笨狼發牢騷

發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
個人資料
笨狼
笨狼 (熱門博主)
給我悄悄話
  • 博客訪問：
正文

十

(2021-08-18 14:15:05) 下一個
【命運】
At least 69,000 Afghan soldiers, as well as 47,000 civilians, died in the conflict
 
 
 
（社論）History repeats itself in the tragedy of Afghanistan | Financial Times
Joe Biden’s miscalculation will haunt the rest of his presidency
THE EDITORIAL BOARD
 
 
 
【帝國的邏輯】
"The Taliban is a force in decline" says Major General Eric Olson, who conducted the U.S. military's counter-insurgency battle in Afghanistan until last month...What turned the tide? In a word, nation building."
"The Taliban on the Run", Time, 28 March 2005
沃爾特有自己的想法：
 
 
 
 
 
 
Luce
But as the president on whose watch the concluding fiasco took place, Joe Biden’s name will be indelibly linked to it.
he was partly elected on a promise to restore competence
“This comes as something of a body blow to Biden’s ‘America is back’ message. Everyone thought he was going to be different to Trump.”
 The first is the volume of US military equipment, The second is whether Biden ignored intelligence estimates suggesting the Taliban could recapture power on a far more rapid timeline than the six to 18 months the White House was saying. The third is Biden’s failure to consult fully with Nato allies
A US Army Chinook helicopter flight engineer sits on the ramp during a training exercise at Bagram Airfield, Afghanistan
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, told the European parliament that the departure was “a catastrophe for the Afghan people, for western values and credibility and for the developing of international relations”. Armin Laschet, Germany’s possible successor to Angela Merkel after September’s general election, described it as “Nato’s biggest debacle since its founding”. Even the reliably Atlanticist British failed to conceal their disappointment with an America that had failed to keep them abreast of the details of its pullout
The further the distance from Washington DC, which is split along fiercely partisan lines, the greater the blurring between Biden and Trump. “This looks like America First except that its officials can speak French,”（布林肯）
Biden’s foreign policy priorities are the three Cs — China, Covid and Climate
“The joke was that in 1989 the ISI defeated the Soviets with American help,” says Sarah Chayes, an Afghan expert who was a senior Pentagon adviser. “Now the ISI has defeated the United States with American help.”
“The question is has Biden learned from that episode?” asks Chayes. “I think the answer is probably no. He made up his mind on Afghanistan long ago.”這句話的意思是，撤軍導致極端主義複蘇、蔓延、壯大，最終把美國拉回去，這是（理性）主戰派的立場
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
【崩潰前的黑暗】
 
 
【婦女】
 
【臉，麵子】
Afghans attempt to climb onto US military plane
 
 
美國訓練的軍隊是一支依賴美國在背後支持的軍隊，離開美國，所有武器、情報（偵察手段）、運動方麵的優越性將會消失，阿富汗軍和塔利班軍隻能麵對麵，槍對槍打，人數、地利和意誌成了主要的因數。
western power was in a way absolute, overwhelming, but also very disconnected and superficial
It was so separated from Afghan society, that there were in fact two worlds: the world of Afghanistan, and the world of embassies and military bases. And they were not connected whatsoever
美國和西方一直生活在自己的一種幻覺之中，對外界的真實世界毫無感覺，也不屑去認識、感受
If you, during the last months, would tell the embassy staff, or NGO worker in Afghanistan: go out and click with the local people and understand them truly, they would laugh into your face. The idea that we could learn from Afghanistan was laughable to many of these people
Biden’s Afghan speech didn’t help. That he just said “Well...we'll go home.” Because if you want to be a superpower美國第一，拜登比誰都急
 
 
美軍為了自己因毫無準備造成的慌亂撤退，把機場封閉，大部分占為己有，而阿富汗普通老百姓入地無門
 
Assurances Biden gave at a news conference on Friday about security around the Kabul airport were contradicted within minutes by network reporters on the ground — and later by his own administration
 
人從軍機上掉下來，不是阿富汗人急、慘，而是美軍無能製止
Ultimately what has to be said about Afghanistan is that if you are stuck in Kabul and being evacuated you are lucky to be French or German, Emirati or Indian - not American. That is new
 
A source tells me, “Situation [in Afghanistan] is rapidly deteriorating… We’ve had Americans get beaten throughout the night.” One of them, an American woman, was beaten “twice” even though she was carrying a U.S. passport.
 
這位發言人於是直接甩鍋美國務院，說他們才是估計人數的部門，又說美國人出國不是都會登記，所以難以獲得準確數字。18日，美軍方承認目前軍隊行動範圍僅限於機場，無法為散布在喀布爾的美國人開辟安全通道，讓他們抵達機場撤離。
 
 
 
【崩潰】
 
 

 

They were slowly losing a war that Americans once overwhelmingly supported. Kagan was right
1. Afghan will follow one direction
2 "half hearted"?
3 US can change it
blaming it all on poor execution
no accountability
直接把美國的動機寫在紙上
 
 
《阿富汗文件》一書摘要（一、二）
 
Behind the scenes: Senior U.S. officials privately express little confidence in the Afghan security forces, citing military incompetence, disorganization and poor communications skills rendering them unable to adequately coordinate U.S. air support to protect territory against the Taliban
美國人除了把鍋甩阿富汗身上，也不問問自己，這20年自己幹嘛了，
A Biden State Department spokesperson told Axios that Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. envoy, is in Doha, where the Taliban has its political office, to "press the Taliban to stop their military offensive and to negotiate a political settlement."
"If the Taliban continue down this path," the spokesperson added, "they will be an international pariah without support from the international community or even the people they say they want to govern."
美國反對派說，談什麽談，製裁啊，好像那就行了
美國自己製造出來的，不能說是進步的一種嚐試，但缺乏對後果考慮，在真正要承擔後果時，退縮了
 
 
美國政府對阿富汗局勢鎮靜自如，一切皆在“意料之中”，
he Taliban has also captured the country’s second and third-largest cities, Kandahar and Herat
“But senior U.S. officials are privately acknowledging that the Afghans appear psychologically defeated — and there was insufficient accounting for the psychological consequences of the long war”美國又找到借口了，“都想清楚了，就是這點忘了”
At the same time, Biden's diplomatic team in Doha, Qatar, was trying to talk sense into the Taliban. But events on the ground have made a mockery of the peace process
 

 

馬賽爾斯：這次大逃亡揭露最深刻的美國政府的無能，從判斷、決定上的無能到行動上的無能，美國政府可以高唱對台灣堅如磐石般的承諾，但一個無能的政府的承諾值幾個錢？
 
美國政府真的無能嗎？自然不是，但這就是“紙老虎”這個叫法的意思了，紙老虎在被捅破之前還是老虎，很厲害，
 
美國英國外長紛紛給王毅打電話（王毅找英國），未必是要求中國，但至少是去穩住中國，讓中國別添亂，這就看出他們的被動地位
 
You know, not only soldiers but also all security contractors were forced to leave. And they took everything..even the software to operate airplanes..So when you see Biden saying, why don't Afghans fight..they are very much being prevented from doing so
But we expected empathy, strategy and wisdom from Biden. His messaging targeted Trump’s base, not rest of the world, and not allies, past or (we’ll need them) future
 
拜登在接受采訪時話都說不清，在台灣問題踩雷，
 
【天亮】
 
 
Was he so determined not to be cowed by the Pentagon, as perhaps he felt Obama was, that he ignored warnings he should have heeded
主戰派操縱了美國輿論
 
懇求
Reassurances From Taliban, but Fearful Afghans Look for the Exits - The New York TimesThe E.U. and NATO try to coordinate evacuations and limit refugee flows
 
 
 
印度：
 
 
雜亂無章，群龍無首，老鼠當道，越問回答越丟臉，防長說“不行啊，咱沒這本事”
 
7月，其實這是廢話，因為就一份報告，不能左右大局判斷
 
不能不說美國這種開放是中國沒有的，中國一個聲音，是缺乏自信的最突出的反映
16 commanders of American or ISAF troops Afghanistan, ten commanders of CENTCOM, six Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, ten Secretaries of Defense, two special envoys to the region, seven administrators of USAID, 11 Ambassadors Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, seven Secretaries of State, nine Directors of the Central Intelligence Agency, seven Directors of National Intelligence, ten National Security Advisors, five chairmen of the House Armed Services Committee, six chairmen of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and Select Committee on Intelligence, seven chairmen of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, their staffs, and several dozen secretaries, deputy secretaries, undersecretaries, deputy assistants, desk officers, station chiefs, and division or brigade commanders have directed this defeat. 2The war in Afghanistan is not the failure of a man, or even of a few men, but of an entire leadership class
 
 
這次大逃亡阿富汗精英都流落了
 
【燈塔派】
瘋了
 
America in Kabul was distant, yet all-powerful
The editor responded that America had left, to which the official replied: “They have not left, they never leave, they are everywhere!”
What you have in Afghanistan is a country that has been under foreign rule for 20 years. I am always surprised that people think a country that has lost its independence can still have a strong state and be capable of addressing its own challenges
馬賽爾斯：很多人忘了，阿富汗政府是傀儡，從來就沒獨立過，什麽是屁事都得美國人點頭，你還罵它不爭氣，它哪有什麽氣？
美國軍隊就是一支占領軍，
 
 
 
【現實】
 in U.S. foreign policy, when the call sounds to “do something,” the outcry is unlikely to stop until the bombs drop
中國的冷酷和美國的黑心
They overwhelmingly support the president so far, after a decade of democratic rule has failed to put food on the table. A street vendor sparked the revolution by lighting himself on fire in 2011, but now young men self-immolate by the dozens each year.
一人是烈士，百人成街頭景象
 
【幾個月、幾年前】
拜登從阿富汗撤軍
中國傻帽，真的嗎？
頌歌
2014
 
【數據】
 
 
Since 2001, the US has spent $2.26 trillion in Afghanistan, the Costs of War Project at Brown University calculates. The biggest chunk – nearly $1 trillion – was consumed by the Overseas Contingency Operations budget for the Department of Defense. The second biggest line item – $530bn – is the estimated interest payments on the money the US government borrowed to fund the war
 
Since 2001, the US has appropriated more than $144bn to Afghan reconstruction. Much of that money went to private contractors and NGOs the US government tasked with implementing programmes and projects to build Afghanistan’s security forces, improve governance, aid economic and social development and combat illicit drugs
 
was the $88.3bn spent training and equipping the Afghan army from May 2002 to March this year
 
For example, a 2017 report on US efforts to train Afghan security forces found that Washington’s “politically constrained” timelines “consistently underestimated the resilience of the Afghan insurgency” while overestimating the capabilities of Afghan government forces.
 
perpetuating Afghan dependence on US forces rather than creating an Afghan army that could stand and fight on its own
 
This is rank nonsense, and Biden knows it. The United States did not do enough—and even enabled the current onslaught.
The United States is begging the Taliban for assurances they will not attack U.S. personnel as Washington scrambles to evacuate its personnel, leaving its long-standing Afghan partners to fend for themselves as the Taliban hunt them and their families down.
The failure to create a functioning state was particularly catastrophic when it came to the Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Interior Affairs, which controls the police. From the beginning, the United States and NATO partners struggled to develop efficacious training programs. Training concepts and doctrines changed often as different parts of the recruiting and training mission came under different contractors and national oversight. The United States consistently sought shortcuts
which was more resource intensive and provided by contractors, training these militias was still dependent on contractors but less so. Americans tried to justify equipping militias by applying Afghan names to them, such as Arbaki,
 
The United States insisted on the country’s security architecture but has retrenched from its willingness to pay for it. Since 2014, Washington has provided about 75 percent of the $5 billion to $6
the U.S. Congress appropriated around $3 billion for Afghanistan’s fighting forces, the lowest amount since fiscal year 2008.
盡管美國的大部分支出與國防有關，但美國表麵上投資於阿富汗治理的其他領域。截至6月30日，自2002財政年度以來，美國已為阿富汗的重建和相關活動支出了約1449.8億美元的資金，其中886.1億美元用於安全(包括46億美元用於禁毒舉措)；362.9億美元用於治理和發展(包括43.7億美元用於禁毒舉措)；41.8億美元用於人道主義援助；和159.1億美元用於機構業務
Although these numbers are staggering, much of U.S. investment did not stay in Afghanistan. Because of heavy reliance on a complex ecosystem of defense contractors, Washington banditry, and aid contractors, between 80 and 90 percent of outlays actually returned to the U.S. economy
In many cases, U.S. firms even defrauded Afghans. In 2010, one military official with the International Security Assistance Force explained to New York Times journalist Carlotta Gall that “without being too dramatic, American contractors are contributing to fueling the insurgency.”
As the sham of peace talks faltered in March 2020, the Trump administration threated to withhold $2 billion in assistance if the Afghan government didn’t return to the negotiation table. Equally appalling, the United States forced the Ghani government to release more than 5,000 hardened Taliban prisoners in return for hundreds of government officials taken captive by the Taliban
 
What the US did with its $2.3Trillion in Afghanistan in 20yrs? The number of Afghans living in poverty has doubled, and the areas under poppy cultivation have tripled. More than one-third of Afghans have no food, half no drinking water, two-third no electricity - Ashok Swain
 
And the cost? Unimaginable. Incalculable. Or to put it more accurately, $2.261 trillion as of April, according to the Watson Institute for International & Public Affairs at Brown University
 Oh and Afghans killed, at least 150,000. (This all according to the AP.)
America supports and has deep affinity for the people of Taiwan but when it comes to military intervention over that island — with its Mandarin speaking population of 23 million, 100 miles off the coast of China — I actually hope Beijing is right
 
US troop levels in Afghanistan. 2002 - 2020. Chart showing US troop levels in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2019 2020 figure as of December.
Total civilian casualties in Afghanistan. 2009-2020. .
 
