世紀之戰54

世紀之戰54

 

弧度度

 

習皇為何要套用“修昔底德陷阱”為自己背書

 

艾利森在研究過去五百年的曆史案例中，發現有十六次出現了“崛起國挑戰守成國”的狀況，其中多達十二次以戰爭收場。於是據此提出“修昔底德陷阱”的概念：“當一個新崛起的大國威脅到現有霸權國的國際地位時，雙方極易產生恐懼與誤判，最終導致戰爭不可避免。”

 

急欲稱霸世界的習皇如獲至寶，這不就很好地闡釋了中共國為何必然挑戰美國——新崛起的大國必然挑戰過去的大國嗎？據此，習皇自封“天選之人”，走火入魔地把戰勝美國——組建“邪惡軸心”改寫現行的世界規則與秩序——作為執政的首要目標。有了十三億“安平牛馬、戰時炮灰”墊底，此時不建立千秋偉業、萬世功勳更待何時？正所謂“天下本無事，庸人自擾之”，說的就是這個理兒。

 

然據筆者觀之，套用“修昔底德陷阱”不過是一種牽強附會的誤讀，經不起更多的邏輯推敲，因為這套理論並非放之任何時代而皆準的真理。時代不一樣了，再套用“修昔底德陷阱”之類的無厘頭概念——隻能像無知無識的老慈禧那樣陷於單挑全世界的囚徒困境，換來的不是自取其辱，就是走向毀滅。

 

誤讀一：選擇性相信

 

但凡偏執狂妄之人，腦袋裏基本都會缺根弦，具體說就是選擇性相信自己所看到的東西——對自己有利的就信，對自己不利的就忽視。

 

譬如，習皇曾公開高喊出“對我有利的就堅決執行，對我不利的就絕不兌現”，但是在國際交往中，要想實現“和談”之目的，必須雙方都有所妥協才行，怎麽可能隻有一方妥協而另一方絕不讓步呢？既然“雙贏”等於中共贏兩次，誰還願意陪你玩呢？

 

再譬如，在具體執政過程中，習皇堅定奉行“該改的堅決不改，不該改的一定要改”。堅決不搞三權分立，不從源頭上杜絕腐敗，反而堅持搞越反越腐的“選擇性反腐”；寧可在眾目睽睽下裸奔——堅持修憲，也要把“十年任期製”篡改為“終身執政”——朕死之後，哪管它洪水滔天？

 

偏聽偏信的結果，隻可能是把個人意誌淩駕於國家意誌之上，用黑幫幫規取代法律法規，越是勤政越亡國，整個國家都會被偉大領袖的一次又一次“誤判”拖入無底的深淵。

 

誤讀二：到底誰沒有安全感

 

為何崛起的日本沒有挑釁美國？崛起的德國沒有挑釁美國？崛起的以色列沒有挑釁美國？反而是你中共一直在挑釁美國呢？

 

答案其實很簡單，因為獨富特色的中共不願融入世界潮流。中共靠血腥掠奪起家，在搶劫完了國內的民財後，必然實行對外擴張；中共信奉弱肉強食的野蠻叢林法則，不願受到平等互利的現行貿易規則所約束；中共好話說盡壞事做絕，時刻擔心被審判被清算，因此總想著幹翻美國當世界老大，隻有當世界老大才能不受任何製約地繼續霸淩全世界呀！

 

應該說，二戰後以美國為首主導建立的國際規則與秩序是符合時代潮流的，是受到絕大多數國家擁護的，是能夠讓那些遵守規則的國家擺脫貧困走向富強的……既然中共要改寫規則與秩序，那麽你就拿出更合適的方案來呀！既拿不出更好的替代方案，又要在國際上強推馬列邪教“共產共妻”那一套，你當全世界人民都是傻子嗎？

 

中共啊中共，睜開你的馬列邪眼看看吧，除了極少數流氓政權、邪教政權、恐怖組織為了領錢而與你同流合汙外，不但西方列強反對你，世界人民也堅決不答應。世界人民正在發出驚天怒吼：“絕不能把這個世界讓給我們鄙視的流氓！”現行秩序雖然不是最完美的，但也絕對不是霸權主義所能取代的，中共單挑全世界的結局隻可能是遭到群毆。

 

