為什麽Romney可能贏Ohio？

The key is in enthusiastic gap. In 2004, Obama won Ohio by only 4.6%. there was one rally with 80,000 people attending and a lot of college kids were volunteering for him. Yesterday, Romney had a rally with 30,000 people in Ohio but Obama had only 2800. You can see the big difference this time.

Since Gallup suspended polling due to superstorm sandy, most remaining polls are very partisan (actually some of them can be considered as a part of the campaign of either side) and you cannot trust them. Let's assume O leads R by 2% on average. R still can win if they can motivate 5% more voters to the poll.

	Poll%	Vote%	Weigted%	Final%
Obama	50	0.85	42.5	49.6%
Romney	48	0.9	43.2	50.4%

 

所有跟帖： 

• 別看這些算卦了，星期二再看看就是了 :-)) -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:27:16

• 我會選奧八馬，不過要是羅姆尼當選 -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (70 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:33:34

• 羅姆尼當選我會活了很難過LOL -lilipp- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:35:28

• 我一定爭取幫你把羅姆尼搞下去 -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (44 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:40:16

• 不過呢 -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (45 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:44:07

• 師弟吧，充大。rommey借給obama一些經濟管理才能就好了。 -lilipp- ♀ (0 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:47:03

• 嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎嘎........ -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:51:27

• my prediction is -lilipp- ♀ (68 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 19:58:29

• 對沃侖教授這麽沒信心啊？ -aChineseBostonian- ♂ (19 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 20:02:28

• O8贏的可能性大一些。 -老看客- ♂ (0 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 20:15:04

• 很會算哦。 -Cherrylover- ♀ (38 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 20:20:25

• 回複：很會算哦。 -lilipp- ♀ (46 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 21:14:01

• 我希望羅姆尼當選，但是奧巴當選對我有好處。 -storit- ♀ (264 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 20:11:39

• how can you modivate 5% more voters all of sudden? -samwalton- ♂ (103 bytes) () 11/03/2012 postreply 21:14:39