耶魯教授R。SHILLER談房價，他曾成功預測了最近的股市房市泡沫 (the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the late 2000s.
他認為,按房價與收入比，和房價與房租比，房價已趨合理，但房市經曆了大泡沫破裂後，房價或會繼續跌到合理價位以下，（over-shooting).
我覺得，其實房價有沒觸底，對許多以現金流為主的投資者並不重要。房價的漲跌對已擁有的投資房的現金流無影響。想要買房的，當然希望房價再降。但想在最低點進場也是不明智的。誰能真正預測最底點？總之，現在仍是買房的好時機。
http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-housing-2012-1
BLODGET: And where are house prices relative to long-term historical trends? I've tracked at a lot of measures and it looks to me like we're finally starting to close in on fair value. But it's not as though we've crashed way below fair value.
SHILLER: It depends what you mean by fair value. If you take account of the very low interest rates, you might think that housing prices should be higher than historically. But then on the other hand, that model hasn't worked very well historically. That would be like the Fed model applied to housing. But it doesn't seem to fit. But I think the construction costs model says that housing should track the costs of construction. It doesn't depend on interest rates, doesn't depend on the economy. That's a model, I'm not saying it's the only model.
BLODGET: And what about price-to-income and price-to-rent?
SHILLER: Those things have come down a lot. I don't know exactly where the middle is but it's not like we're overpriced anymore. Now the question is whether we'll overshoot, which is a common thing that happens after bubble burst.
BLODGET: And you're an expert in bubbles and I've looked at some on your work going back several hundreds of years on housing. Have you ever seen a bubble where there wasn't a major overshoot?
SHILLER: Well, the problem is we've never had, in the United States, a bubble like this, of this magnitude before. That's the problem. That's the fundamental problem of economics. We'd like to be statisticians but in fact the world is always changing on us. So we end up having to use judgment. We're not very good at that.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-housing-2012-1#ixzz1nSRbC9vR
