蘋果六百大關之後是什麽

蘋果六百大關之後是什麽

 

在喬布斯去世，大家熱捧喬布斯傳記，很多人擔心後喬布斯時代蘋果股票走向，很多人因為害怕而拋棄蘋果股票的時候，我花了無數的日日夜夜研讀蘋果的故事，特別是蘋果的商戰故事。最後，我得到的直覺是：蘋果故事不會因為喬布斯的去世而停止。至少在短期而言，在未來的兩三年之內，蘋果依然有不可戰勝的競爭力。

那時候，蘋果的股價在370美元，像個幽靈，對於很多膽小的投資者，就相當於是，一個想愛又害怕的求愛者，麵對漂亮的年輕女郎，隻有在牆角落偷偷的看看的膽量。

很可惜，這個時代依然是“撐死膽大的餓死膽小的”的年代，如果你沒有一點敢於“冒險”的精神和膽量，隻是靠你每天給人打工而求得過個安穩的日子，最終，你過的日子很可能是非常的不安穩。

風險是必須麵對的，不管你喜歡還是不喜歡，也不管你是願意還是不願意。不同的隻是，智者直接麵對，弱者選擇逃避而最終被動接受，並且稱之為不得不接受的命運。

短短幾個月下來，蘋果就靠近600美元大關了，而且還在今天試了一次600這個有著魔力的數字，雖然是不是能夠做到闖關成功，那還得看很多公司內外的因素共同作用的結果會是什麽樣的。

如果隻是從公司的競爭力、盈利成長速度、壟斷水平、賬戶上的現金儲備，和對應的市盈率來看的話，蘋果的股價還是不算被高估，即使是在年初到現在已經上升了50%左右之後！雖然公司的市值已經高高在上，高的“驚人”，但是，它的市盈率還不是很高，盈利成長也還是非常快。

問題是，蘋果的市值確實是太高了——與市場上的玩家相比，與曆史上的數據相比。這，在短期內肯定會成為一個讓投資者擔心的問題。但是，長期而言，公司市值衝破新的高度，將是曆史的必然。不同的，隻是誰來成為這個曆史的記錄書寫者罷了。

蘋果做的是實實在在的生意，賺的是實實在在的大錢。

相比蘋果，倒是那些暫時牛氣熏天的“泡泡”公司，隻有故事，沒有太好的真實盈利事實，這樣的公司，對於很多理性的投資者，還是應該規避為好。就像下麵列出的幾家在今天倒是還大名鼎鼎的公司。

對於Groupon公司，我倒是領教了好幾回。我從從事實業的角度感覺，可以告訴你，我不喜歡這家公司做廣告的模式。我估計，類似於我這樣的企業，很多最終會離它越來越遠。那麽，這樣的結果就是，它的顧客會越來越少。那些試了一次的公司，最終選擇不再回頭。一家很難保住顧客的公司，其長期成長在哪裏？我是讀不懂的。

有一點我覺得值得讓我欽佩：當年和今天，依然有很多公司，靠著非常沒有譜的經營理念，居然還能搞到巨大的資金來嚐試自己的想法，倒是給我提了一個很大的醒：相比這些人，我們還是太狗熊！很多巨大的機會，我們還是沒有放開手腳去認真地試一試。那麽，下一步，我們是不是到了該改變一下自己的生活模式的時候了呢？

 

 

TECH VIEW: The Tech World - Then And Now

3/15/12 | Dow Jones， By Therese Poletti 

Just two weeks after the Nasdaq closed above 3000 for the first time in November 1999, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates gave a keynote address at the Comdex trade show. 

Remember that? For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, Comdex used to be the tech industry's big show. But even back then, the sprawling show was starting to feel behind the times in the midst of the roaring dot-com boom that was sweeping the nation. 

Fast forward to 2012: the Consumer Electronics Show has usurped Comdex as tech's annual gathering, but Microsoft will no longer participate. Giant industry trade shows are becoming increasingly irrelevant, expensive and inefficient in the world of social media, where many just watched CES press conferences webcast on Facebook. 

As the Nasdaq bounces around 3000 again, it might be useful to walk down memory lane and look at the tech world over a decade ago, to see what has changed and what--if anything--we learned. 

In 1999, there was no such thing as Facebook, Twitter or smartphones. The Palm Pilot was the tool for the cool young Gen-X hipsters and the gadget freaks, many of whom were plotting strategies to flip their Internet startups and cash out as millionaires in one of the many fly-by-night dot-coms. There were approximately 289 Internet-related IPOs in 1999, raising a staggering $24.66 billion. The Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) neon sign flickered over San Francisco's on-ramp to the Bay Bridge. 

One of the most memorable of those now-defunct dot-coms is Pets.com, perhaps more so for its iconic sock puppet used in its vast advertising campaign. On Nov. 4, 1999, just one day after the Nasdaq closed at 3028.51, Webvan went public. Two years later, the online grocery company, which spent millions setting up a nationwide distribution system, went bust. Now Safeway.com sells groceries over the web. 

Today, the vestiges of Palm Inc., purchased by Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) in 2010, are pretty much gone. Many of those dot-commers are now in their 40s and some call themselves serial entrepreneurs, with a slew of successes and failures under their belts. 

Carly Fiorina was then chief executive of H-P, Steve Jobs was orchestrating Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) turnaround with the popular fruit-colored iMacs, and the company had yet to introduce the iPod and iTunes, which would forever change the music industry. The Twin Towers stood tall at the foot of Manhattan, and the city was promoted by some as "Silicon Alley" for its growing number of multimedia and Internet advertising startups. 

Google Inc. (GOOG) was still private, but the young company had just hired its first chef, Charlie Ayers. Ayers won the job in a cook-off judged by the company's 40 employees. He previously had catered for the Grateful Dead. 

Microsoft and Intel Corp. (INTC) dominated the PC industry, Microsoft was battling antitrust allegations, and a year later, at the 2000 Comdex, Gates would demonstrate a tablet that used electronic ink, one that never saw the light of day. 

Today, both giants are playing catch up in the mobile arena, Apple has upended even more industries, including mobile phones, and it shook up the PC industry with the first successful tablet, the iPad. Its legendary co-founder Jobs passed away last year, and about-to-go public Facebook Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is the latest idol of tech CEOs. 

Many things have changed dramatically in tech in the last 12 years. But Internet IPOs, after a long drought, have made a comeback, and venture capitalists are still investing in copycat, me-too startups. The dot-coms of 1999 have become the social media darlings of 2011 and 2012. And a lot of companies are still trying to figure out the best way to monetize "eyeballs." 

The valuations of money-losing companies such as Groupon Inc. (GRPN), with a market cap of nearly $9 billion, are troubling to some. Zynga Inc. (ZNGA), a social game company that makes money selling virtually nothing, also has a market cap just above $9 billion. According to Renaissance Capital, in 2011, four of the five largest U.S. Internet IPOs ever--Bankrate Inc. (RATE), Groupon, LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) and Zynga--raised $2.4 billion. 

And the Yahoo sign no longer glows over San Francisco.