如果全球氣溫上升2ºC
如果全球氣溫隻上升2ºC，已是萬幸了
一個多月前，習近平和拜登均在聯合國年會上發言【1】，習近平表示中國不再給新火力發電廠提供資金，拜登則表示美國將會給已經提供的援助基金加倍，兩位領導人的許諾，被譽為是全球對抗氣候變化的重要一步，是一件大事。中國的決定，使得以後世界上興建新火力發電廠更難【2】，但卻反映了當今世界的一個現實：發展中國家和落後國家的發展還沒起步，工業化遙遙無期，需要的是能源，巨大、穩定的能源往往來自火力發電廠，如果不能興建新的火力發電廠，那他們怎麽發展？他們能靠西方的援助嗎？能靠拜登“加倍”的援助嗎？在2015年巴黎的世界氣候峰會上，發達國家許諾給發展中國家和落後國家每年提供1000億美元的援助【3】，發達國家幾年前已經開始提供了，但據統計，2020年肯定達不到1000億，美國一直隻給28.5億，今年4月拜登才加到57億，這次翻番，是到114億，可是從曆史排放的數量分配，美國責任是434億美元
各自尋求方案？不就是各顧各，各管各嗎？
1. 表態
聯合國：大國裏每一個盡責了的
2. 資金
無窮多
美媒不願意給美國點名
, diplomats from Canada and Germany said on Monday in a joint statement that they expected “significant progress toward the U.S.$100 billion goal in 2022 and express confidence that it would be met in 2023.”
美國那點，基本上就是“責任全在他人”，拜登在白宮大罵中印，在通過黨媒透露出來，就是這種心態，老實說這你不能不聯想其帝國主義和殖民主義，奴役完了，掠奪完了，大家趕緊將民主、自由，人權，習近平不出席，有人推測說那是習近平給西方翻白眼，這也不無道理
作為一個陣營，發達國家承諾到2020年之前每年出資1000億美元，用來滿足上述要求。但是到了2021年秋，隻有790億美元承諾資金到位，而且其中大部分是貸款，是需要償還的借貸資金，而不是項目撥款或無償資助。
3. 中國
亞洲的艱難
2021.12.27
【中國的責任】
習近平的許諾還不小，但是
中國似乎是把希望寄托在技術上，而不是傳統的減排、零排放，因為從現有的水平，2060年不可能實現碳中和
中國這幾十年的高速發展，出乎了世界的預料，也出乎了中國人自己的預料（也許是中國不少人哄哄的原因）但這一段高速發展時期是建立在化石燃料的基礎上的，，
China has pushed back against calls for the UN climate conference in Glasgow to aim to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C.
The country's top climate negotiator, Xie Zhenhua, said the higher rise of 2C agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement had to remain up for discussion.
"If we only focus on 1.5, we are destroying consensus and many countries would demand a reopening of the negotiations," he said.
印度
印度的許諾是2070零排放，這是可以理解、接受的，印度要發展
By 2030 will increase #Nonfossil fuel capacity to 500 GW.
By 2030 India will get 50% energy from #renewable
By 2030 1 billion tonne carbon reduction
By 2030, more than 45% emission intensity reduction
By 2070- India will achieve #NetZero
4. 美國
美國能源結構
美國太舔了
可拜登不這麽說，怎麽說呢？老實承認說美國不行？
蘇利文：中國不行
但美國另一個黨媒挑明了，美國這點伎倆，中國看得清
There's been ongoing virtual meetings [and] the U.S. has been out in full force with Kerry’s team really focused on delivering at this conference,
that Chinese policymakers are skeptical of U.S. climate rhetoric as they’ve watched Biden scale back climate provisions of his infrastructure bill due to political gridlock.
A blueprint for how developed countries will contribute $100 billion a year to poor nations confronting climate change is set to be unveiled on Monday despite objections from the U.S. and other nations that almost derailed the announcement
不僅僅美國不能找個借口說議會製民主必須堅持，所以通不過也沒辦法，但通不過就是通不過，就是失職，民主也是失職，而且還給人一種民主反而礙事的感覺，況且從拜登當局對油價的態度，一切都是虛假的
美國捅了氣候全權大使克裏（John Kerry）一刀，說他是投降派，要拜登總統“軟下來”，蘇利文堅決表示“不跟中國做任何交易”，
which has identified both climate change as an “existential threat” and China as “the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century.”
拜登左右為難
The Biden administration rejects the notion that it’s traveling to Scotland empty-handed, noting its ambitious emissions target and pledge to double U.S. financial support for developing countries to adopt clean-energy technologies.
黨媒跟中國差不多
many world leaders may see those commitments as merely words on a page rather than concrete action
Sullivan disagreed蘇利文是反對和中國降溫的砥柱，大概有國安委坎貝爾帶頭的鷹派在做後盾，不過不急降溫也不隻是美國這麽想，中國也一直給美國吃冷饅頭，結果反而讓美國改變了策略，蘇利文也改了
The disappointing meetings ended up uniting Biden’s team behind the need to connect the two presidents
但“責任全在中國”. “There was unanimity in the administration at this point that we were not getting anywhere in the bilateral relationship at that level and we were concerned that Beijing was not being responsible in its management of the competition.”
