原油創今年新高

原油今天突破$45，2016新高：


《路透社》將此歸咎為Falling output and weaker dollar push oil to 2016 high。其實美元沒呈現弱勢，隻是無聲無色：




隻是有姚奶奶在背後撐腰，大家有恃無恐。不過大家想過沒有，美元又央行撐腰，要貶，但貶到哪？

美元是世界上最大的貨幣，占小頭的是英鎊、歐元，日元就更小了。人民幣說是超日元了，但還難說，即使超了，也沒過多少。美元要貶，英鎊歐元日元人民幣就得升。聯儲厲害，其它央行是好惹的嗎？日本歐元區比聯儲還狠，別說了。英國正折騰“脫歐”，英鎊壓力極大，今年跌了不少。人民幣，別說分量小，中國銀行、熱錢能讓人民幣大幅升值嗎？

美元往哪兒貶？

故此主要的原因乃美國頁岩油產量持續（微量）下降（上周數據），給大家增加了希望：

美國（周）產油量又微跌：


油井個數再次減少：


稍稍放眼幾個月，油價也不是那麽紅火：

日線，6個月

隻是大家清楚，一旦有些小趨勢，在目前世界上貨幣泛濫的時代，大家一擁而上：




美元也一般：
兩年來，對衝基金從來沒有這麽看空美元
《彭博》Hedge Funds Become Dollar Bears for First Time Since 2014: Chart


【原油美元皆瘋倉（crowded trade），不知好歹】

除了炒手之外，大家對油價的強勢還是半信半疑，有對此《華爾街日報》有個簡報：
Oil Rally Marches On In Spite of Analysts’ Calls for Its End
華爾街銀行的疑問：

Goldman Sachs (April 22): “While this recent rally has the potential to run further to the upside, with the biggest risk that the Fed chooses not to hike in the coming months despite improving Chinese activity, we believe that it is not yet driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals. In oil, we do not anticipate a sustainable shift in fundamentals until 3Q16, which creates near-term downside risks.”

Barclays (April 25): “Though prices have continued to rally in the face of otherwise bearish news, we are not yet convinced that prices will remain here or go even higher this quarter. Though physical indicators are supportive, oil market participants seem to be caught up in a broader risk-on attitude. Still-elevated inventory levels, the return of some disrupted supply, further boosts to Saudi and Iranian supply, and increased non-OECD product exports all have the potential to move prices lower over the next several months, especially if broader macro sentiment shifts.”

Morgan Stanley (April 25): “Oil continues to rise on the back of macro funds, CTAs, index/ETF flows and investors fearful of missing out. Yet, fundamentals remain bearish and are set to deteriorate further, esp if prices move higher. Non-fundamental rallies can last for several months and near-term catalysts may be lacking, but a macro unwind could cause severe selling given positioning and the nature of the players in this rally.”

Energy Aspects (April 25): “It is all well and good that the market seems to be finally waking up to stronger fundamentals but at least in our view, the bullish expectations are perhaps coming from the wrong corners. … Q1 16 oil demand y/y growth was just 0.6 mb/d, the slowest since Q3 14, and the combination of weak economic growth and mild weather (both in the winter that has just passed and likely in the upcoming summer) is likely to cap 2016 oil demand growth at below 1 mb/d. Similarly, the declines in US crude output have been shallower than expected, with many producers likely to report higher production than they had previously forecast, as several drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) have been run down. US crude production only just fell below 9 mb/d according to the latest weekly EIA statistics, and the declines in US crude oil output are likely to be shallower than many believe. The upcoming Q1 16 earnings season may surprise a few.”

TD Securities (April 25): “Ever since the failed Doha meeting led to an immediate sharp selloff in oil, the commodity quickly found enough buying interest to reverse the selling and subsequently hit new highs for the year last week. The hope for another OPEC/NOPEC meeting in May (extremely unlikely) and the initial production shortfall concerns surrounding the Kuwaiti oil strike (lasted only a few days) helped the move, while specs quietly cut some long positioning. With these large supply side adjustment hopes now on hold once again, expected inventory builds coming in the US again this week, and the FOMC meeting unlikely to accrue any major changes to the narrative, crude oil may finally buck the trend this week and see a decline amidst the weaker fundamentals.”

小摩（Morgan Stanley）還提供了下圖：


從市場來看，大家是猶豫不決，見風使舵那種，《彭博》數天來的報道可見一斑：
2016.04.20Oil Slips From 5-Month High Amid Ample U.S. Supply, OPEC Doubts
圖、視頻
2016.04.21Oil Climbs to Five-Month High as Traders See Market Rebalancing
圖、視頻
2016.04.22Why U.S. Oil Production Is Falling

2016.04.23Oil Falls From Five-Month High Amid Signs of Growing Crude Glut
圖（同上）、視頻
2016.04.26Oil's Recovery Inches Higher as 'Fracklog' Awaits Price Trigger
圖、視頻
2016.04.26Oil's Recovery Inches Higher as 'Fracklog' Awaits Price Trigger
最後的報道是今天的，你要是問油價為啥漲，這是個借口：




不過別忘了讀讀報道內容：“nearing a $45-level IG Ltd. says makes some shale plays profitable. Drilled, uncompleted wells could return 500,000 barrels a day back to the market, according to Richard Westerdale”。

《彭博》上午的報道最逗，原標題叫“Price of WTI Crude Rises Above $45 per Barrel for First Time Since November - Bloomberg”，後來又改成了“Oil Pares Gain After Government Report Shows U.S. Supply Build”，原因是美國能源部剛發的原油儲存報告，說是存量大增：

(能源部報告有別於美國能源署（U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)）。）

這一來油價受衝擊，投機心態彰然：

3分鍾分圖

一個月多前我預測油價不可能上$40，後來在原油封產無望？認輸，不過還是充滿疑團。當時據《路透社》報道，美國頁岩油產家暗示油價上$40即可複產，不過現在的說法是$50：
Oil's Magic Number Becomes $50 a Barrel for Promise of Recovery
“BP Plc, rig-owner Nabors Industries Ltd. and explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co. all said in the past 24 hours that prices above $50 will encourage more drilling or provide the needed boost to cash flow”






【參見】
【1】油價直上$50？
【2】（技術分析）Here's why the oil rally could soon stall

【3】《油價商情oilprice.com》2016.04.20
Has the Oil Price Rally Gone Too Far?
【4】2016.04.22
IEA Warns "Saudis, Russians To Pump As Much Oil As Possible"
【5】《油價商情oilprice.com》2016.04.22
Doha Is A Distant Memory As Oil Rises To Mid $40’s
【6】《油價商情oilprice.com》2016.04.27
Why Saudi Arabia Will Not Win The Oil Price War