空手一方客
收獲了一種恬靜的生活, 像一條波瀾不驚的小河, 流過春夏 流過秋冬
這次大選，保守黨的文宣最多也最濫。最著名的就是“小特魯多還沒有準備好”，正好也是最鱉腳的，隻有不動腦子的“信”。因為誰都知道，哈珀上台前幹過什麽，在行政力上比小特魯多可以說更嫩。如今，保守黨民意較低，與其文宣的反麵效果有很大的關係。
這次大選，加西有12位華裔參選。我認為，可以當選2到5人。當然，有能力的不一定就能當選，主要看所在區的對手實力。我欣賞的有：溫哥華東區的自由黨黃國治，但可能NDP關慧貞當選； 溫哥華KINGSWAY區的自由黨寇鴻九，他對財務稅收的理解，是華人裏頂級的，但對手老外也很強；Richmond東區的保守黨趙錦榮，他對時事政策的掌控最到位；還有Pitt Meadows選區的綠黨譚百昭。當然，反倒可能當選的華裔會是Wei Young， 關慧貞，黃陳小平，等。
從曆史上看，自由黨的經濟人才是最多的，經濟政策也比較活絡，執政期間的經濟一般表現都不錯。保守黨跟美國的屁股太近，會讓加國失去很多可發展的機會。這次若哈珀上台的話，當個少數政府最好，否則他會步入莫若尼的大赤字時代。小特魯特上台的話，也就是個少數政府。他們在競選中的說詞、承諾，聽一半就行了。不要被他們承諾迷糊，也不要被他們對手的攻擊所嚇倒。
至於大麻問題，一般人把“歸管”當成“合法化”理解。現在大麻交易地下非常猖獗，沒有監管。而你“歸管”的話，就涉及到“哪部分合法”的問題，是個兩難的問題。誰涉及，誰就說不清，就會被對手妖化。那就隻能放著不管，讓它繼續地下猖獗。這是個“悖論”式的問題。我們華人不該淺顯理解。
其他問題，也就不多談了。宣傳貼很多，看法很表麵。記住，去投票最重要，表達你的意思就是投出那一票。
附錄----------下麵是篇很不錯的文字，原文照搬。
加拿大統計局有過去90多年的就業數據，哈珀排倒數第二
"Stephen Harper has had the worst growth rate of any prime minister since R.B. Bennett in the depths of the Great Depression and the worst record on job creation of any prime minister since World War II," — Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, almost every day since the campaign started.
"Stephen Harper has the worst job creation record since the Second World War and the worst economic growth record since The Great Depression." — NDP leader Tom Mulcair, almost every day since the campaign started.
Poor R.B. Bennett. He grew up impoverished, became a self-made millionaire through a successful law practice and rose through the political ranks to become Canada's 15th prime minister in October 1931, less than a year into the Great Depression. And now he is a punchline in political stump speeches.
Canada's labour force shrank in each of the first three years of Bennett's mandate, as did the overall economy.
The recovery in 1934 and 1935 meant there were slightly more jobs in the country when Bennett left compared to what he inherited, though GDP was still below 1930 levels.
The spin
The NDP and Liberals say Canada's 22nd prime minister, Stephen Harper, has the worst jobs and economic growth record of any of his predecessors since the days of Bennett.
What's more, while this election was billed as one about the economy, and while the Conservatives have been eager to talk about their record, they have more recently spent a lot of time stoking a debate around refugees, citizenship, niqabs, and "barbaric cultural practices."
And that is no coincidence, charge his rivals.
- Canada Votes: More election coverage
- Vote Compass: Find out where the parties stand on the issues
Harper "has the worst record on jobs creation since World War II," Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said on Thursday. "He knows how to distract with fear and division, and that is something, quite frankly, that Canadians across the country are quite tired of."
For his part, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair accuses the Conservatives of using "weapons of mass deception" to avoid talking about the economy.
The counter-spin
Conservative leader Stephen Harper does actually continue to talk about the economy.
And, perhaps unsurprisingly, he remembers things differently.
The Conservative economic plan "brought us successfully through the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s," Harper says during his stump speech.
He points to 1.3-million "net new jobs," created since the "depths of the financial crisis."
Harper also says that "since that period, this country, Canada, has the best job creation record, the best growth and best income record of all of the major developed economies."
No coincidence
The fact both Mulcair and Trudeau are using very similar language around Harper's economic record is no accident — they are both citing the same study.
Unifor economist Jim Stanford and Jordan Brennan penned a report this summer that looked at economic data going back to 1946 — the final two years of Mackenzie King's time as prime minister and just after the end of the Second World War.
Stanford and Bennett chose the cut-off of 1946 in order to "try to exclude the impact of the unique demobilization of military and other government activities after the end of the war."
The economists dismissed the terms of John Turner, Joe Clark, and Kim Campbell with the logic that if they spent less than one full budget cycle (one year) in office, then we can't really judge their influence on the economy.
Of the remaining nine prime minister's studied, the author's averaged out all of the indicators on an annual basis so Pierre Trudeau's more than 15 years in office can be fairly compared to Paul Martin's 25 months in the job.
The report's conclusion: Harper comes dead-last in terms of job creation and GDP growth.
Statistics Canada does, however, have job and GDP numbers going back to 1921 — which brings in poor, old R.B. Bennett.
Over the lifetime of Bennett's government, after you smooth out the dip of the Great Depression and the spike of the ensuing recovery, the number of jobs in the country grew by an average of 0.46 per cent.
Harper has more than doubled that score — posting annual average job-growth of 1.1 per cent.
Alas, in the list of 10 prime ministers since and including Bennett, that is the second worst rate.
Bennett's economy shrank by an average of a little more than 2 per cent compared to 1.5 per cent annualized growth in Harper's time.
Much, much better, but — again — every prime minister between Bennett and Harper had a higher score on this.
The final rinse
All of that said, given that the financial crisis of 2008 was the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression, wouldn't it make sense that the economic indicators around that period would also be the worst since Bennett's day?
And just as Canada had no influence over the events that lead to Black Friday, which signaled the start of the Great Depression, our nation had no significant part in the mortgage and debt bubble that lead to the financial collapse in 2008.
We, and our prime ministers, were just along for the ride down.
What happens after a financial crisis is indeed influenced by what the government of the day does and is perhaps best viewed through the lens of how peer countries in similar situations come out the other side.
When it comes to Canada's track record among G7 partners, the results are debatable.
As we noted in an earlier Spin Cycle, Canada's unemployment rate in 2006, when Harper took over, stood at 6.3 per cent — fourth-best among the G7. Today, the jobless rate stands at 7.1 per cent — sliding Canada to fifth place in the G7. （2006年我們的失業率6.3%，G7中排第四；現在，我們的失業率7.1%，G7中排第五）。
縱向比，也要橫向比。 多了解曆史，多看清事實，讓自己投的那一票要有價值。
