八國組織峰會同意到2050年CO2排放減少到1990年的50%,小布什也無奈了一把。油價現在居高不下，看來一半會兒下不去了。天氣忽冷忽熱讓人懷疑地球是不是出了問題。南極附近的一個巨大冰山裂開。顯然，這些關係到能源環境你和我的事情都是聯係在一起的。
很多人都在說能源短缺。其實能源並不短缺。當然油價上漲有供求的因素。油越來越少，價格自然上升。石油照現在的速度開采不到 100 年就采光了，悲觀的說法是 50 年。不過油價貴一點，多數人都可以承受，不致於引起恐慌。英國的油價現在大概是 $5.6 每加侖，是美國的近兩倍，什麽事也沒有。油價在美國還可以上升而且大眾可以繼續承受得了。中國的油價和人的收入相比比美國的還要高，人們照樣開車過日子。
油價貴不隻是由於石油的短缺引起的。去年 11 月美國選舉日的前夕，油價突然下降。選舉一過，油價又升上去了，顯然是有人操縱。 EXXONMOBIL 前老板 Lee Raymond 退休的 package 有天價的 $400 million 。石油界其他大大小小的老板，無數的普通雇員和投資者都從大眾身上撈了不少。
石油早晚是要用完的，單從能源的角度來說，常規的能源裏，除了石油還有煤。煤的儲量巨大。現在探明的煤的儲量可以供人類用額外的兩三百年。
不用煤的原因之一是煤象石油一樣，產生二氧化碳，而二氧化碳是溫室氣體的主要成分。其次，燒煤的汙染要比油嚴重得多。一個MIT的教授和額說：雖然我們觀察到溫度上升，但是還屬於正常波動範圍之內，溫室效應現在還沒有科學的定論。世界各國努力減少實際上是防患於未然，因為如果哪一天真的確信了，補救都來不及了。
不用石油不用煤，其他的選擇包括太陽能，水能，風能，核能，潮汐能，生物能等等。除了核能，其他的能量都直接或者間接來自太陽。水利發電好，但是會引起其他問題比如安全和生態。太陽能的潛力巨大，現在已經很實用了，隻不過價格還是比石油高，用於家庭的話設備複雜。風能也在實用階段，看看加州的風車就知道了。核能發電潛力其實很大，法國有 70% 左右的電力來自核能。 John McCain 正在競選共和黨總統的提名，他的主張也是核能。核能的問題是萬一的泄露和由此引起的公眾的偏見，所以現在在美國還是一個很小的比例。79年美國三裏島核電站和87年前蘇聯切爾諾貝利核電站的事故至今讓人心有餘悸。
中國需要什麽樣的技術呢？未來30年主要靠煤，更遠的將來說不準，但是隻要緊跟世界，不會存在 100 年後子孫們隻有靠走路生存的問題。先進的能源技術肯定會擴散的。如果先進的國家不幫助我們使用新能源，我們可以燒煤，反正溫室氣體會飄到別處的。不過這麽說不是說我們不負責任，隻是說不必恐慌。照現在中國的發展速度，幾十年後別的國家哭著喊著找中國要技術也有可能。 胡總在G8峰會上和有錢的大佬們討價還價，說中國是發展中國家應該區別對待。胡總顯然明白如果中國釋放的CO2太多，肯定對自己和全球都不好。但是如果現在就許諾要和他們做同樣讓步，那我們就要吃虧，因為別人已經發達了而我們還在趕路。有個顧大家還是顧小家的問題。總之,我們不必擔心地球因為我們變的太熱，我們也不要不好意思討價還價，這隻是個策略。
能源問題的解決離不開人們的努力。能源工業可以看成三塊：能源的獲得，管理和使用。能源的獲得包括石油和煤炭的開采，太陽能的開發等。俺一個朋友在石油公司，天天琢磨怎麽往地下灌水，好把石油擠上來。這個灌水比俺的灌水有價值，當然他也賺了你我的錢，我灌水誰的錢都沒賺，淨幫人掙錢了，嗬嗬。
能源的利用包括提高設備的效率，比如提高汽車的 gas mileage, 降低空調的用電量，采用綠色建築，加強保溫，用 LCD 顯示器，屏幕自動關閉等。夏天把空調設定提高一度，可以節約至少 7% 的電。所以節約能源人人有責。能源的管理過去被人忽視，其實很有利可圖。有些電廠經營不善，效率很低，經常燒很多煤或者石油可是發不出多少電，關鍵時候出問題。如果 2003 年 8 月在紐約經曆大停電，沒法坐地鐵，在大街上走痛苦不說，對病床上的病人來說簡直就是災難。現在很多金融機構，包括銀行和 private equity, 把電廠買下來，整頓電廠的運行，效率提高了再轉手賣出去，金融機構賺了錢，對公眾也有好處。能源管理是將來最有利可圖的領域之一。
俺的工作跟這些多多少少都有點關係。來說點最近的吧。最近有個零售連鎖店讓我們幫助他們考慮怎麽改進商店的能源利用和消耗。一幫人就坐在那裏brainstorm 出主意，想了半天，找出了 10 多個方案，最後選了幾個寫了個報告給他們。還有幾個方案，嫌他們給的錢不夠多，沒有給他們，給網親們報告一下哈。（這是我們工作最好玩的部分之一）
第一個，是你到了商店裏，會看到有個小孩子玩的地方，比如爬梯什麽的。旁邊最 popular 的是一個大籠子，裏麵小孩在跑，跑的時候小孩的運動就帶動電機發了電。這個裝置還解決小孩子在商店裏跟你要這要那的問題，讓你自由自在地 shopping。為了鼓勵小孩多發電，我們在籠子外麵安了個表，指示發了多少電。旁邊還設置了一個小籠子，裏麵有老鼠在跑。我們給這個大籠子起了個名字叫做 “ 和 MICKEY 賽跑 ” 。估計小孩們跑得滿頭大汗。這個主意哄了孩子，發了電，讓你省心，瞧，一舉三得。
第二個方案是針對燈光的。商店的照明占總用電的近一半，所以有很大節約的餘地。根據人對光線的適應性，我們準備在商店門口接上一段長長的通道，入口附近通道兩邊的窗戶比較大，之後慢慢變小。這樣人剛進去覺得光線還可以，當走到商店裏的時候，燈光已經比較弱了可是你並沒有覺得太暗。有的商店很黑，或許會接半個mile的通道，到了商店裏那燈光和點蠟燭差不多了，我們覺得這樣特別吸引年輕男女顧客。
第三個方案裏，我們準備在售貨員的收銀機上按一個搖輪，這樣收銀機就不用從別處要電了，將來售貨員一邊搖著發電一邊給你收錢 。我們建議商店將來錄取售貨員的時候要進行體力測試，搖不到 8 個小時的不要。很多美國大胖子奔走相告，覺得這個商店既掙錢還是一個Fitness Center， 打破了頭往裏擠。看吧，很可能以後隻收碩士以上學曆的。
還有很多，先不說了吧。以後哪天看到這些玩意兒的時候，別忘了有額的功勞就行了。。。
------------Topics on Energy --------
In the recent G8 summit, the attending countries agreed to reduce the CO2 emission to 50% of 1990 level at 2050, which made Bush unhappy. The high oil price will probably stay there for a while. The sudden changes of weather makes people wonder whether the earth has some problem. The great iceberg near the South Pole has a terrifying crack. Obviously, these energy and environmental things are related.
Many people mentioned energy shortage. Actually energy is not in shortage. Of course oil price has a supply demand factor. The oil will be depleted by no more than 100 years, or 50 years with a more pessimistic estimate. However, most people can tolerate a little high oil price without panic. The British oil price is about $6/gallon and people take for granted. US probably has more room for appreciation. In China, the oil price is much more expensive compared to their income but people just drive.
High oil price is not only because of limited supply. Last year before Nov election, oil price drops suddenly, and then increased after the election. Lee Raymond, the former ExxonMobil CEO got a stunning $400 million retirement package. Other big and small bosses, even the ordinary employees and investors in the oil industry all got some from our pocket.
Oil will be depleted sooner or later. Conventional energy has coal besides oil. There is plenty of coal in the world, enough for another couple of hundred years at least.
We try to limit the use of coal because coal also produces CO2, the major part of greenhouse gases. Also, coal is a much dirtier fuel. An MIT professor says that, although we saw global temperature increases, it is still in the normal range. There is no absolute scientific conclusion confirming global warming. The effort today is more of a preventive than a solution, cos if it is correct, it is going to be too late to have a remedy.
