經濟學大師Bob Shiller直言今後的房市股市經濟.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-03-03/robert-shiller-economy-stocks-housing/53338010/1

Q: A lot of housing market experts think home prices have bottomed. You've been more bearish.
A. It's not so much that I'm forecasting falling home prices as that I question whether anyone is able to forecast them right now. They won't fall forever, but they can fall for a long time. I don't know where home prices will be in 10 or 20 years.
解答：大師對房子近期反彈明顯沒有信心。

Q: If prices do fall further, does it follow that many homeowners will feel less wealthy, and they'll reduce spending and that will slow the economy?
A. Yes, we find that the "wealth effect" is stronger for housing than it is for the stock market. Many stocks are held in retirement portfolios, so people are not as likely to respond to a decline in value there as they would if it were something more immediate. In recent years, the home-equity loan has become very important as a way of sustaining consumption. Now that home prices have fallen, those loans are not so available. It seems pretty obvious that it's going to affect consumption.
解答：大師對靠home equity促生的經濟增長深表懷疑。

Q: What trends would you need to see for a strengthening of prices and then a sustained rise in home prices?
A: One thing that has been encouraging: The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index has been shooting up. Builders are seeing signs of increasing demand. But it remains at a low level. So it's ambiguous evidence. But that might be taken as a sign that the market is improving.
解答：大師對這新房開工數據表示樂觀（可是呢下文中提到這主要是因公寓建造增加造成的）。

Q: If you were a national housing czar with unilateral authority to do whatever you deemed necessary to help the markets and restore faith, what steps would you take?
A: This crisis was caused substantially by a failure to manage real estate risk properly. And so we should be thinking like financiers about that risk, and how it should be managed. The mortgage institution we have is traditional. There's no reason why we shouldn't rethink it completely. The Dodd-Frank Act called for a study of shared appreciation mortgages. Those are mortgages where the risk of loss and gain on the house is shared with the lender. So if home prices go down, it's not all on the shoulders of the homeowners.
解答：大師說這房事大崩潰是萬惡的資本主義放貸造成的。 唯一的解決方法是shared appreciation mortgages. 這是說賺錢是大家的虧錢也是大家的。 看來大師認為隻有社會主義的放貸才會解救米國房事。

Q: Do you see more rentals and apartments over the next decade? Do you think single-family homeownership will continue on maybe a slow, but steady decline?
A: After the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929, people soured on stocks as investments. And I could see that happening with housing. The assumptions people have been making that buying a house is the American dream and that that's what you have to do — that kind of assumption is not ringing so true anymore.
解答：大師非常殘酷而又正式地給美國夢就是買房子的說法撒了一泡尿。大師直言住公寓也是可以的。

Q: Will the foreclosure settlement for about $25 billion between states and the five biggest mortgage lenders strengthen the housing market?
A: The problem is that the decline in the housing market dwarfs this agreement. The total decline of the housing market has been in the trillions, and negative equity in housing, by one estimate, was about $700 billion. So this is too small to be very effective. It all helps, I suppose, but it's not big.
解答：大師直言最近的$25 billion 救市是杯水車薪。房主們的房貸比房價要多七千億的爛帳。

Q: Do you think there's a bubble forming in the U.S. stock market or in any other asset?
A: It doesn't seem to me that we're in a bubble situation as we were, say, in the 1990s. In the 1990s, there was just a general mood that we're entering a new millennium, with Internet technology and advanced technology and America soaring. It was a bubble all over the world, really. I don't know that we're in that state of confidence now.
解答：大師直言股市沒有泡沫。 這就是說股市還有潛力。

Q: Do you think any asset bubbles are forming in China?
A: China had what looks like a bubble, but the government has taken steps against it. This is another reason not to expect bubbles so much. The stock market bubble of the 1990s and the housing bubble of the 2000s were still at a time when central bankers and government authorities believed much more in free-market efficiency than they do now. The authorities are now thinking that it's their responsibility to choke off bubbles.
解答：大師直言一黨掌權可以有效地預防泡沫。這就是中國的獨特的社會主義優越性了。

Q: If you had to put all your money for the next decade in either stocks or super-safe, inflation-protected securities from the U.S. Treasury (TIPS), what would you do?
A: Stocks. They're highly priced, and they're risky, but they've had a good historic record. And last time I looked, inflation index bonds have a negative real yield.
解答：大師直言現在就是應該買股票。

Q: Is there any recent good book on consumer psychology or a non-econ subject that you've read?
A: Well, I like Danny Kahneman's new book, Thinking, Fast and Slow. This reflects a psychological literature that the human mind is designed to build memories around narratives, especially human interest stories. Our mind stores memories as sequences of events with an ending. The story of the Great Depression is a story that's in our memories. Another story is the patriotic one of the greatness of our country that may resonate more at some times than at others. And when it does resonate, it encourages people to be spending and investing in an optimistic way.
解答：大師不悲觀。

所有跟帖： 

• good article -meowi- ♀ (0 bytes) () 03/03/2012 postreply 22:17:27

• 謝。 -halfdummy- ♂ (0 bytes) () 03/04/2012 postreply 07:20:49

• 一黨掌權可以有效地預防泡沫。--大師知道中國的通脹是多麽的嚴重嗎？ -johndoe23- ♂ (15 bytes) () 03/04/2012 postreply 14:20:05