剛發現，想用的可以用這個referral，我也能弄點credit。https://mulerun.com/invitation/CRSCH3XJHYSL
附上CRCL的分析。
7. Positioning & Strategy
• Core long can be accumulated $110–$120 with $100 technical stop (June IPO price).
• For rate hedge, pair long CRCL with short 2-year SOFR futures.
• Options: Jan-26 $150 calls (~$18) funded by selling Jan-26 $80 puts (~$11) for low-cost convexity; respect liquidity.
1. Bottom-Line View
Despite a violent post-IPO draw-down (-38 % from the first-day close and ?62 % vs. June high), the core fundamentals of Circle remain intact. USDC circulation continues to re-accelerate, reserve-income is still compounding >40 % YoY, liquidity is abundant and regulatory risk has fallen, not risen, with July’s GENIUS Act. At ~8.8× FY-25E RLDC and <15× FY-26E free-cash-flow the stock already discounts a hard-landing in rates and near-term dilution. For long-duration investors the risk-reward (12-18 m) skews favorably so long as:
- USDC keeps growing faster than the stable-coin market (Circle share now 28 %, +600 bps YoY) .
- The Fed cuts no faster than 100 bp through 2026 (every 100 bp = ~11 % swing in reserve income) .
- New equity issuance stays inside the $1 bn ATM envelope management signaled on 21-Aug .
Near term the shares may remain headline-driven and technically weak (short-gamma flows below $120 can pull toward $100) . But from an operating and regulatory standpoint nothing material has deteriorated since the IPO; several things have improved.