為難：Kerry’s deputy, Jonathan Pershing, has told lawmakers that the U.S. government will need more time, five to 10 years, to move the global supply chain for solar panels away from Xinjiang
另一個來源：
兩年前，克裏還擔心輸給中國了，現在說中國不夠？
美國：我們美國自己不能出太多的力，但世界就應當出了，他們不出力，責任在他們，我們也沒辦法
But they also believe world leaders understand that the domestic talks are out of Kerry's control
Kerry’s Secret to Sealing a Global Methane Deal: Lower the Bar
More than 90 countries have signed the emissions-reduction agreement pushed by the U.S. and EU, which is non-binding and doesn’t include national targets
****然氣與中國****
中國和美國簽訂長期（20年）“巨額”液化天然氣協議
合同規定美國每年向中國供應400萬噸天然氣
但數量太少，2020年中國進口1315億立方米的天然氣（近一億噸）
讓中國從美國進口的液化天然氣總量在去年310萬噸的基礎上增加一倍。
中國天然氣產量為1925億立方米，但消費量達3240億立方米，這意味著有近1315億立方米的天然氣需求要依靠進口來滿足;同時，截至2020年末，中國天然氣消費對外依存度已達40%以上，其中，進口液化天然氣(LNG)占中國天然氣進口量的60%以上
2020年，我國共進口了6670萬噸液化天然氣，占天然氣進口總量的65.61%。2021年一季度，我國共進口了1955萬噸LNG
中國進口LNG的40%來源於澳大利亞、政治局勢或引發變數
澳大利亞對中國的液化天然氣出口在2020至2021年創下紀錄
產量（左）：億立方米（這是普通天然氣，不是液化）
進口（左）：萬噸
累計進口天然氣5982萬噸，同比增長22.9%。其中，LNG進口量為3978萬噸，占當期我國天然氣進口量的66.5%；管道氣進口量為2004萬噸，占比為33.5%。
中國的天然氣：進口在12-01-2020達138,371.132百萬立方米，相較於12-01-2019的129,730.000百萬立方米有所增長。中國天然氣：進口數據按年更新，12-01-1975至12-01-2020期間平均值為0.000百萬立方米，共46份觀測結果。該數據的曆史最高值出現於12-01-2020，達138,371.132百萬立方米，而曆史最低值則出現於12-01-2005，為0.000百萬立方米。CEIC提供的中國天然氣：進口數據處於定期更新的狀態，數據來源於Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries，數據歸類於世界趨勢數據庫的機構：能源行業 – 表 RB.OPEC.NG：天然氣進口。
2020年我國新增天然氣探明地質儲量達到1.29萬億立方米（20年）
2020年，我國進口天然氣10166萬噸(約1403億立方米)，同比增長5.3%。其中，液化天然氣進口量6713萬噸，同比增長11.5%，氣態天然氣進口量3453萬噸，同比下降4.9%。受國產氣快速增長和需求增速放緩影響，我國天然氣進口增速回落。天然氣對外依存度約43%，較2019年回落約2個百分點。
管道進口=
2020年，我國儲氣庫工作氣量達147億立方米，較2019年略有增長，約占全國天然氣年度消費總量的4.5%。（17天）
2020年，我國LNG接收站總接收能力達8700萬噸/年，同比增長14.2%，年新增接收能力1085萬噸/年，在建和擴建項目潛力巨大。若在建和規劃項目如期建成，預計2025年接收能力將接近1.8億噸/年。（一旦打仗，這1.8億噸就出問題了）
大丈夫能伸能縮;為了國家的繁榮富強，某些委屈我國還是能夠忍受的，畢竟是有”大肚量“的國家!
Deliveries from Australia were up 7.3% from the previous record of 28.6 million tonnes posted in the full year ending June 2020,
In 2020, total annual U.S. natural gas exports were 5.28 Tcf
spot trades in which cargoes are freely bought and sold account for 10-20 per cent of America’s 10bn cubic feet a day of LNG shipments
新：
****天然氣與中國****結尾
The American president seems to want to make decisions in the U.S.’s selfish strategic interest, but without the consequences that come with doing so
“gave us the rise of an authoritarian China”譯成“給我們帶來了一個崛起的中國”
美國自己的“價值”和氣候價值
****以上是其他****
第六條（Article 6），涉及如何利用國際碳交易市場來減少各國碳排放
5. 西方的責任
西方有沒有責任除了減排，還率先把大氣中的的二氧化碳回收，讓其他國家有個發展的機會？
20強峰會啥也沒有，
“I leave Rome with my hopes unfulfilled—but at least they are not buried,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said on Sunday.
