三個月期新元掉期利率 回到正數對購屋者不利

（2011-08-20）

● 《早報》龔慧婷 報道

　　由於新元下跌，三個月期的新元掉期利率(Swap Offer Rate，簡稱SOR)昨天終於回彈到正數的領域。但對房地產買家來說，這可能不是一個好消息。

　　在8月10日，三個月期的SOR史無前例地滑落到負數領域，在星期四(8月11日)更是進一步下跌到負0.699點的曆史低點。過後的七個工作日，三個月期的SOR都在負數領域徘徊。

　　SOR即新元掉期利率，是指以美元為主的借貸率，利用外匯兌換成新元。這就包括銀行的融資成本。

　　因此，資金大量流入，新元又估計兌美元將升值，就促使SOR在上周掉入了曆史新低點。

　　昨天新元兌美元下跌，1美元兌1.212新元，SOR因此也大幅回彈，三個月期的SOR報0.154點，終於回到了正數的領域。

　　對於已申請房貸或打算為房地產再融資的買家，一般都會希望SOR越低越好。

　　本地其中一類浮動利率的房屋貸款配套，就是與SOR掛鉤，即三個月期的SOR加上利差(spread)。

　　例如：澳盛銀行(ANZ)就提供了三個月期的SOR＋0.95%的優惠再融資房貸配套。0.95%就是所謂的銀行利差。

　　由於SOR從8月10日開始，已跌入了負數的領域，澳盛銀行就將SOR定在0.1%的水平，最低貸款額是30萬元。　　

    多數現有的貸款合約上也已列明，一旦出現劇烈波動，導致SOR跌到零以下的水平(出現負數)，銀行就會將SOR定為零或由銀行較早前決定的水平。

SOR越低房貸越少

　　對已簽訂這類浮動利率房屋貸款的私宅買家來說，SOR越低，意味他們需要支付的房貸越少。

　　例如，以澳盛的例子，當SOR掉到零時，房地產買家在那個月份，隻需要支付相等於貸款額0.95%的房貸。盡管如此，不少銀行已紛紛表示，由於SOR的波動大，銀行已停止發放與它掛鉤的新房屋貸款配套。

　　渣打銀行表示,早從2008年開始，就已不再發放與SOR掛鉤的房貸配套。

　　渣打銀行新加坡和東南亞有抵押貸款部門主管李建發指出，據銀行那時觀察，同比之下，新加坡銀行同業拆息率(SIBOR)的波動沒有SOR那麽大，因此，考慮到2008年的市場情況，並希望減少SOR波動對客戶每月貸款的衝擊，渣打銀行不再發放與SOR掛鉤的新房貸。

　　星展銀行表示，SOR配套隻占銀行抵押貸款的很小份額，從2007年開始，這類貸款就與完全透明的指數，例如：SIBOR掛鉤。　　

　　大華銀行表示，從8月1日開始，大華銀行已終止發放與SOR掛鉤的新貸款配套，改而聚焦於波動沒有那麽巨大、與SIBOR掛鉤的配套。

　　SIBOR是銀行同業之間的借貸率。它主要受到美國利率和國內貸款需求的影響。

　　但隨著美國不久前宣布，會在兩年內(至少到2013年年中)，將利率維持不變(在0至0.25厘)的水平。一般相信，隻要美國不調高利率，新加坡的利率也會維持在低水平。　昨天，同樣普遍被使用為房貸浮動利率指標的三個月期SIBOR，報0.346點，維持在星期四的水平。

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What the Negative Swap Rate Means For You

In a surprising development, the Singapore dollar Swap Offer Rate (SOR) turned negative for the first time on August 10th due to inflows into the Singapore dollar. In this article we’ll explore what the SOR is, why it turned negative, and what impact that has on the banks, borrowers and depositors.

What is SOR?

SOR is the effective cost of borrowing SGD synthetically through borrowing USD for 3 months and swapping out the USD in return for SGD for the same maturity. The other commonly used benchmark is SIBOR (Singapore Interbank Offered Rate), which is a daily reference rate based on the interest rates at which banks offer to lend unsecured funds to other banks in the Singapore wholesale money market (or interbank market).

The Association of Banks in Singapore is the fixing authority for both rates. Some of the differences between the two:

1. SIBOR is determined by the demand and supply of funds in the Singapore interbank market, whereas SOR is more influenced by external factors such as USD interest and exchange rates.

2. SOR tends to be more volatile because exchange rates and USD money market rates are more volatile.

Why did it turn negative?

Singapore has been attracting large inflows of  U.S. dollars from investors looking for a refuge from the turmoil in the global markets. It also reflects market expectations of the exchange rate.

In its April statement, the central bank MAS had effectively signaled its intention to allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate against a basket of currencies by re-centering the currency’s band upwards, thus exacerbating inflows from investors looking for a strong currency.

What is the impact for borrowers and depositors?

The negative SOR rate complicates the MAS’ efforts to clamp down on inflation. It may cause the MAS to rethink its policy on allowing the Singapore dollar to appreciate quickly to curb inflation – so far this year it has gained 6.5 percent versus the U.S. dollar. But the expectation of a rapid appreciation will attract even more inflows from investors looking for a safe-haven currency in AAA-rated Singapore.

With exports under pressure, there are also some arguing that the pace of appreciation should be slowed down. For banks, the low interest rates have been hurting them by compressing their already low margins. As SOR has strayed into negative territory while interbank rates have stayed positive, some argue that it has started to lose its usefulness as a benchmark for pricing various loans such as mortgages. Some banks have now started to abandon SOR as a peg and switched to SIBOR or board rates. Some banks have also invoked “market disruption clauses” in their loan agreements to reset or use another benchmark for their loans.