 
 
 
難民
Map showing con?ict-induced displacements in Afghanistan, by province of origin, Jan 1 to Aug 9 2021
 
美國堅持資金用在美式裝備上，還有其他報道
 
Chart displays statistics on Afghanistan war deaths
 
 
美國“援助”並沒有到阿富汗的又一證據
2022.01.01
 
【中國】
We have made-- kept every commitment. We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with-- Taiwan. It's not even comparable to talk about that.
拜登為了挽回麵子，公開說美國將捍衛台灣，不是說漏嘴了吧？這有代價嗎？
Most Chinese counterparts I know are unclouded by any optimism about their capacity to transform Afghanistan. They harbor no ambition to run Afghanistan or to turn Afghanistan into a model of their own form of governance. Beijing is master only of its own interests in Afghanistan, which are predominantly animated by security concerns
 
Largest military exercises since Cold War come to Western Pacific as U.S. seeks to reassure allies of military commitments
 
 
 
背景：
阿富汗解放組織史略
 
 
【記者】
 
 
Vice President Kamala Harris smiles after introducing President Joe Biden.
美國副總統賀錦麗，最可笑的角色
 
做美國軍機是要買路費的（後來好像美國政府否認）
一著不慎滿盤輸
 
CNN’s @clarissaward  in Kabul: “I'm sitting here for 12 hours in the airport, 8 hours on the airfield and I haven't seen a single US plane take off. How on Earth are you going to evacuate 50,000 people in the next two weeks? It just, it can’t happen.”
 
 
【時間】
 
 
 
楊建利和美國自由派還真信這個。想楊建利這般死挺美國民主體製，將世界未來寄托在美國的不斷完善至少，是可以理解的。撤軍，拜登時做出了一個勇敢的決定。但近日阿富汗政府崩潰和美國人被塔利班踢屁股趕著逃走，全世界一邊覺得不可思議一邊看笑話的
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
沒責任
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
塔利班實際上有優勢，美國當前的駐軍力量不足以與之抗衡，之前的和平是幻覺（calm status quo）
 
 
【雜】
阿富汗
美國又導演一出西貢大逃亡
 
美國乞求向塔利班放過美國大使館
 
TIME Magazine Cover: The Taliban -- Dec. 17, 2001
2001.12.07
 
 
 
美國的“可信度”這一問題在美國也有激烈的爭論，國防鷹派大多以“撤軍即失去可信度”這一立場堅決反對撤軍，支持撤軍的陣營裏，有的避免回答這一問題，說美國在阿富汗已經失敗了，不承認隻是否認現實，另一派又有兩種說法，一是美國的可信度是建立在美國能不能認識自己的錯誤，有沒有理智的判斷之上，撤軍就是反思、認錯、接受現實的反應，所以反而
 
 
 
2020.11.02
 
《紐約客》）大牌記者格拉瑟（Susan Glasser）
 
He said this was if China was looking towards a "peaceful resolution of the conflict" and a "truly representative and inclusive" government
當美國自己都不能保證一個“有代表性”的政府的時候，布林肯這“如果”太奇葩
Effectively US is telling Afghan refugees to go to … a third country，These are Afghans who may be targets of Taliban violence due to their U.S. affiliations
 
 
 
 
 
 
Only one president has had the courage to do the right thing in Afghanistan. It is the same man who advised we do this in 2009 when he was Vice President. It takes courage because he knows that he will receive the critiques his opponents are heaping on him now
中國如果有以為能改造阿富汗的能力，那將是自掘墳墓。隻有當塔利班主動、真摯、徹底懇求中國援助的時候，中國才應當謹慎地，有選擇性的投資。現在已有的投資怎麽辦？答案：沒多少
 
 
美國“人造國”宏圖
 
 
被扶植的傀儡政府是在美軍環境下郵寄產生的寄生蟲，民主創業者（political entrepreneur）
 
When the Soviets left the Afghan government lasted 3 years before falling. This government may not even last 3 months. The US designed the Afghan state to meet Washington's counterterrorism interests, not the interests of Afghans, and what we see today is the result
 
 
記者
 
華郵：馬上崩潰
薩奇：塔利班難道不擔心自己的國際形象嗎？
今天說隻能幫幾千，而且要其他國家“臨時幫美國一把，安頓這些美國賣過命的阿富汗人，等美國忙過來之後，在轉到美國”，大家對即使是這麽一個許諾也都不信，不是美國忙不過來，而是美國中期選舉，拜登不敢，過了以後誰說拜登不會推掉？
https://youtu.be/sf_oSh13zRM
歐洲人是美國人的傀儡、幫凶
美國一直不允許阿富汗政府有任何獨立性，任何決定都是華盛頓或美軍做出的
 
難民：歐洲就像多年前敘利亞難民一樣，被美國耍了還沒清醒
 
 
塔利班確實很黑暗，沒人覺得塔利班禁止婦女外出參加社會活動可以接受，美國人千辛萬苦要去解放阿富汗婦女也值得稱道，隻是現在她們馬上又要被打入深淵，那這場實驗到底是值得，還是一種幻覺驅使下無謂的衝動，誰也說不清。
 
 
David Sedney, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia under President Barack Obama, put it even more bluntly: “The lesson here is that nobody should trust the United States, whether it’s Ukraine or Vietnam or Taiwan or any country.”
 
一個月前
阿富汗
 
當時美軍撤出，連阿富汗政府都沒通知，就是軍方對拜登露了一手，這個吐槽說得清楚
 
 
前兩年的寧靜給美國人一種隻要美國人在，那怕是隻有幾個美國人，世界都能安寧，其實是塔利班有了撤軍的時間表，不願意無謂犧牲而已
 
 
“If things keep going this way, they’re risking a Saigon moment,” he said
 
阿富汗
 
 
 
鷹派，
 
 
事實隻是塔利班的槍杆子嗎，還是塔利班有群眾基礎？
 
 
拜登在阿富汗崩塌後發言
 
 
太晚了吧？
As Afghanistan unravels, European nations watch warily, worried about migrant flows
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
one intelligence assessment indicated that Kabul could be isolated by the Taliban within the week, possibly within the next 72 hours, but stressed that does not mean the militant group would enter the capital
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ghani & co fled to Uzbekistan or Tajikistan. Saw their helicopters flew out of Arg at 3:20pm. At Mohib’s residence in Arg, they left 3 land-cruisers full of dollars causing a fight among his guards while looting. I hope money is recovered. How much did they manage 2get away with?
 
 
 
 
They are also willfully not contextualizing questions like "how could the endgame have gotten this slipshod?" with the reality that the people charged with carrying out the Trump/Biden policy consistently opposed it and wanted the implementation to go badly
 
 
@EvansRyan202: There was no stalemate. The Taliban had been winning this war for many years.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani left presidential palace without telling other political leaders; ‘He left them in the lurch’
That General Dostum is the type of person we supported in the Afghan government is part of the reason today's events are happening.
 
 
 
Lockheed Martin: 1,236%
Northrop Grumman: 1,196%
Boeing: 975%
General Dynamics: 625%
Raytheon: 331%
 
 
 
 
 
 
【補充】
 
The Afghan state is not so much collapsing before our eyes as revealing itself as a fiction.
1) U.S. officials obscured/hid evidence of deep-rooted corruption, low morale & even “ghost soldiers/police” who existed merely on payrolls
2) too much focus was given to preparing the Afghan army to repel a foreign conventional army rather than a home-grown insurgency like the Taliban.
嘴上都是主義，心裏全是生意”
 
【新】
小布什一句話：“他們恨我們民主，他們是自封的；他們恨我們自由；恨我們宗教自由；恨我們言論自由；恨我們的投票、集會自由，不同意見的自由”，一代人帶著理想踏上了聖戰的征途。20年後，但
 
 
 
美國轟炸把阿富汗變成、逼成敵人
“At first, there was no support for the Taliban,” says Mullah Omari, a Taliban military commander who currently serves in Day Mirdad. “It was when the Americans started killing civilians that people started supporting us, giving us food, bullets, and offering men.”
 
 
楔子
The Americans, meanwhile, were suffering their own delusions
On the Friday afternoon before Kabul fell, the White House was starting to empty out, as many of the senior staff prepared to take their first vacations of Biden’s young presidency
Saturday evening Kabul time, Ghani and Blinken spoke by phone. Hoping to avert a showdown in the capital, Blinken sought Ghani’s support for a U.S.-brokered arrangement with the Taliban in which the militants would remain outside Kabul if the Afghan leader would step aside
For the United States, the scope of defeat was total
At the State Department, top brass, including Wendy Sherman, Blinken’s deputy, and Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, were frantically calling foreign ministers to ask them to help with evacuation efforts and to coordinate a statement signed by 114 countries urging the Taliban to allow safe passage for evacuees. This, they realized, would be a historic evacuation effort
 And I knew — everyone here knew — that an era of hope, however uneven and misplaced, was about to end
the Taliban are touting the fact that beyond the airport, casualties of war — not long after 50 to 100 people a day were being killed — are now close to zero.
 some who were deployed to Afghanistan have died by suicide over the last few turbulent weeks.8月14日，死因未知
to check in on their mental health and see how they were handling the fall of Kabul.
很多中學畢業就去參戰的年輕人一生成長期就是阿富汗，這目的沒了，空的，假的，人生的價值也就沒了
Many veterans have been questioning if their service was all for nothing and whether their friends lost their lives in combat in vain. Many others are grappling with numbness—anger, with the idea that the U.S. military has abandoned the very Afghans they were deployed to protect for nearly two decades
a generation of writers, reporters, foreign policy hands, think tank denizens and more became deeply identified with these missions
These are people who look more fully at the costs of war, human and otherwise, who think seriously about what we are trying to accomplish as a country in these various engagements
"who hate admitting to themselves that the mission they’ve committed their adult lives to has been a miserable failure"
 