拜登： singled out Russia, China and Saudi Arabia as standing in the way
developing nations are going to divide the burden of limiting emissions
Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India had urged G-20 leaders to give 1% of gross domestic product to developing nations to ease their transition away from fossil fuels
6. 對世界（中西）現狀的質疑
這種觀點也許隻在左派裏見到，但不得不把體製地價值觀提出來，西方的價值觀被自己懷疑，對於西方的自信來說不是什麽是值得自豪的事
美國冠疫死亡人數還是那麽高，高到拜登當局都不說了，認了，在國際社會麵前也不是什麽麵子，
中國的發展方式肯定有很多問題，對能源的依賴性太高，
《彭博》給20強領袖的描述沒有半點恭維
7. 如果上升超過2°C
生態
氣候
the 1.5°C target appears to many experts to be out of reach. A United Nations report in 2018 concluded as much, saying back then that average global temperatures will likely reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels sometime between 2030 and 2052 if emissions continue rising as they have been“如果”。但這如果絕對不是如果，而是必然，當今世界上沒有任何一個國家願意，能做出扭轉全世界局麵的行動。的確，西方已經在減排，但那是兩百年積累的結果，大家沒那個“福氣”
後果
Extreme heat
Rising sea levels：比現在升0.5米
這種預料是靠不住的，因為大自然的變化是非線性的，而且在極端環境高階導數占主導地位，預測0.5米，結果肯定是大於1米
Declining biodiversity
Melting Arctic sea ice
At-risk coral reefs
Declining global fisheries
Rising poverty
Health impacts
Food impacts因為災難是全球性的，如果出現糧荒，那麽就有饑民，很可能衝擊其他國家，美國有拉丁美洲（比較好控製），歐洲麵臨非洲和中東，印度也說不清，中國自身難保，那時恐怖主義是不是因為災荒而盛行？
It said the average sea level rise was 2.1mm a year from 1993 to 2002, but 4.4mm a year from 2013 to 2021, mostly the result of accelerating loss of ice from glaciers and ice sheets. Prof Jonathan Bamber at Bristol University’s glaciology centre said: “If we continue on our current trajectory, that rise could exceed 2m by 2100 and displace some 630 million people worldwide
4.4毫米的速度到本世紀末是0.5米，但速度在增加，所以十年後速度可能是每年1厘米了，二十年後2厘米，甚至還會上升。
什麽時候過2°C？
Up to 3bn out of the projected world population of about 9bn could be exposed to temperatures on a par with the hottest parts of the Sahara by 2070, according to research by scientists from China, US and Europe（預測）
目前隻有大約三千萬人
very narrow mean annual temperature band of 11C-15C (52F-59F)
海平麵上升不是第一大威脅，第一大威脅是氣候上升致使很多地區溫度遠高於2°C，沒法生活，到時多少難民？多少恐怖主義？
8. 現實、大局
近期的能源荒給石化產業繁榮
A pledge to end deforestation aims to protect ‘the lungs of our planet
This pledge to end deforestation is a lot less than it appears on the surface
20強峰會唯一清晰的答案：
不是那麽糟糕
你願意做出什麽犧牲？西方的廢話，沒行動，才是犧牲
印度：英國以為自己的麵子
人類生存：確有其事
人類還是在進步，不足，但不是瞎扯
中國：別光說，看行動
什麽人擔心氣候？
多渺茫
但是
真的嗎？
《華郵》也難說是權威性的，但至少說明數字鬆動餘地很大，非常不精確
While the Paris agreement calls for a more transparent system by the end of 2024, it could take until 2030 to get to robust reporting
主要是這位的工作：Phillipe Ciais, the French emissions expert
But it only looks at individual countries, not the whole world as The Post has done
痛宰馬來西亞，值嗎？
不過，即使二氧化碳排氣有所控製，氣溫還是會上升，因為太多，要排除、回收
另一個估計
如果20強峰會，聯合國氣候峰會的目標是2°C，我還有些希望，知道世界領袖們不是耍嘴皮。是當真，嚴肅；保目標定成1.5°C，就是應付、糊弄環保女孩
環保女孩們：欺騙！
信心：
The analysis reveals widespread agreement between four different groups assessing the climate outcomes of COP26. They suggest that current policies will lead to a best-estimate of around 2.6C to 2.7C warming by 2100 (with an uncertainty range of 2C to 3.6C).
最重大的成就是大家把意圖說得更清楚了，這樣就估計就跟準確了
四個組織（the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Climate Resource (CR), an Australia-based climate analysis group）的估計，比起各國現有的政策，氣候峰會還是有成就的，但1.5°C肯定是沒戲
拜登當局不論口頭上唱得多高，本質上還是爭霸
“I don’t see anybody thinking about global cooperation seriously.”
