笨狼發牢騷
發發牢騷，解解悶，消消愁
正文
月初（6月1日）我對油價想了想，做了個歸納。
頁岩油：咱眼巴巴在等
頁岩油：咱眼巴巴在等
總結：
需求
不會與改善，還是疲弱。
美元
隻會幫倒忙。
供給
石油輸出國組織
即使有尼日利亞加拿大的問題，石油輸出國組織產油量還是處於高峰，所以別指望有啥幫助的。加拿大已經在回複，一定會會來的；伊朗伊拉克還會增加；利比亞增的成數遠大於減的。整體還是不會大降。
美國頁岩油
價格臨界點。上周油井個數微增，有點暗示大家喘過氣來了。上馬，能維持，但沒啥賺的。不過如果油價停滯在$50，難道大家永遠等著？總會有人開工的。
就是說供需基本平衡，但供給還是略占上風，加上短期停產影響大，油價會在$48-52（美元）間波動。能打破這一均衡僵局的隻有美國頁岩油，故此將他們逼入進退兩難的地步。也就是說我覺得$50是個中樞點。過了兩天有人說Oil May Not Be Ready To Breach $50，我不會那麽斷然。
隨後油價旋即上升，衝擊$52，上升的契機是美央行（聯儲）暗示6月加息暫停，美元頓時黯然。大家還記得在前一周聯儲還再三表示美國經濟讓他們放心，會放開 手考慮加息步驟。美國經濟學家衣冠楚楚，學問大經驗多，，說話頭頭是道，其實是無知的代表，中國央行不論做啥事兒都沒有任何必要覺得比他人丟臉。
油價上升的架勢像是隨時隨刻衝破$52，不過$52壓住了。
周線
漲到頭沒勁，不漲了，大家就找個借口，說跟著美元走。
我上次就強調諸國因動亂、自然災難造成的停產是大家判斷供給平衡的主要原因，而不是真正的供給均衡，因為供給還是還是很強，尤其是伊朗，而世界經濟依舊毫無起色。不過世上從磚家商人到期貨大嬸都像是不解。
《華爾街日報》Unplanned Outages Added $15/Barrel to Oil Price
Energy economist Phil Verleger Jr. says the rise in oil prices from $35 to $50 a barrel in recent weeks “seems entirely explained” by unplanned production outages in Canada, Nigeria and elsewhere. These outages have removed millions of barrels a day of production from the global market, effectively erasing the oversupply of crude that has persisted since mid-2014.
《彭博》能源記者Javier Blas
下麵是幾個主要因素。
伊朗
伊朗除了產量不斷上升，出口能力也大大改善。以前提到伊朗有了油，苦於沒船運，現在解決了：
Iranian Oil Exports Soar As Shipping Companies Return To Iran
Javier Blas：
#Oil Watch: @Shell to lift next month its first cargo of #Iran's crude in 4 years, joining European groups @Total and @Cepsa #OOTT
Javier Blas：
#Oil Watch: @Shell to lift next month its first cargo of #Iran's crude in 4 years, joining European groups @Total and @Cepsa #OOTT
Does Iran Have The Upper Hand In OPEC Oil War
Iran has been a dark horse since the lifting of sanctions, increasing its market share quickly to the surprise of many investors.
Iran has resorted to offering large discounts to its Asian customers, undercutting the Saudi and Iraqi prices to levels not seen since 2007-2008 in order to regain their market share, reportsReuters.
Ian Bremmer, the president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told Reuters that the Saudi’s looked set to increase production after speaking with executives and a member of the Saudi ruling family.
Iran has been a dark horse since the lifting of sanctions, increasing its market share quickly to the surprise of many investors.
Iran has resorted to offering large discounts to its Asian customers, undercutting the Saudi and Iraqi prices to levels not seen since 2007-2008 in order to regain their market share, reportsReuters.
Ian Bremmer, the president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told Reuters that the Saudi’s looked set to increase production after speaking with executives and a member of the Saudi ruling family.
