Ukraine in a Great War with Russia: An Experience That Changes Europes Defense
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Kherson A couple of days ago, I took part in an international roundtable at the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform on the topicUkraine in a Great War with Russia: An Experience That Changes Europes Defense. Representatives from Ukraine, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, and Moldova also participated.
I was in the war zones of Kherson, but I had a nice time enjoying this useful meeting with other analysts from Ukraine and other countries.
Heres the text of my speech, to share what I talked about for further information.
If this war has changed Ukraine, it has changed Europe even more.The question today is not only how to help Ukraine survive but whether Europe is ready to think and act as a geopolitical power.
1 The first step toward strategic autonomy is clear:
Europe must stop financing Russian aggression through energy purchases.
Every euro spent on Russian gas is converted into missiles, glide bombs, drones, and propaganda.
Energy dependence is not an economic issue it is a security vulnerability. Public data speak for themselves: the record increase in Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports into the EU in January 2026 is real and documented. According to calculations based on data from the European think tank Bruegel, EU imports of Russian LNG in January 2026 reached approximately 2.276 billion cubic meters, a level higher than in December 2025 and significantly higher than in the same month of the previous year.
Over four years, Europe has transferred over 200 billion to Russia for energy, while providing roughly 150 billion to Ukraine. With payments to Moscow still ongoing each month, the imbalance is stark: As both Swedens Foreign Minister and Lithuanias President have observed, Europe has rewarded the aggressor more than it has sustained the defender.
So, if Europe wants to free itself from structural dependence including overreliance on external security guarantees it must begin with energy sovereignty.
2 The second step is industrial integration not symbolic integration.
Ukraine should be integrated into Europes missile production chain immediately.
Consider the example of the SAMP/T, which uses the Aster 30 interceptor. Technically, SAMP/T is equivalent and in some operational aspects superior to the Patriot. The Aster 30 features active radar homing and a highly agile PIF-PAF control system that enhances terminal maneuverability against ballistic targets. It continuously scans the azimuth without the lengthy calibration process required by the Patriot, which is directional. This translates into shorter deployment times, making the SAMP/T operational in 30 45 minutes and the Patriot in 60 90.
From an industrial standpoint, European production chains offer flexibility.
MBDA has quintupled missile output since the full-scale invasion. Its multinational structure France, Italy, and the UK enables modular integration of suppliers. By contrast, although Raytheon and Lockheed Martin have reportedly tripled output on certain production lines, integrating PAC-3 interceptor manufacturing in Ukraine would be far more complex because of export controls, restrictions, and higher levels of technological compartmentalization. Moreover, export versions of PAC-3 interceptors often cost nearly double the domestic U.S. acquisition cost.
European systems offer not only strategic autonomy but also cost rationality and industrial sovereignty.
Ukraines Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, has called for localized production of interceptors similar to PAC-3. However, from an engineering and legal perspective, Aster-family systems are structurally easier to integrate into a European-Ukrainian co-production model.
This is not charity.
It is rational defense economics.
3 Russian propaganda insists that Ukraines main problem is a lack of manpower.
This framing serves two purposes:
1. To project inevitability Ukraine is exhausted.
2. To discourage Western support Weapons wont change the outcome.
- 3. To send the ball back into Ukraines territory Zelensky should recruit men from the 18 24 age group, too.
But this is misleading.
For the past three months, Russias verified losses have exceeded its sustainable recruitment capacity. Its advances on the ground are limited and tactical, not operational breakthroughs.
The front does not move significantly.
What moves is technology.
We no longer see classic gray zones in the traditional military sense but rathershades of graythat extend from the kill zone to hundreds of kilometers.
We seeshifting technological gradients in drone-dominance sectors, EW-saturated corridors, and sensor-controlled kill grids.
Russia is not advancing territorially in decisive ways.
It is advancing in narrative space.
On the battlefield we see a relative stasis.
In the information space, Russia describes a constant offensive to please Trump and discourage assistance to Ukraine.
The war has becomea technological duel. This is whyindustrial integration matters more than demographic rhetoric does.
4 We all hope Ukraine has already started rebuilding its strategic arsenal.
Article 10 of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed by Ukraine, grantsUkraine the right to rebuild its nuclear arsenal if its sovereignty and territorial integrity are under threat, as a consequence of what was signed in Lisbon and Budapest.
This should beintegrated into a European perspective, as we have already observed that Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty which says that EU member states are obligated to provide aid and assistanceby all the means in their powerif a member is attacked is even more stringent than NATOs Article 5, which is less determinate, allowing each state to takesuch action as it deems necessary.
From a strictly legal perspective, Europes own treaty language contains a stronger textual obligation.
Integrating Ukraines armed forces into Europes defense architecture is therefore not an escalation it is deterrence coherence.
It is in Europes interest.
It is in NATOs interest.
Therefore,a technologically integrated Ukrainian army strengthens European defense.
What Europe lacks is not resources.It lacks synchronized urgency.
A stream of consciousness a unified strategic reflex is required.
- