027. Seagate Investors+2Q4 Capital+2
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Set-up into ’27: Clear density/TCO lead should support pricing and margins as exabyte demand compounds.
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Today’s price (ref): ~$219.8.
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Price by Jan ’27:
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Base: $260–290 (50%) — HAMR majority mix by CY26/27, GM mid/upper-30s.
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Bull: $310–340 (30%) — faster 4–5TB/disk ramp, tighter supply, buybacks magnify EPS.
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Bear: $175–200 (20%) — yield hiccups or cloud capex pause.
Why: Investor-day targets show teens revenue CAGR, GM path to ~40% as HAMR mix rises. Q4 Capital
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PSTG (Pure Storage — all-flash arrays/SaaS)
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What’s working: Q2 FY26 revenue +13% Y/Y; raised FY guidance. Analysts tie the big print/rally to Meta hyperscaler wins (DirectFlash; talk of up to ~2 EB shipments by FY26) and stronger SaaS TCV; ARR is expanding. Pure Storage Investor+2Futurum+2
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Valuation check: Premium multiple (PE triple-digits on trailing), so execution must stay crisp; hyperscaler orders can be lumpy.
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Today’s price (ref): ~$87.5.
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Price by Jan ’27:
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Base: $105–120 (50%) — steady hyperscaler/AI data pipelines, ARR compounding.
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Bull: $135–150 (30%) — broader cloud wins + margin expansion; meta-like deals repeat.
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Bear: $65–80 (20%) — order pushouts or multiple compression despite growth.
Why: Guide-up and hyperscaler traction support growth, but the stock already embeds a lot of optimism. Pure Storage Investor+1
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Quick catalysts to watch
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WDC: Customer HAMR quals and first-half-’27 volume signals; nearline pricing/UltraSMR mix; HDD industry supply discipline. Tom's Hardware
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STX: HAMR capacity/node ramps (3+→4+ TB/disk), any 44–50TB roadmap pulls; gross-margin cadence vs. 40% long-term goal. Q4 Capital
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PSTG: Hyperscaler deal flow beyond Meta, ARR growth/FCF conversion, margin trajectory vs. raised FY26 guide.
