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美國二月就業狀況

(2016-03-07 07:30:20) 下一個

大家公認美國經濟是世界上大國裏跟印度是最好的。不過你要是仔細留意美國整體的經濟數據就會覺得很含糊,不見經濟蕭條的影子,但很多方麵遠低於曆史環境下相似的時代,如整體物價和工資就一直讓人失望。

不過美國經濟有一樣是大家毫無異議的:就業。從與股市相關的報道大概可以了解到企業營業額利潤一直馬馬虎虎,但是企業招人的趨向幾年來一直沒變,許多企業找不到人,空位很多。也許盡管大家一直叨叨,盼來盼去的中興也等了一年又一年,還是沒來,骨子裏大家還是覺得前途一片光明,好日子,會來的。

美國二月增加過24萬個職位,很強。

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/NFP%20Feb.jpg

失業率維持在4.9%,危機以來最低的。

 

下麵是華爾街日報德銀的圖(圖片一般都能點擊放大),足以全麵描述了當前的就業狀況(很長,我在最後有些評論,你得有耐心)。

【1】數目

The last few months have been strong for job gains ...

The pace of job creation is slowing down as the economy approaches full employment ...

 

【2】剖析分類

... notably in lower-paying industries.
按收入

... but it's been an unequal recovery across racial lines, and members of Congress have tasked Fed Chair Janet Yellen with responding to this imbalance.

Millennials are crushing it.

 

【3】就業環境日趨緊俏

... as the supply of available workers shrinks.

Turnover at companies is soaring, probably reflecting worker confidence.

【4】廣義失業率也大幅改善

The U-6 unemployment rate — a broader measure that includes workers who are working part-time but want full-time work — is falling ...

Weekly initial jobless claims have run under 300,000 for one year.

People are reentering the labor force ...

... as there's a stampede to come back.

【5】工資、收入

Wage growth has been so-so ...

... but everything small businesses are saying points to higher wages.

 

【注1】小業主反應

美國小業主行會叫NFIB(National Federation of Small Business),對美國就業至關重要,據它們的統計,個小企業工資上漲幅度跟全國平均相仿,也不低,而且壓力大。總的大家對雇傭的計劃還是樂觀。然而,最近的調查(二月的結果)說是總的信心則是馬馬虎虎:

【注2】收入

總的收入不斷提高,但二月幅度令人失望,盡管同比還是漲了,環比卻跌了:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/hourly%20earnings.jpg

即使同比也呈現下跌趨勢:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings.jpg

不過個別經濟學家出來安慰大家,說這是統計誤差所致,因為二月少了一天,下個月會會補會來的。

你要是不信,可以看看下麵的統計:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/weekly%20earnings_1.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/03/03/jobs%20in%20feb.jpg

跟以前一樣,絕大部分的職位都是低收入的,這是美國新經濟的一個無可奈何的現實,難以逃避。

 

 

 

 

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