美國能接受這種以一個更大的世界為視覺，自己隻是其中一個成員，而不是獨一無二的領袖的安排嗎？
美國喉舌還倒打一耙
Russia, China or America would help one another in the face of an invasion of space aliens threatening us all.可是
The Washington Post reported last week that some in the Chinese leadership want to resist any substantial cooperation with America on climate issues until the United States dials down its pressure on China “over human rights, Hong Kong, Taiwan, trade and a range of other issues.”基本上對美國自己的責任、無為緘口不言，對美國的軍事圍堵置若罔聞，責任全在他人（戰狼是王毅所為？）
What we need instead of an arms race or a space race is an Earth race 這正是美國所做的，傻帽
Myself, I am going to declare America’s intention to win the Earth race瞎扯
佛裏德曼用一個想象中的“白等”來形容一個現實中的美國，以此攻擊中國
習近平強調，中方願本著相互尊重、和平共處、合作共贏的原則，同美方加強各領域交流合作，共同應對重大國際和地區問題、全球性挑戰，同時妥善管控分歧，推動中美關係重回健康穩定發展的正確軌道。希望美中關係全國委員會及關心支持中美關係發展的各界朋友堅定信心、繼續努力，為中美友好事業貢獻更多智慧和力量，更好造福兩國人民和世界各國人民
哈佛經濟學家把這解釋得很清楚，美國要爭霸，所以把一切看成零和，而中國還覺得有點共贏
沒人否認中國是個專製的國家，老百姓放個屁，政府都膽戰心驚，要把人抓起來，而美國自由是多多了，但美國的罪孽和成就一般大，可以說過去幾十年世界上最大的罪都是美國犯的，所謂自由與專製，民主對集權，看上去很有理由，實際上大家都是混蛋，所以如果美國把這些招牌拿出來，實際上是掩蓋不可告人的目的：爭霸
又賣國了
China used backroom negotiating to make itself a player, though far from a leader, at the global climate summit：美國人真的敢說
Wednesday's agreement is a first step more than a final deal, and rests on a shaky foundation — the friendship between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua
上麵又是瞎扯了，是習近平和拜登在背後催的
Mr. Xi wants a less volatile relationship with Washington as he focuses on domestic politics—specifically, claiming an unprecedented third term at a party conclave set for late next year
This is Canada. We aren’t just failing to address the growing climate crisis to come; we’re unprepared even for the impacts already here — in part because they keep surprising us with their intensity and in part because, in places across the global north, we can’t seem to fathom our genuine vulnerability.
【材料】
雜
中國
據群眾反應，《紐時》這篇文章內容還是挺客觀的，但小編把標題寫成反華，（at a tremendous cost to the global effort to fight climate change）
2.2億噸，比去年增加6%
Then stringent new legislation took effect on March 1. Mine managers who dig more coal than their government-approved capacity faced potentially long jail sentences
在中國，煤超產是要坐牢的（今年3月起），國企也沒這打算，得等韓正親自下令，大家才敢動手。
【2】世界各國都有私有機構繼續給興建新火力發電廠提供基金，也有這個需要。但是西方為了減排，公開暗地給中國使壞【3】，已經很難。
【3】似乎隻是從2020年開始
殘酷的現實：排氣差距（emission gap）
美國：
歐盟（加英國，EU28）：
中國：
印度：
美國的目標是2030年減排到2005年的一半。你可以問為什麽選2005年？因為2005年是美國碳排的峰值，美國所謂的“王者”領導，其實是耍了詭計，美國今年就已經幾乎比2005年降了20%了，本來這目標不怎麽難，但美國都有力不從心的樣子。
澳大利亞
拜登當局的外交政策基本上與川普無異，非常赤裸裸，就是一個反中，其他一切都是幌子，習近平在川普當政時沒能利用，拜登時還是處處處於下風，唯一反映的，是中國外交政策的無能。中國在台灣問題上被美國逼得無處可退，卻
前幾天拜登在東盟峰會上拜登說美國馬上要提出一個經濟綱領，但誰都知道那是在大家對美國缺乏經濟上的政策有意見，美國除了中國威脅論還是中國威脅論，到處比大家挑邊，連東盟公開說不挑邊，美國也假惺惺說不要大家挑邊，最後還是在威逼大家挑邊。大家都煩了，這次這麽說，就是一句空話，隻有美國黨媒
今天拜登在20強（G20）峰會前跟法國總統馬克龍會麵，算是上次捅了法國一刀後首次碰頭，為了給馬克龍消氣，但開口就說自己不知道法國被蒙在鼓裏，這是世界第一強國的領袖說的，就是說整個“奧英美聯盟”就像幾個軍師瞎折騰一番，領導腦子不好使，啥也不知道，就定下了。這就是21世紀大國決戰的水平
Representatives of the very European Union nations that Biden would address in his upcoming conferences appear to be among those to have realized this
中醫邊境衝突的原因外人不了解實情，雙方各自有各自的說法，但中印衝突是習近平外交上的敗筆，也許莫迪一直想跟中國攤牌，但把印度正是逼成敵人，是戰略上的失敗。
美國的策略是，如果美國能拉動其他國家，如印尼、印度、澳大利亞許諾，那麽中國就顯得很沒臉，隻能跟上，這就是說，
The six-hour meeting White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan had with his Chinese counterpart in Zurich on Wednesday may have done more to defrost the U.S.-China relationship than anything since President Biden took office
Yes, but: Asked for any single area in which the U.S. and China were currently able to work productively or had made any tangible progress, the official did not name one
美國的立場是絕對不會再任何領域讓步，這就出問題了
Sullivan reiterated the U.S. position that cooperation on climate change must be separate from other issues in the relationship, such as the genocide in Xinjiang
美國投降派：
氣溫預測
在2015年的巴黎協議上，各國“口頭”許諾要竭盡全力保證（本世紀）把全世界氣溫上升限製在2°C之內，盡量做到1.5°C之，但就目前的趨勢，2030年至2032年之間，1.5°C肯定是到了，2°C則是2052年【氣候科學有不準確的一部分，數據和目標有一定的估計程度，各種模型的預測也不盡相同】，這很難避免，因為現在氣溫比起工業革命之前已經上升了1.2ºC了，按照氣候組織Carbon Brief用回歸法推算，2024年就到了。
五種情景：
在1.5°C限度裏，現在全世界還有420吉噸（十億）的二氧化碳可排放（66%概率），相當於10年時間，但發展中國家還在增排，中國隻答應了2030年封頂，發達國家的排放量是在下降，但不足以補償發展中國家的增長
人類一步步走向滅亡：
國內扯皮不能是借口，因為這是同一個國家，如果國內不能達成協議，那是國家的領導階層不能達成協議，對於國外來說，“內鬥”根本是無關的事兒。最高法院要考慮是不是限製環保局給汙染製定規矩的權力，這是什麽？
But his administration has also approved a flurry of new oil and gas drilling permits on public lands, urged oil-producing countries to ramp up production to help lower gasoline prices and declined to stop major fossil fuel projects such as Line 3, an oil pipeline expansion in Minnesota that has sparked violent clashes between police and those protesting against its construction.
沒有碳稅，隻有獎勵
責任全在他人
“There’s no legally binding mechanism,”
對於一個自己空話連篇的政府坐在那兒給他人訓話，包括印度，真是
民主黨岌岌可危，美國民主也岌岌可危，2024年共和黨競選人都將是小川普，一個比一個極端
For starters, the administration could revoke the permits for pipeline constructions (Line 3, Line 5, and Mountain Valley) and declare climate change a national emergency – which would open up vast federal resources and capabilities. Biden could also reinstate a ban on crude oil exports which was lifted in 2015 under Obama.
This is indicative of the administration refusing to directly confront the fossil fuel industry. “Biden could reinstate [the crude oil ban] as soon as he wants to, but we’ve seen consistently an unwillingness to meaningfully challenge the fossil fuel industry in really any way,”
補充
A power crunch forced factories to slow output, while sporadic coronavirus outbreaks and stringent measures to curb them have damped consumption.
但出口沒受影響
China’s virus controls meant its factories won orders this year as large-scale outbreaks in countries such as Vietnam, India and Malaysia caused business closures
中國肯定覺得清零政策高明
Strong demand means China’s exporters have gained confidence to raise their prices by as much as 10%-20% from a year ago, partly to offset rising commodity costs, multiple Chinese factory owners told Bloomberg News recently.
Almost all of the increase in the value of exports in October may be due to rising prices rather than increasing volume, Guosen Securities Co. Ltd. economists wrote in a report Sunday.
While exports grew 23% trade in the first three quarters of the year, net exports contributed just over 20% of China’s GDP growth over the period, a fraction compared to government and household spending on goods and services, which accounted for 65% of the expansion.
large inequality and relied excessively on high investment rates and credit growth to hit robust growth targets
This growth model, they go on argue, "is far more state- and party-driven, critically meshing with and reinforcing the current autocratic and top-down centralised Xi administration
造勢
文：中國隱瞞了多少冠毒死亡人數？
紐約、倫敦這麽慘，武漢怎麽能逃過？
【資料】
南非：很多死亡不算在政府死於冠毒的數字之內，不過南非自己的的醫療工作者則覺得大部分都跟冠毒有關，但經濟學人覺得還不夠
But the excess-mortality method has failed to provide useful or robust global figures for the simple reason that most countries, and in particular most poor countries, do not provide excess-mortality statistics in a timely fashion
This work gives a 95% probability that the death toll to date is between 7.1m and 12.7m, with a central estimate of 10.2m.
All told we collected data on 121 indicators for more than 200 countries and territories. We next trained a machine-learning model which used a process called gradient boosting to find relationships between these indicators and data on excess deaths in places where they were available
The ranges for Africa and Asia are spectacularly wide. So they should be. The data from which to make strong predictions are not available, and in some places do not exist. Yet, wide as they are, they provide a more reliable picture than official tallies.
經濟學人對自己的模型很有信心，比各國政府“準確多了”，“在亞洲非洲，估計的範圍很廣，說明模型的波動性，因為沒數據，但沒數據也比他們政府強”。
這個模型有120個參數，然後扔給“人工智能大數據‘學習’”，得出結論，非洲死亡率跟歐洲差不多，印度和英國差不多，
東南亞：官方和模型都很低
這個想法是這樣的：如果不知道共產黨的動機是什麽，但最終的結果是共產黨保護了大家的生命，那麽共產黨是好還是壞？西方覺得共產黨總是壞，是其性質決定的，結果是無關的，同樣，西方的“民代”政府原則上總是“好的”，因為它們是“民意”，所以結果即使很壞，包括造成百萬人喪命，也隻是“瑕疵”，改了就好，就是不改，口頭上表示難過一下就行。
似乎專製清零多麽違反人性（新西蘭澳大利亞也實行了清零）
滿足的：
中國終於找到一個知音了
西方從不信，到譴責，到無奈，說你們自殘還不知道
Max Fisher
So about that Atlantic cover story blaming global democratic decline on a handful of anti-American leaders
文：美國不是民主
英國的貴族民主
德克薩斯少數，喬治亞劃分選取
民調
Klein interview,
美國的“保守派”通過憲法牢牢綁住了美國將能往哪個方向發展
Equally criticized
James Q. Whitman’s “Hitler’s American Model: The United States and the Making of Nazi Race Law”
文：美國國際秩序
國際法，摔跤
aerial firepower is readily apparent in satellite imagery of eastern Syria
大家用到新疆的手段，這也用得上
No one doubts that the majority of those trapped at Baghouz at the end were civilians
Yet the alliance’s intelligence proved completely wrong. Thousands upon thousands of women and children—and hundreds of ISIS fighters—continued to pour out of the town during pauses in hostilities
即使是正義戰，時間長了，大家都疲倦了，正義戰也成了大屠殺，炸炸炸。夷為平地【死亡人數好像不多】，但肯定不分青紅皂白
所謂的美國軍工產業，其實是把美國的世界軍事霸權融入到國民經濟生活的一部分，美國第一是美國維護自己生活水平的必要條件，軍事霸權是保證美國第一的關鍵，結果軍工產業不是這個產業壟斷、操縱了整個國民經濟，而是它成了民眾生活的一部分，深得人心，這是美國經濟、外交軍事化，萬事訴諸軍事解決，美國人從來不會對他人掉淚的原因
美國人從來不會覺得自己是個問題
文：“美國”作為上帝
Packer has maintained his belief in a liberalism capable of perfecting itself and in the United States’ exceptional role as the agent of this perfection
“The so-called greatness of the Greatest Generation is a fiction,” she argues, “suffused with nostalgia and with a need to return to some finest hour.”
