石油輸出國組織會減產嗎？

剛剛說過“沙特石油戰？”，講的是沙特要降價扼殺美國頁岩油。

石油輸出國組織本周（27日，維也納）馬上就要決定是否減產，扭轉油價失控的狀況。這是高盛給前幾天報道的小結



高盛的預測是微減。

塔斯社報道說科威特的油委（Kuwait's Supreme Petroleum Council）成員Abdul Majid Al-Shatti今天又暗示應當減產，他希望油價會到$80。原來印象是俄國無意減產，不過德國之聲報道說委內瑞拉外長上周訪問俄國，俄國能源部長當時表示俄國會考慮。俄委兩國對原油收入的依賴都極大，委內瑞拉是叫減產叫的最響的。俄國能源部長前天又說【路透社】俄國正在考慮，很為難，還沒有定。美沙兩手壓價打擊俄國這一說法不但在美流行，在俄國更是普遍。這是德國之聲引用的：

Leonid Fedun, co-owner of private Russia-based oil firm Lukoil, cited US President Barack Obama's visit to Riyadh in March.
"Obama travelled to meet the king of Saudi Arabia just after the Crimea events to push him to these actions [to lower the price]," Fedun said last month.
Perhaps the strongest evidence in this direction comes from US foreign minister John Kerry. After a trip to Saudi Arabia in September, Kerry was asked if past discussions with Riyadh had touched on Russia's need for a global oil price above $100 per barrel to balance its budget.
"They (the Saudis) are very, very well aware of their ability to have an impact on global oil prices," Kerry replied.
Saudi Arabia is in the midst of a proxy war against Iran in Syria and Iraq, with each supporting rival militias, divided roughly along the lines of sectarian affiliation - the Saudis in support of Sunni militias, and the Iranians in support of Shiite militias.
But Saudi Oil minister Ali al Naimi denies a geopolitical drive to get oil prices down is what is going on. After many weeks of silence in the face of spreading conspiracy theories, Naimi finally spoke to the issue on November 12.
"Saudi oil policy... has been subject to a great deal of wild and inaccurate conjecture in recent weeks. We do not seek to politicize oil... for us it's a question of supply and demand, it's purely business," he said.

問題是大家一群散沙，利益複雜，很難達成協議。彭博列舉了一些情況，俄國、挪威、墨西哥都不在石油輸出國組織內，要減，得大家一塊兒減，否則無意義。

我覺得大家要麽發表空頭宣言，啥也不做，要麽象征性的表表態，不論怎樣，結果油價還是隻降不升。當然了，俄國就慘了。

市場是怎麽看的呢？

這是西德州中級原油（WTI）期貨價格圖：

今天開始，一開始有一點小衝，但至此時力度不大，幾乎沒長：

15分鍾圖


日圖

似乎$74到底了。

高盛還有些內幕。



一大群人用短期布倫特原油認購期權賭油價反彈。

拭目以待。

【後記】
上麵引的路透社的報道有個更新：
UPDATE 2-Russia sends mixed signals on oil output ahead of OPEC meeting

俄國不是石油輸出國組織成員，不能公開表態，但是放的風聲較含糊：

"We think that our contribution, in principle, is that we are keeping our oil production (flat). We are not increasing."

"Kommersant newspaper said on Monday Russia might suggest cutting its oil production by around 15 million tonnes a year (300,000 barrels per day) from next year and that Moscow expected the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to limit its output by another 70 million tonnes. OPEC meets in Vienna on Nov.27."

"Industry players are sceptical that Russia may do anything significant to shore up prices as it did not contribute even when it promised to cut exports to help OPEC curb an oil price fall in the early 2000s."

2014年11月25日（美國東部時間）11：00
一小時前傳出消息說石油輸出國組織沒達成協議，油價即刻大跌：

5分鍾圖：


日圖：


還沒跌破前幾天的底線，不過危險了。

路透社報道：
Pre-OPEC Saudi, Russia oil meet fails to agree output cut

還在談。