誤讀三：拿什麽挑戰美國

 

中共國真的崛起了嗎？六億人月入不足一千元，九億人月入不足兩千元，八點三億人背負沉重的債務……民企加速倒閉，外資加速撤離，大學生畢業即失業，每年有上千萬應屆畢業生加入失業大軍，百分之四十二以上的青壯年勞力已處於準失業——被迫躺平狀態……除了每年通過統計數據造假來塑造“世界第二大經濟體”的虛假繁榮外，請問你從哪一點看出中共國確實崛起了？

 

前蘇聯的垮掉，既不是由於“竟無一人是男兒”，也不是因為美、蘇的軍備競賽（那些都是次要原因），真正的原因是計劃經濟走入了死胡同，再也拿不出錢來豢養加盟小弟了。請問，沒有錢誰還願意跟你混？今天的中共，非但不願對照曆史進行反思，反而自認為從中汲取了發揚光大的經驗，這是何等的荒謬絕倫？

 

習皇啊習皇，你連台灣都收不回來，連盟友都保護不住，請問你拿什麽同美國進行世紀大決戰？是你的一次次誤判，還是經不起任何實戰檢驗的防空雷達？在你尚未作出反應之前，中共黨衛軍部署在伊朗的“先進武器”就被炸成了破銅爛鐵，整個神棍集團在開戰三分鍾內被就被集體團滅，而伊朗對此卻毫無還手之力……既然你輸出的是最先進的武器對抗美國，而它們卻隻能淪為戰爭史上的笑料，請問你那顆被“四個自信”武裝起來的傲嬌玻璃心又能強撐多久呢？

 

首先，美國不是“霸權主義”國家，而是文明國家公認的“世界領袖”；其次，美國擁有強大的糾錯機製，擁有無與倫比的自我修複能力……被“修昔底德陷阱”迷惑了心智的習皇啊，還是早點認清現實、迷途知返吧！“修昔底德陷阱”不是你的救命稻草，而是引誘你從一個失敗走向另一個失敗的致命陷阱。

 

（未完待續）

 

The Battle of the Century, Chapter 54

 

Hu Dudu 

 

Why Does Xi Jinping Use the "Thucydides Trap" to Justify His Own Stance?

 

Allison, in studying historical cases over the past five hundred years, discovered sixteen instances of "rising powers challenging established powers," twelve of which ended in war. Based on this, he proposed the concept of the "Thucydides Trap": "When a newly rising power threatens the international status of an existing hegemonic power, both sides are highly susceptible to fear and miscalculation, ultimately leading to inevitable war."

 

Xi Jinping, eager to dominate the world, saw this as a perfect explanation for why China inevitably challenges the United States—a newly rising power inevitably challenges an established power. Based on this, Xi proclaimed himself the "chosen one," obsessively making defeating the United States—forming an "axis of evil" to rewrite the current world rules and order—his primary goal in governing. With 1.3 billion "peaceful laborers and wartime cannon fodder" as a foundation, when else would he not establish a great and lasting legacy? As the saying goes, "There's nothing inherently wrong in the world; it's just that fools create trouble for themselves," which perfectly illustrates this point.

 

However, in my view, applying the "Thucydides Trap" is merely a far-fetched misinterpretation that cannot withstand further logical scrutiny, because this theory is not a universally applicable truth. Times have changed, and continuing to apply nonsensical concepts like the "Thucydides Trap" will only lead to a prisoner's dilemma—like the ignorant and foolish Empress Dowager Cixi—a situation that results in either self-humiliation or destruction.

 

Misinterpretation 1: Selective Belief

 

Those who are biased and arrogant are generally lacking in common sense; specifically, they selectively believe what they see—believing what is beneficial to them and ignoring what is detrimental.

 

For example, Xi Jinping once publicly declared, "What is beneficial to me will be resolutely implemented, and what is detrimental to me will never be honored." However, in international relations, to achieve the goal of "peace talks," both sides must compromise. How can one side compromise while the other refuses to concede? Since a "win-win" situation equates to the CCP winning twice, who would want to play along?