Samet dismisses Ambrose’s œuvre, including the nineteen-nineties best-sellers, “Band of Brothers” and “D-Day,” as “less historical analysis than comic-book thought bubble.” Obsessed with notions of masculinity and chivalry, Ambrose indulges in “a fantasy that American soldiers somehow preserved a boyish innocence amid the slaughter,” she writes. If anything, the boyish innocence may belong to Ambrose himself, who admits that he grew up venerating veterans of the Second World War, a youthful hero worship that, Samet notes, “tends to overwhelm the historian’s mandate.”
with its “explicitly messianic agenda” of showing us a cohort so packed with honor and honesty and self-sacrifice that it was, as the newsman writes, “birthmarked for greatness.”
文：美國會容忍一個什麽樣的中國？
在被問及美國是不是要“圍堵”（遏製，containment）中國時，美國外長布林肯昨天在接受《紐時》采訪時這麽說
【資料】
【2】This is not about containing China. It’s not about holding China back...upholding the rules-based international order
【】So a couple of things here. First, from my perspective this is not about decoupling from China. Trade, investment in both directions and with other countries is important to all of us, and done the right way – with a level playing field, with playing by the rules – it’s a good thing. It’s a good thing for us. It’s a good thing for China. It’s a good thing for many other countries. So that’s not the issue...It’s not about decoupling. It’s not about stopping trade. It’s not about stopping investment. It is about making sure, as I said, that it’s done in a fair way: that we have a level playing field, that there is genuine reciprocity in the way China engages the world commercially and the way the rest of us engage China. And it is also about making sure that when it comes to particularly sensitive areas
不能提供技術用於迫害，強製勞工
【】美國能不能保證4年後不變卦？
【】So if we can start by showing results in making the right investments in ourselves可不就是說已經出問題了？
April 15, 2018
“My attitude toward China is, do well economically, but you cannot use your military to expand your power position in the region. Is that fair? No. Is there any justice to that? No. We get the Monroe Doctrine and you don’t. That’s just the way it is, I’m sorry. . . . We are containing China and the Chinese believe we are containing them.”
對美國來說，加入到美國主導的“國際秩序”不是任何一個世界成員的權力，而是恩賜，這種想法來自霸主的角度是非常好理解的，
因為霸主有特權，
China’s acceptance of rules for world trade drafted by the United States and its allies without Chinese participation
But on Thursday Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, signalled the US was working on a new “framework” for American economic engagement with other countries in the region, as part of the effort to compete with China’s economic might
美國的小圈子是很凶，很狠的，但是從經濟的角度來看，美國一直沒實質，這次有多少呢？
還是空頭
ROBERT KAGAN: We have conflicting interests. At what point do those conflicting interests reach the point where there might be an armed conflict? I would say, I want China to flourish economically. Of course, we’re going to compete. We compete with Germany,
we compete with England, we compete with everybody economically because we want to have better products
and sell more than they do, but we also wish them to do well.
My attitude toward China is, do well economically, but you cannot use your military to expand your power
position in the region. Is that fair? No. Is there any justice to that? No. We get the Monroe Doctrine and you
don’t. That’s just the way it is, I’m sorry. But we cannot allow China to use its military power to establish
regional hegemony. There is nothing we can do about economic hegemony. That’s just a reality. I would say,
forget about that, cooperate, open the world to them, and wish them the best. The BRI, we’re not going to stop
it anyway.
14 FOREIGN POLICY at BROOKINGS
AVOIDING WAR: CONTAINMENT, COMPETITION, AND COOPERATION IN US-CHINA RELATIONS
But militarily, I believe that it has already been demonstrated by what everybody said, that if we are tough enough,
determined enough, and clear enough, they understand what the boundaries are. It cannot be a good outcome
for a Chinese leader to get into a war with the United States if only because, if it goes wrong, which it could, he’s
probably out of power. So, they’d have to be very confident either that we’re going to back down or that they can
win.