沙特在伊朗麵前自然不會讓步。
加拿大野火災已經過去，以前覺得加拿大產油量會很快恢複，但近日有人說因為油價低落的關係，加拿大的產油業資金奇缺，設備失修多時，故此維修、更換恐怕成問題，估計還得等到。
中國
中國還在買。
data out of China showed that oil imports stayed strong in May. China is the world’s second-largest oil consumer and news about its economy often sways the market.
While oil imports fell over the month, due to planned refinery outages, they rose around 40% compared with the same month in 2015. Chinese oil imports in the first five months of the year, combined, were 16% up on the same period last year, according to Commerzbank.
While oil imports fell over the month, due to planned refinery outages, they rose around 40% compared with the same month in 2015. Chinese oil imports in the first five months of the year, combined, were 16% up on the same period last year, according to Commerzbank.
然而這還是不能說中國需求回來了。以前說過中國政府現在允許民間煉油廠獨立進口原油，今年民間煉油廠是進口的主力，國企壟斷多年，缺乏競爭力，現在隻能說民企來搶飯來了。但最近進口好像遇到了瓶頸：
印度
大家對印度經濟還是眾口交讚，對其原油需求還是樂觀，成了主力，據說印度原油進口增速已超過了中國（不足為奇）。印度對原油很依賴，原油價格大跌，對印度政府財政預算幫了一大忙，也讓通脹率穩住。這是個預測：
Javier BLas
Another consultant ups its 2016 #oil demand forecast on the back of US gasoline and #India: JBC Energy sees now 1.4m b/d y-on-y growth
雖然趨勢還是不景氣：
整個心態已經轉過彎來了：
Shale King Returns to Fracking Wells After Oil Rallies to $50
Rebound In Oil Prices Changes Drillers’ Mindset
Rebound In Oil Prices Changes Drillers’ Mindset
The Wall Street Journal reported that there are a few spots where companies are stepping up drilling activity
A handful of companies telegraphed their intentions months ago before oil bounced up to $50 per barrel.
A handful of companies telegraphed their intentions months ago before oil bounced up to $50 per barrel.
資金狀況也改善：
Javier Blas
US #oil and #gas companies have raised YTD nearly $17bn in new equity (down from $20.4bn in same period of 2015)
Javier Blas
ICYMI: US crude #oil exports hit a record high of 591,000 b/d in April on European and Caribbean demand #OOTT #shale
但大局樂觀：
油井個數連續兩周稍微回升。
預測
磚家們說法還是滿天飛
Saudi Arabia Raises Oil Prices to Asia But Cuts Prices to Europe
The prices increases are a sign that Saudi Aramco is “getting more bullish on demand"
How Far Can #Oil Rally? Options Investors Bet on Surge Above $100
The prices increases are a sign that Saudi Aramco is “getting more bullish on demand"
How Far Can #Oil Rally? Options Investors Bet on Surge Above $100
美國能源署預測世界產油量還會增加：
這與我的判斷一致。
黑馬：
市場是怎麽說的？
我的期貨價格圖較直觀：
至2024年底。數據出自芝加哥期貨交易所
市場上油價還會上升，但即使到了明年底，也不過$54。千萬別激動過頭。
The Wall Street Journal reports that net bets on rising oil prices represented 40 percent of all the front-month and second-month U.S. oil futures contracts in 2015 and 2016
見：美國油媽
見：美國油媽
最後一句話，一個月內還在在$48-52（美元）間波動。
油價動蕩指數也說目前波動幅度不大：
嗬嗬，批評的有道理。我從小語文就差，大白字一大堆，現在依賴古狗拚音輸入，很糟，老眼昏花有看不清，錯了也看不見。
待會兒有時間再複查複查。
回複 '藍天99' 的評論 :
我平時寫此類隨想多了，很少有人瞧得起的，也懶得到處張揚。不過謝謝您客氣話，還是業餘水平，大家交流交流。