From its inception in 2001 to its ignominious end, the U.S. war in Afghanistan has been defined by lies.
Perhaps the best thing about the Taliban advance over the past few weeks was that local officials didn’t resist it, thus sparing the population further violence
In 2019, the Afghanistan Papers proved that the U.S. government had been lying about the war’s progress for years. But in our hyperreal time, no one really seemed to care, least of all American citizens who didn’t directly suffer the consequences of their nation’s imperial adventures
美國巨大的代價是全社會承受的，而不是某一個政治家，也不是軍人，更不是謀士或軍火商。這就是美國民主，大家不願意打仗，但大家一開始上上下下權力支持侵入阿富汗，之後政客們和精英們就以民主的名義串改了原來的目標，把全國帶上一條災難之路
We are not, as Madeleine Albright infamously affirmed in 1998, the “indispensable nation” able to “see further than other countries into the future.”
since Franklin Delano Roosevelt, that the U.S. can use its overwhelming power to reshape foreign nations along American lines. This project has failed time and again, and will do so in the future.
For the past two weeks, I’ve worked alongside an ad hoc group of veterans, journalists and activists with connections to Afghanistan who are trying to coordinate the evacuation of not just our Afghan friends but also strangers
Never have I witnessed a greater, swifter collapse of competence than what I have seen with the U.S. evacuation of Afghanistan
empathy and service. Events in Afghanistan this week indicate this promise was, at worst, false and, at best, limited大家真信
Mr. Biden showed no contrition for his administration’s policies, which have sentenced tens of thousands of our Afghan allies to life under the yoke of the Taliban. This is an oppressive, barbaric regime that has shown no respect for the rule of law, no respect for women’s rights. There is no Taliban 2.0.
It shouldn’t fall to our service members to clean up the mess made by this catastrophic withdrawal.
What is the value of service? How can the Biden administration claim to know, when it seems so willing to squander that value in pursuit of ill-laid plans?
 
the George W. Bush administration chose to reformulate the mission in terms of a systemic transformation across the region as the sine qua non of victory
U.S. power was applied to transforming cultures, a near-impossible goal whose ancillary consequences had never been fully considered.
 to abandon fashionable post-Cold War shibboleths about “institutions trumping culture and history” that have shaped our strategic decisions since
 
“Tomorrow the Taliban will start surrendering their weapons,” the Taliban’s spokesman, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, announced on Dec. 7, 2001. “I think we should go home.”
But the United States refused the group’s surrender, vowing to fight on to shatter the Taliban’s influence in every corner of the country.
By the end of that decade, the United States had backed itself into a mission at odds with itself: to impose a new order from the top-down while seeking to destroy a group — the Taliban, representing a crucial rural Pashtun constituency — that was building its own from the bottom up
In essence, the United States was trying to enforce a lasting peace between Afghanistan’s factions while standing in the way of reconciliation with one of the most important ones
But the United States rejected that model from the outset, refusing even the Taliban’s modest terms of surrender: that its leader be allowed to return home after fleeing to Pakistan
That system was foreign to many Afghans, in some cases displacing local, traditional institutions.
It was the era of counterinsurgency, in which American-led troops would pacify an area by force, install an outpost of the central government, then wait for locals to embrace the new order
美國要按自己的模式重新塑造阿富汗，是一種強加在上的方式，自上而下，而且要融合這個社會，而一個社會要變，要改，必須由下而上，塔利班代表著一股底層的勢力，把塔利班排除在外，一是與合理的由下而上的方式對立，而是自然排除了一大部分人，是個自身的矛盾
 
It was autumn 2013 and I was on a Nato-organised trip
assurances of the success in securing Lashkar Gah were accompanied by a categorical refusal to allow us one foot outside the British wire
“勝利”一直是一種“信念”，而不是事實
At Camp Shorabak, we were taken to see Nato’s mission to train Afghan soldiers in the use of the new and alien US weaponry that Congress had compelled them to adopt under the influence of the US military-industrial complex
步槍：阿富汗熟悉蘇製衝鋒槍，但美國一定要兜售美國產品
In each doorway stood a Georgian soldier in full body armour, holding an automatic rifle poised with the safety catch off, the Caucasian nation displaying its eagerness to join Nato through its readiness to shoot our Afghan allies on the spot if they made a move to attack their teacher
For far too long, far too many western officials and journalists convinced themselves of the absurd line that the Taliban was simply a creation of Pakistan without deep roots in Afghanistan, and that their ideology was alien to Afghan tradition
 
7月初已經秘密進入喀布爾了，4月開始滲透
It was the ultimate victory over America’s high-tech military, whose air surveillance proved powerless against this army of pedestrians and motorcyclists
The grumblers of today were themselves involved in this debacle, the most expensive act of self-deception of the century so far
 
The term self-deception isn’t often used in its plural form, but it should be in the case of Afghanistan. The misconceptions from the West started at the very beginning of the intervention, when Washington thought the military would be sufficient to pacify the country, to the end, when Berlin was still asserting that it would only take just a bit longer to reverse the situation. Another fallacy was the assumption that a nation could be built and protected if enough money was invested and enough training undertaken. The Afghans, too, were guilty of self-deception, with the government and a large share of the population believing for two decades that the U.S. would never pull out.
 
The UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1368, legitimizing the coming attack as an act of self-defense.
 
It hadn’t been self-defense at all, but a planned attack...If you couldn’t defeat the Americans, you could apparently use them for your own purposes.清除異己
"The moment when U.S. Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad brought back the warlords." They were the men who had destroyed the country in the earlier civil war, but who had helped the U.S. government of Bush
一開始就不是“民主”，而是一個犯罪集團，塔利班反而是揭竿而起，為民除暴的義士
When a new police chief was then appointed and he established a regime of horror in Kunduz, beating farmers and destroying their market stands when they didn’t pay sufficient protection money, the German troops stood by ...
By then, Germany and the U.S. had invested so much capital, both financial and political, that they had become hostages of their own project不能丟臉啊，要幹下去
Washington, he said, didn’t want to expose Karzai.
 
This narrative of foreign occupation was so useful that it was deployed by the Taliban and the Afghan government alike
wanted to buy peace in the provinces under their control. They contracted construction projects and sponsored local media outlets ...
 "We have never really believed in anything," says the old militia leader Hadji Jamshid in the north, who already fought against the Taliban 25 years ago. "They fought for the wrong thing. But damn it, they’re prepared to die for it. We aren’t."
 
Most pressing, though, could soon be the question as to how the Taliban can rule at all. Already, several million Afghans are dependent on food aid from the World Food Program. Western Afghanistan is currently suffering under the worst drought it has seen in a decade. The state coffers are empty and the central bank’s assets are largely stored outside the country, where they are inaccessible. Whether the West likes it or not, if aid deliveries are not made and assistance is not provided to the country’s health-care facilities, many people will die
Soon, the humanitarian situation may force the West to do something it spent the last 20 years trying at all costs to avoid: Support Taliban rule in Afghanistan
 
New documents prepared for Congress by the Defense Department show the total number of all kinds of contractors in Afghanistan has dropped by more than half in the last three months from almost 17,000 as of April to only 7,800 this month, with fewer than 2,700 Americans among them
The number of logisticians and maintainers has also more than halved from 5,500 in April to 2,150 now
Some are flying out of Bagram Air Base, a monster American stronghold once home to 40,000 military personnel and civilian contractors at the peak of the war here. Today, there are 3,300 U.S. troops in the entire
Contractors are a force both the U.S. and Afghan governments have become reliant on, and contracts in the country are big business for the U.S. Since 2002, the Pentagon has spent $107.9 billion on contracted services in Afghanistan
 
war on terrorism
 
Congress gave $2.02 trillion to the top five weapons companies — Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Boeing and Northrop Grumman — between 2001 and 2021
 
The single biggest generator of corruption was the U.S. military’s sprawling supply chain. The Pentagon paid Afghan and international contractors to deliver between 6,000 and 8,000 truckloads of fuel, water, ammunition, food and other supplies to the war zone each month.
THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS
A SECRET HISTORY OF THE WAR
The single biggest generator of corruption was the U.S. military’s sprawling supply chain. The Pentagon paid Afghan and international contractors to deliver between 6,000 and 8,000 truckloads of fuel, water, ammunition, food and other supplies to the war zone each month.
 
Transportation costs were exorbitant. Most convoys had to travel about 900 miles from the nearest seaport at Karachi, Pakistan, to reach the main Khyber Pass border crossing at Torkham. Then they had to cross patches of hostile Afghan territory to reach U.S. bases scattered throughout the country.
 
A convoy of 300 trucks typically required 500 armed guards as basic protection. On top of that, trucking companies paid fat bribes to warlords, police chiefs and Taliban commanders to guarantee safe passage through their turf. A 2010 congressional report called the system “a vast protection racket” that was underwritten by U.S. taxpayers.
 
My wife was the corporate director of quality for a US contractor with construction work in Afghanistan. I can tell you that this is absolutely true. ?@Sarah_Chayes?
 
