Don't forget tonight's final presidential debate

On the average of all major after-debate polls, Obama won the second debate by about 6%, slightly out of the margin of error. But from most of these polls, the voters are still tilting to Romney  at accelerated rate. Noticeably Gallup poll gives Romney 7 points lead (52% to 45%) to Obama as of today.

Why?

In my analysis, what Obama won was on style and tactics but not on substance. He failed to stop Romney’s core message: the president failed his promise made 4 years ago and he would fail you again in the next four years if he was elected.

In the second debate, Romney appeared a bit too strong in front of the president, who is command-in-chief after all, and to a female moderate. On the Benghazi issue, he lost opportunity to punch Obama for the security failure. Romney also lost a few points by going too small such as keeping asking questions on Obama’s pension. At the end, Obama skillfully brought up 47% issue without letting Romney have change to respond. Overall, Obama won on the style and tactics.

For the most posters here including me, we are probably fortunate to be better off than 4 years ago. But as a nation, most statistics are pointing to a stagnant 4 years especially for those below middle income people. Obama’s rhetoric and maybe intention are use poor against rich. Ironically, the poor got poorer and the rich have been doing fine in the last 4 years. For example, stock price has covered most from the historical high, which has little effect to the poor but keeps the net wealth of the rich intact. The real problem is why the economy is still stupid even after borrowing $6T in the past 4 years and what is going to happen if another $6T for another same 4 years?

Today’s debate will be crucial for both candidates. The main topic will be national security and foreign policies, which is a slightly better setting for the sitting president who luckily have had no international crisis in the past 4 years. Whoever wins the debate on substance will probably win the election. Romney may avert it to domestic issues as much as possible and Obama may paint Romney a war monger who will bring the country to the Bush years. The debate could be as heated as the second one.

Let’s watch it.

所有跟帖： 

• 你對gallup的調查怎麽看？ 我怎麽覺得不靠譜呢？ 如果romeny領先 7%點， 那基本即使贏定了。 -sleepdonkey- ♂ (94 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 07:32:06

• Key is the swing states.National poll doesn't mean much if the r -wxc1204- ♂ (324 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 08:01:57

• Historically, Gallup has the highest accuracy among all major po -quantnj- ♀ (368 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 08:22:45

• that is why I questioned, why gallup have a such big lead, whil -sleepdonkey- ♂ (95 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 08:48:40

• this is why this race is so interesting. the numbers are -quantnj- ♀ (171 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 11:51:29

• Nate Silver has a good analyse about Gallup's national poll -Arianne- ♀ (254 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 12:59:25

• good writing -xdz2- ♀ (0 bytes) () 10/22/2012 postreply 07:44:02