My final point is, we ought to make sure that we have the military capability so that they don’t believe that they’re
going to win, and the declaratory policies are clear enough so they don’t think we’re going to back down. If we can
do those two things, it’s going to be tense, but I think we can make it through this security dilemma and strategic
competition that we’re in
文：中國造船業對美國威脅有多大？
世界造船業是三分天下，中韓日
但中國並不總是“排第一”，韓國的造船業很強，政府支助很大，一直是名列前茅，但跟中企一樣，韓國和中國的船企一直處於產能過剩的地步，連年虧損，勉強支撐著活下去，去年和今年因為窩家使得海航翻身，訂單暴增，據說夠3年的，但照樣虧損
造船業為水上交通、海洋開發和國防建設等行業提供技術裝備的現代綜合性產業，也是勞動、資金、技術密集型產業，對機電、鋼鐵、化工、航運、海洋資源勘采等上、下遊產業發展具有較強帶動作用，對促進勞動力就業、發展出口貿易和保障海防安全意義重大
三大主流船型及特殊船型
幹散貨船，油船，集裝箱
中國海軍造船速度（Thomas Shugart）
今年3月估計：
11月預測：
Today, only 25 percent of America’s 114 commissioned surface combatants (cruisers, destroyers, and littoral combat ships) are less than a decade old. By comparison more than 80 percent of China’s 141 destroyers, frigates, and corvettes have been commissioned in the past decade
有一個說法，中國的登陸船噸位遠遠不夠攻台，但有人這麽說：
中國類似的民用船隻足以保證中國有足夠的運兵能力
訂單
市場份額
中韓日歐按船型市場份額
民主黨和覺醒時代
一年前法輪功旗刊大紀元就堅定地指出川黑白左所推銷的斯蒂爾卷宗「Steele Dossier」其實是冤案【1】，那時倒川陣營川黑轟轟烈烈已經快四年了，（第一次）彈劾剛剛過去，但其熱情有增無減，各種聲討運動依舊此起彼伏，幾天前，司法部終於把蒂爾卷宗主謀繩之以法，宣告了這場鬧劇的終結，可是（美國）媒體和公知和美國整個體製，整個國安網，整個軍工產業一樣，對這一冤假錯案認錯、承擔責任的不多，要麽輕描淡寫，要麽不予理會，令有些（左）媒體臉紅，到了實在不好意思了的地步【2】。闖王下台後，民主黨失去了攻擊的對象，美國左派和激進派轉向覺醒（woke）思潮，以覺悟逼大家表態，從路線、立場逼大家站隊，這也難怪拜登他老人家民意越來越低，從半年前的52%跌到39%【3】，還有幾乎60%的人覺得拜登大政府太大了，70%覺得經濟越來越糟，對經濟的悲觀到了2014年以來最差的地步。很少總統上任不到一年就這麽慘的，拜登剛剛通過大撒幣把錢送到大家手裏，但大家照樣不買賬，因為工資都給通脹吃了【4】：
可以說民主黨中期選舉岌岌可危。
麵對這一嚴峻的局麵，民主黨有什麽對策呢？
有。加碼覺醒。據說，民主黨已經把眼光放在“後拜登時代”，把希望寄托在新一代身上，尤其以副總統賀錦麗和交通部長布蒂吉格為代表的新一代。稍微對美國政體有一點了解的人都知道，賀錦麗幾乎是有史以來民望最低的副總統，但根正苗紅，據黨媒報道【5】，在氣候峰會上賀錦麗和布蒂吉格風光遠高於總統拜登，這點，民主黨也清楚。
民主黨對兩位也不是完全擁抱，大家知道如果闖王重新出山（現在幾乎是定局），拜登抵擋不住，兩人肯定被血洗。
拜登給賀錦麗攤派了一些任務，沒一樣有成效的，賀錦麗說這不公平，她承擔的，都是難題，而且拜登常常心不在焉，不知道自己的重點是什麽，所以不能怪她，但黨媒都不買賬，據說她的整個班子都投降了【6】，這也有白宮的問題，沒幫忙，也沒把她當真，但賀錦麗本人總的就不是這個料，人緣也不行
She's perceived to be in such a weak position that top Democrats in and outside of Washington have begun to speculate privately, asking each other why
她的親信覺得都是拜登圈子把她晾在一邊，造成她什麽樣不成，但民主黨內的對手已經悄悄串謀，一旦時機成熟，就把她趕下台
支持者則說本來副總統就是備胎，不是什麽是角色，她已經行駛了她的使命了，不過，大家發現賀錦麗這個人一貫無能。據說她的班子通常都是無能之輩，不能幫她出力，而家裏人經常在辦公室左右一切，這估計是她籠絡人手的原因，她本人還總是猶豫不決，不能成事。
盡管拜登也不把她排除在外，但拜登的班子覺得他那一套自己適用的辦法在賀錦麗身上有沒有用，大家也不盡力，如果賀錦麗將來有望入主白宮，這個與國會交往訓練的機會就沒了
Harris' staff has repeatedly failed her and left her exposed, and family members have often had an informal say within her office. Even some who have been asked for advice lament Harris' overly cautious tendencies and staff problems, which have been a feature of every office she's held, from San Francisco district attorney to US Senate.