 
號召繼續下去
揭露本質
 
真實情況
For two decades, American leadership on the ground and in Washington proved unable to take in this simple message
when, in 2011, an interagency process reached the decision that the U.S. would not address corruption in Afghanistan
Cronyism, rampant corruption, a Ponzi scheme disguised as a banking system, designed by U.S. finance specialists during the very years that other U.S. finance specialists were incubating the crash of 2008. A government system where billionaires get to write the rules
Pakistan
Hamid Karzai
 
 
 
 
One: For 20 years, politicians, elites and D.C. military leaders lied to us about Afghanistan
Two: What happened last week was inevitable, and anyone saying differently is still lying to you
 
 
武裝承包商抱怨利潤受損
 
 
 
Almost everyone else in Washington seemed determined to fight not just one but several “endless wars” and do so, well, endlessly.
Mark Milley, were appalled. This was not the way to conduct policy—with no consultation, no input, no process for gaming out consequences or offering alternatives.”
“你不能這樣，政策可不是這麽定的，不行。不征求意見，不商量，不考慮後果，不考慮其他方案。怎麽行！”
 who had repeatedly thwarted the commander in chief’s demands over four years.
had become convinced that the Pentagon was working against him, boxing him into staying in countries that he broadly viewed as terrorist‐?filled gas stations in a desert
When I visited Afghanistan a decade ago, some officers were refreshingly candid, but only when we were talking informally, without their superiors present
不過，他們預測對了，是不是故意搗亂？
They painted a vivid picture of Kabul falling to the Taliban if U.S. forces withdrew precipitously in the final days of the Trump presidency. In previous conversations with Trump, they had raised the specter of Saigon in 1975, where images of American helicopters evacuating people from rooftops as the North Vietnamese took control of the capital city would become engraved in the historical record of the Vietnam War. The unsubtle warning: This would be Trump’s legacy if he rushed to the exit.
 
The first 20 years of America’s occupation of Afghanistan cost, by one estimate, 241,000 lives (including 2,448 U.S. troops and 71,000 civilians)
To assess the withdrawal, mainstream media go to the ‘experts’ who were wrong or lied about the war for the past 20 years
 
2013
“The biggest source of corruption in Afghanistan,” one American official said, “was the United States.”
 
參見【現實】【數據】裏的
 
美國在為不行喪命的幾位士兵哀悼，在為美國的冒險反省，但沒人為幾十萬在美國這場被奪去生命的阿富汗人花費幾秒鍾，這正是帝國的邏輯。這次撤離，美軍有再次使用無人機阻擊自殺勇士，而且是在居民區，傷害的平民更多，大部分是兒童
Update: US military says bomb in car bomb blown up by drone strike in Kabul may have killed others.
Local officials say five or six civilians, including children, were killed.
Capt. Bill Urban of CENTCOM: "We would be deeply saddened by any potential loss of innocent life."
 
崩潰，癱瘓了的拜登當局
麵子
謊言
阿富汗的苦難
From 2001 to 2014 the Afghan forces suffered 14,000 dead, but from 2015 to 2020 an estimated 45,000 were killed. While the US has suffered just under 2,500 combat deaths in Afghanistan since 2001, they lost 93 servicemen from 2015 to 2020. The Kabul airport casualties were the first US combat deaths in Afghanistan since February 2020
With the exception of its special forces, its morale plummeted when western logistical and military back-up was suddenly withdrawn, leaving forces spread widely, isolated and unable to move casualties out and supplies forward
But for Biden to pass the buck to ordinary Afghan soldiers is dishonourable. If anyone is to blame, it is not them. Rather, it is a tribute to their bravery that despite such poor leadership
Further, Biden’s story that US forces were in Afghanistan to “establish a democratic government” is inaccurate. Since at least 2014, the role of US forces there, who by 2020 numbered only 2,500, was simply to act as a backstop for the Afghan forces, not to nation build. With that relatively modest military commitment acting as a keystone, the Afghan army had been able to contain a well organised and well-funded Islamist insurgency
 
 
美國一直是阿富汗這腐朽、金玉其外敗絮其中，充滿普世價值的廟宇的締造者和維護者
Those interviews reveal there was no consensus on the war’s objectives, let alone how to end the conflict.
(1) Year after year, U.S. officials failed to tell the public the truth about the war in Afghanistan
“The strategy became self-validating. Every data point was altered to present the best picture possible.”
The Lessons Learned interviews contradict years of public statements by presidents, generals and diplomats. The interviews make clear that officials issued rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hid unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable
(2) U.S. and allied officials admitted the mission had no clear strategy and poorly defined objectives
意思是，不知幹什麽，於是找借口，接著待下去
（3） Many years into the war, the United States still did not understand Afghanistan
were destined to fail because they were based on flawed assumptions about a country they didn’t understand.
（4） The United States wasted vast sums of money trying to remake Afghanistan and bred corruption in the process
drenching the destitute country with more money than it could absorb. There was so much excess that opportunities for bribery, fraud and corruption became limitless
 
 
帝國機器
 
殘酷
 
故事，沒什麽價值
 
[ 打印 ]
[ 加入書簽 ]
閱讀 () ┆ 評論 (0)
評論
博主已關閉評論