下一個股市崩盤在即嗎？

下一個股市崩盤在即嗎？

 

最近一段時間，美國股市上上下下，像一個難以駕駛的野牛。金融界的專業人士們，則各講各的道，有的認為股值低估，是逢低買入的好時機，有的則持相反的態度，大唱哀歌。下麵附錄裏麵的這篇英文文章有點代表性，我大致“大膽妄為”地評論一下，希望對大家有所啟發。

作者給出了股市將會崩盤的十個理由。

其一，按照市盈率來看，和曆史數據相比，目前的估值太高。現在，按照羅伯特·席勒的計算，標準普500的市盈率大概在20 左右，遠高於16倍的曆史平均水平。這種對16倍曆史“平均”水平的期待，我覺得有點一廂情願：他獲得的那個“平均值”，包含了“很久之前”估值特別低的“特殊時代”。那個容易在股市賺錢的時代，估計是很難再看到了。也正是那個時代的存在，才造就了巴菲特的傳奇。現在的投資環境已經遠沒有那種機會了。

如果具體到個股，倒是有點意思：WMT（$51）的市盈率為12.8，紅利率為2.35%，盈利成長預期為9-10%。可口可樂（KO，$55.7）的市盈率為17.4，低於最近十多年的平均值，紅利率為3.16%，盈利成長預期為9-10%；普潔（PG）的情形類似。科技股方麵，最有代表性的就是微軟和英特爾了。英特爾（INTC，$18.7）的市盈率為11.3，市場預期它在今後幾年的盈利為一直持平。不過，它的現金流不錯，如果它能夠保持盈利能力不下降，也應該是個不錯的“現金牛”。

由此可見，席勒的理由似乎也不是很值得大家重視。再者，這位席勒是很喜歡嚇唬人的囉。

其二，聯儲有點心慌了。一方麵警告經濟有繼續惡化的可能，另一方麵，又在出手防止通貨緊縮的出現。在大量注入流動性的同時，通貨緊縮出現，這對於股市可不是什麽好事情，至少在短期內是這樣。問題是，你的投資是基於短期還是長期。短期的影響到底會有多大？

其三，太多的樂觀主義者。這是一件有意思的事情：聯儲警告經濟走下坡，股市玩家樂觀派站主流。按照彼得·林奇的“雞尾酒理論”，大多數人樂觀的時候，很可能就是股市需要調整的時刻，至少在短期內看是這樣。這倒是有點道理，不過，什麽叫做“短期”？你很在乎嗎？按照市場效率理論，市場再長期一般不會打錯。這次的樂觀，到底意味著什麽呢？

其四，數據表明，經濟似乎已經處於通貨緊縮階段。人們現在在談論，美國經濟會不會步入當年日本的後塵，也來個“十年無所事事”？對比中國的通貨膨脹壓力，美國人需要擔心通貨緊縮嗎？如果美國主要依靠中國生產物資，這種可能性恐怕比較小。至少，我們很多人能夠感覺到，許多食品的價格在最近幾年已經上升了不少。

其五，太多的人依然欠賬太多。和十年前相比，美國人的債務已經翻番了。這倒是一個值得人們認真對待的大問題。按照目前的架勢繼續走下去，美國和中國的“芥子”可能隻好通過武力來解決了。到了那種狀態，戰爭就成為我們擔心的大事，而不是股市。一旦戰爭開打，隻要不是在美國國土，美國人肯定會發財的。中國的強勢，我們這代人估計很難看到。拭目以待吧。

其六，就業市場形勢依然不容樂觀。按照數據是9.7%的失業率，但是，如果算上那些更為嚴重的隱性失業，失業率估計可能就是20%好幾了。目前，20歲以上的人口，隻有61%的人有工作，而且，很多人還隻是擁有臨時工。這些臨時工們所掙的錢，是遠不夠養家糊口的，他們最多也隻能夠滿足於最基本的消費。想工作又尋找無門，很有點中國大學畢業生的味道。不過，股市和就業市場之間有一個時差：股市總是前瞻性比較強，等到就業市場已經明顯轉好時，股市早已經調整到位了。就業市場給你的是“感性”的認識，股市需要通過基於理性的認識來付諸行動。

其七，住房市場依然不景氣。在通貨緊縮的年代，債務數量不變，而購買力和賺錢能力卻在變小，相當於是無形中加重的債務負擔。再者，地產是美國人最大的資產之一，在主要資產繼續貶值的情況下，人們消費的欲望也會受到影響。地產市場一方麵受到就業市場的影響，同時，銀行捂住口袋不貸款，抑製了需求，也是一個問題。大量注入的流動性，在美國並沒有變成真正的購買力。這和中國的國情還很不同。在需要資金流動的時候，大家因為保守和小心“不流動”，在大家都樂觀的時候，很可能就是洪水泛濫了。

其八，九、十月是美國股市多災多難的多發季節。很多人由於曆史的經驗，對於這個季節有著恐懼心理。今年會不會繼續“犯病”，也是人們擔心的。恐慌是市場動蕩的根源。

其九，十一月份又是一個選舉季節，很多人估計，這一次，民主黨會失掉很多地盤。共和黨的“回鄉團”一來，對於富人的照顧和對於窮人的“理性”，會不會造成“雪上加霜”的效果？也是人們擔心的問題。不過，一般來說，共和黨看著效率，長期看也不是壞事。民主黨喜歡“樂善好施”，短期效果可能好一點，長期而言，或許隻會弊大於利。

其十，其它數據表明，經濟形勢不是很理想。特別是，中國的宏觀調控，讓世界人民的希望暫時落了空。但是，這或許也是一件好事。蒸蒸日上的中國經濟，對於世界經濟的繁榮還是很重要的。至少在現在，人們不得不正視這一現實。

作為晴雨表的CSCO，最近給出了比較悲觀一點的為了盈利預期。21.88美元的股價，16.74的市盈率，外加兩位數的預期盈利成長，沒有紅利，就是CSCO當前的現狀。但是，保守的Csco，它的悲觀，到底能夠說明多少問題？更有趣的是蘋果公司，大量的現金，都很保守地放在美國的國庫券上了。美國大量的公司手裏有著大量的現金。美國的民眾“貧窮”，但是，美國的公司依然富有。這隻後備軍最後總會殺出來，拯救美國的。是不是？

附錄：Is another market crash coming?

 

From jobs to housing to the "September effect," several economic and market indicators are warning investors to be cautious.

By Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. But way too many people are way too complacent this summer.

Here are 10 reasons to watch out:

1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?

2. The Fed is getting nervous. The central bank recently warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. The move should drive down long-term interest rates. That's great news for mortgage borrowers, but it's hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is already north of 10,000.

3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.

4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, the drop is affecting wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour last quarter than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if your among the people who owe way too much money.

5. Many people still owe way too much money. And not just households -- corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam owe, too. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt -- even excluding the financial sector -- is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared with $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it has fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it at twice the level of a decade ago.

6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the population age 20 or over has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s, when more women stayed at home by choice. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, although allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working can find only part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?

7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took an additional 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effect hurts all those homeowners not in foreclosure by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above.

8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell.

9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, recently was giving the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff recently pointed out, gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing." Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen.

10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs) has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above.