 

For example, in the specific process of governance, Xi Jinping firmly adheres to the principle of "resolutely not changing what should be changed, and insisting on changing what shouldn't be changed." He resolutely refuses to implement the separation of powers, and instead of eradicating corruption at its source, he insists on "selective anti-corruption," which only exacerbates corruption. He'd rather run naked in the public eye—insisting on amending the constitution to change the "ten-year term" to "lifelong rule"—after his death, what does it matter if the world is in chaos?

 

The result of such biased listening and believing can only be placing personal will above the will of the state, replacing laws and regulations with gang rules, and leading to the downfall of the nation the more diligent the leader is. The entire country will be dragged into an abyss by the great leader's repeated "misjudgments."

 

Misconception 2: Who Really Feels Insecure?

 

Why hasn't a rising Japan provoked the US? Why hasn't a rising Germany provoked the US? Why hasn't a rising Israel provoked the US? Why is it that the CCP is constantly provoking the US?

 

The answer is actually quite simple: because the CCP, with its unique characteristics, is unwilling to integrate into the global trend. The CCP rose to power through bloody plunder, and after robbing its own people of their wealth, it inevitably pursues external expansion. The CCP believes in the brutal law of the jungle, the survival of the fittest, and is unwilling to be bound by the existing rules of equal and mutually beneficial trade. The CCP speaks sweet words but commits heinous acts, constantly fearing trial and reckoning, and therefore always dreams of overthrowing the US and becoming the world's hegemon. Only by becoming the world's hegemon can it continue to bully the world without any constraints!

 

It should be said that the international rules and order established after World War II, led by the US, are in line with the trend of the times, supported by the vast majority of countries, and capable of enabling those countries that abide by the rules to escape poverty and become prosperous… Since the CCP wants to rewrite the rules and order, then it should come up with a more suitable solution! Unable to offer a better alternative, yet insisting on pushing its Marxist-Leninist cult-like "communist communal wives" ideology internationally—does it think the world is stupid?

 

CCP, oh CCP, open your Marxist-Leninist eyes and see! Aside from a tiny minority of rogue regimes, cults, and terrorist organizations colluding with you for money, not only do Western powers oppose you, but the world's people resolutely refuse to accept it. The world is roaring in fury: "We must not let this world be handed over to these despicable rogues!" While the current order is not perfect, it is certainly not something that hegemony can replace. The CCP's attempt to challenge the world alone will only result in being ganged up on.

 

Misconception Three: What Can Challenge the US With?

 

Has the CCP truly risen? Six hundred million people earn less than 1,000 yuan a month, nine hundred million earn less than 2,000 yuan a month, and eight hundred million are burdened with heavy debt… Private enterprises are collapsing at an accelerated pace, foreign capital is withdrawing rapidly, college graduates face unemployment immediately upon graduation, and tens of millions of new graduates join the ranks of the unemployed every year. Over 42% of the young and middle-aged workforce is already in a state of near-unemployment—forced into a state of complacency… Besides fabricating statistics annually to create a false sense of prosperity as the "world's second-largest economy," from which point do you see that the CCP has truly risen?

 

The collapse of the Soviet Union was not due to a lack of capable men, nor was it due to the arms race between the US and the USSR (those were secondary reasons). The real reason was that the planned economy had reached a dead end, and it could no longer afford to support its former allies. Without money, who would want to follow you? Today's CCP, instead of reflecting on history, believes it has learned from and expanded upon its past experiences—how utterly absurd!

 

Xi Jinping, you can't even reclaim Taiwan, you can't protect your allies, so what makes you think you can wage a decisive battle against the United States? Is it your repeated miscalculations, or your air defense radars that can't withstand any real combat testing? Before you could even react, the "advanced weapons" deployed by the CCP's armed forces in Iran were reduced to scrap metal, and the entire cult was wiped out within three minutes of the start of the war, while Iran was utterly powerless to retaliate… Since you're exporting the most advanced weapons to confront the United States, and they only become a laughing stock in the history of warfare, how long can your arrogant, fragile heart, armed with the "Four Confidences," hold up?

 

First, the United States is not a "hegemonic" power, but a recognized "world leader" among civilized nations; second, the United States possesses a powerful error-correction mechanism and unparalleled self-repair capabilities… Xi Jinping, blinded by the "Thucydides Trap," should recognize reality and turn back from your misguided path as soon as possible! The "Thucydides Trap" is not your lifeline, but a deadly trap that lures you from one failure to another.

 

(To be continued)