賀錦麗對拜登班子也有意見，覺得沒處出力，通過內幕透露出來，不知道是不是明智之舉，但這也許是黨內一種觀點，因為拜登選副總統，就是給黨指定將來的接班人，那麽拜登自己就應當有責任保證她成為一個接班人，難道拜登要違背自己的初衷嗎？賀錦麗幫裏的還懷疑拜登班子裏和黨內有人要培養布蒂吉格來取代自己，這更反應民主黨內部的派別鬥爭
That's different from when Harris has created problems for herself, White House aides believe, such as when she didn't push back on a student who accused Israel of "ethnic genocide." West Wing aides weren't going to clean up after that.
可是小事一件又一件，慢慢積累就成小怨，新仇舊怨，賀錦麗自己班子裏也人心動搖，
"It is unfortunate that after a productive trip to France in which we reaffirmed our relationship with America's oldest ally and demonstrated U.S. leadership on the world stage, and following passage of a historic, bipartisan infrastructure bill that will create jobs and strengthen our communities, some in the media are focused on gossip - not on the results that the President and the Vice President have delivered."
但賀錦麗本人、班子做事沒頭沒尾，大家不能不有猜疑
最讓賀錦麗丟臉的，是接手拜登難民潮那爛攤子，注定沒戲，拜登還不給後盾，她幹不下去，退下來消失了，大家就罵賀錦麗不行。結果這個政府不到一年內部就開始鬧分歧。
跟蹤拜登當局外交政策的人熟知，拜登的班子往往盯著一個目標，周圍的事、物全視而不見，經常意外傷人，往往得不償失，賀錦麗的待遇就是這麽經曆，與拜登班子人才濟濟的聲譽完全相反，有自顧不暇的感覺。
如果單方麵從政府班子運作所遇到的障礙，拜登的策略顯得雜亂無章，缺乏戰略性，沒有長遠的計劃，好像除了排華反華政策暢通無阻之外，推行自己的政策很困難，民主黨內部遠比共和黨不團結，因為共和黨好說，什麽都隻要“反對：就行，而民主黨要執政。但這沒法掩蓋民主黨一個隱患，沒什麽領導，拜登就這個水平，賀錦麗有沒有領導能力不說，群眾基礎很低，絕對不可能是個總統的料
共和黨幹脆躺平，不跟你玩：
【資料】
【1】美司法部公開密檔 通俄門消息來源不可靠 | 通俄調查 | 斯蒂爾檔案 | 美國司法部 | 大紀元
【】Anne Applebaum: Even if every single word in the Steele dossier was wrong, that would not change the fact that the Russians sought to manipulate the US election using hacked material and a disinformation campaign. Nor would it change the fact that the Trump family welcomed this intervention.Also, given the fact that the Russians sought to manipulate the US election campaign using hacked material and a disinformation campaign, it was not stupid for the FBI to take the Steele dossier seriously. Was a mistake to publish it, but that wasn't the FBI's fault
【2】Axios AM
【3】Post-ABC poll: Economic discontent rises, Biden approval declines - The Washington Post
【4】社會主義能不能救美國？
【5】Harris, Buttigieg in spotlight amid questions about Democrats' future - The Washington Post
【6】Exasperation and dysfunction: Inside Kamala Harris' frustrating start as vice president - CNNPolitics
【7】James Carville thinks the Democratic Party has a “wokeness” problem - Vox
【8】'Woke' discussion simmers for Democrats | TheHill
【】Biden and aides telling allies he is running in 2024 amid growing Democratic fears - The Washington Post
【】“Wokeness” Is Not the Democrats’ Problem
【9】How Republicans Have an Edge in the Emerging 2022 Congressional Maps - The New York Times
【10】Republican Consumer Sentiment Is Worse Today Than It Was During The Height Of The Financial Crisis
【】Biden’s Standing With Black Voters Hasn’t Bounced Back After Tough Summer - Morning Consult
【】Kamala Harris’s staff members leaving opens up questions about her management - The Washington Post
“With Kamala you have to put up with a constant amount of soul-destroying criticism and also her own lack of confidence. So you’re constantly sort of propping up a bully and it’s not really clear why.”
The inevitability of Kamala Harris - The Spectator World
The White House, it would seem, has realized this. The last week has seen a well-executed rollout of Kamala puff pieces, launched on Monday with dueling profiles — one schmaltz and one serious — in the San Francisco Chronicle and Los Angeles Times. These were followed by a CBS News piece lavishing her with praise for her heretofore unknown role in getting the bipartisan infrastructure bill across the finish line.（裏麵有接鏈）
Kamala Harris’s Allies Express Concern: Is She an Afterthought? - The New York Times
Telegraph World News on Twitter: "????????Democrats desperately scrambling to find a potential successor to Joe Biden in 2024 are whispering about a potential nuclear option that could see Kamala Harris nominated to the Supreme Court" / Twitter
Columbia | SIPA on Twitter: "Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg could agree to run together in 2024 if Biden does not run again, giving the Democratic Party a very strong ticket that would seem like a natural continuation of Biden's first term, writes @LincolnMitchell. @CNNOpinion | https://t.co/VlBR3t2Ueg https://t.co/QMHz9rF2Sm" / Twitter
Dems Panic As Party Loses Grip Over Hispanic Voters | ZeroHedge
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1，人類監測氣象的曆史不超過300年；
2，人類研究氣候的論據依靠假設；
3，沒有人能證明現在是不是間冰期；
4，氣候是科學問題，不是選舉總統，不是人多就是真理。