DN, this is more for the sake of argument and debate, I want to discuss/debate a little bit the other side of the coin. :)
It seems to me your thesis is that Chinese is going to stay the current course. I actually could use or change your argument to support the opposite.
Note: Points 1,3 and 5 below are direct quote from you. 2 and 4 are what I want to change to support the opposite.
1. To outsiders, the party officials appear to be so far behind in the advancement of human civilization that it’s perplexing that they still have enormous support.
2. Currently there are many unhappy people, but as long as they are sufficiently fed, they will not rebel.
--> Currently people are mostly sufficiently fed, but as long as there are many unhappy people, there will be discontent and rebellions.
3. persistent problems, if not fixed, could accumulate and accelerate the demise of an empire with some catalysts.
4. we can fairly be certain that the new Chinese leader will mostly continue his predecessors’ policies.
-->With globalization and the popularization of social media, there is more transparency in terms of how much Chinese people know about what's happening outside and what the Chinese government has been censoring. The new Chinese leader needs to take some corresponding innovative policies in order to keep China at bay. If he continues his predecessor's policies, he will be in big trouble.
5.But this is a dangerous game to play, not only at the risk of an accident that could spark a fight, but also any perceived weakness by the public may adversely impact the image of the government.
From the above,i.e.: China is far behind in human civilization advancement, unhappy people abound, problems persist, changes are happening on the global scale and Chinese people are voicing their opinions, the current government is playing a dangerous diplomatic game, could I conclude the opposite: with the new leader in power, China is facing a tumultous decade ahead?
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