The alternative energies includes solar, hydro, wind, nuclear, ocean wave and biomass etc. Except nuclear, all other sources are from solar. Hydro is good, but may lead to security or eco problems. Direct solar has great potential and already used widely, only that the price is still high. Wind is also OK if you have seen the big wind mills in California. Nuclear is actually a good source. France has more than 70% of power from nuclear. John McCain also favors nuclear. The biggest problem is that, if the nuclear leak happens, with a tiny probability, people will be scared. Commonly cited counter examples include 3-mile Island station and Chebenyl in former Soviet Union. Such a bias limits its use in the conservative US.
The solution for energy problem will not be available without people's effort. Energy can be put into 3 sections: energy acquisition, energy management and energy use. The acquisition including oil and coal drilling, solar collection etc. One of my friends is in a big oil company. His job is to send water to the ground and pus the oil up. This watering is more valuable than my watering on the web. Of course, he earned my money.
The energy use measures include increasing the equipment efficiency, such as the car gas mileage, AC power consumption, green building, better insulation, using LCD monitors vs. CRT, automatic shutoff. Increasing the thermoset by 1 degree can save 7% of electricity. So you and I all have a role here. Energy management used to be ignored, which is a misconception. Some power plants are not running well, wasting a lot of fossil fuels without producing much power, and may even have reliability issues. If you experienced the 2003 NYC black out, you would know the pain of walking miles on the street. By the way, that is called disaster for hospital patients. Now many financial firms such as banks or private equities buy the power plants, make them more efficient and sell them when profitable. The financial firms make money and the public benefits from that as well. So energy management is a lucrative area now and in the future.
My work is more or less related to this. Let me say some recent work. A retail chain store asked us to help them on energy utilization and consumption. So we sat there for brainstorming. After many hours, we got more than 10 ideas. We selected a few for them. There are a few others we did not release, because we feel they may not like to pay. Let me report to my web friends here. (Well, brainstorming is the more enjoyable part of our work).
The first idea is such that when you enter the store, you will see a play ground with climbing things. But the most popular one is a big cage with a lot of kids in it. When they run, the cage rotates and produces power. This cage can let you shopping freely and saves their bugging. To encourage more power generation, we put a meter outside showing the power produced. We will put another smaller cage nearby. The big cage will bear a name called: Run with Mickey Mouse. We feel that the kids will be sweating happily. See, this idea takes care of your children, save your time and money, and produces power. A stone kills three birds.
The second idea is about lighting. The lighting in a store usually consumes about half of the overall electricity, so there is large room for saving. BY taking advantage of people's adaptability to light, we suggest a long corridor in front of the entrance. The window size decreases when you enter the corridor. So when people get in, it is pretty bright. But when you reach the store, the lighting becomes very weak without being noticed. SOme stores may be too greedy. They put a half mile corridor. Finally when people reached the store, the lighting is like a candal. However, we feel this is especially attractive to young and romantic customers.
The last idea: we will install a wheel on the checkout desk, so the desk does not need external power. You would imagine that the cashier will roll while taking your payment. We would suggest the store to have a durability test at hiring. Only people who can roll 8 hours can be hired. You may say many big guys, or gilrs, spread the good news to each other. They feel this store is both a place for making money and a fitness center. It is so competitive that only people with Master's degree are likely to be admitted.
Well, dude, I don't want to disclose too much, since you are not paying me. Just remember if you see those things one day, there was my contribution as well. :-)
前一陣子在一個關於煤化工的學術演講會上聽到一個人這麽說：其實地球原本氣溫就比較高，實在明末清初那時候開始便冷了，從圖表來看，現在地球溫暖化隻是在回歸原來。
這樣說來，地球溫暖化，CO2排量等等問題或許不過是個陰謀？
剛好看到這個話題，隨便說說。
很有創意的。。。 忽悠。
最好滴辦法涅，就是讓飛飛拚 命 地 飛上飛下,飛東飛西,飛南飛北,飛裡飛外,飛出飛進...... ，那樣會產生無窮滴能量地 ~~~
最好滴辦法涅，就是讓紅卡到處亂跑，那樣會產生無窮滴能量哈~~~
第二個方案是年 齡 歧 視 -
第三個方案是身 材 歧 視
嘻 嘻
額 幫 你 想 一 個 方案﹗ 咋 樣 阿 ﹖