我對“美國製造: 反外包趨勢從中國帶回就業機會”的評論

來源: Chris20119 於 2012-01-15 08:20:55 [檔案] [舊帖] [給我悄悄話] 本文已被閱讀：次 (11432 bytes)

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Yesterday I read an article on www.msnbc.com entitled “Made in America: Trend against outsourcing brings jobs back from China.” (http://rockcenter.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/14/10156162-made-in-america-trend-against-outsourcing-brings-jobs-back-from-china). Here is my comment. Welcome your comments and suggestion on my comment. Thanks.

These three BCG consultants do not seem to understand why the most of the production activities in the world take place in China nowadays.

(1) In terms of labor cost, hourly compensation costs in manufacturing in China is only 4.2% of those in the US in 2010 (http://www.bls.gov/fls/china.htm)

How about “The average Chinese worker is about a quarter as productive as the average U.S. worker”?

Hourly compensation costs in manufacturing in U.S in 2010 is $34.47 (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ichcc.pdf). What is the true labor cost assuming labor productivity (hours per 1000 products) is: China 100 hours and US 25 hours.:China Cost=100($1.45908=4.2% of $37.74)=$145.908, US Cost=25($34.74)=$868.5.

Taking productivity into account, the manufacturing cost in China as percentage of these in US creases 4 times from 4.2% ($1.45908/$34.74) to 16.8% ($145.908/$868.5) but still at relative low and very attactive level.

In order to have the same labor cost, the average Chinese worker must about a 4.2% as productive as the average U.S. worker or the average US worker must be about 23.8 times more productive as the average Chinese worker. This is very unlikely.

(2) The main attraction for American firms in China remains access to the large pool of 1.3 billion Chinese consumers. In fact, 46% of respondents in a 2007 American Chamber China Business Report were manufacturing in China for sales in the Chinese market, with only 23% manufacturing or sourcing in China for the US market (http://www.aasc.ucla.edu/uschina/labor_viewfromamerica.shtml)

(3) The vast majority (83%) of multinationals currently in China plan to stay there, according to the Booz Allen/AmCham survey (Blanchard, D. Just in time — The China misconnection. Industry Week, April 1, 2008).

If US companies bringing back manufacturing jobs from China, companies of other countries will stay or go there and win the China’s potential huge market.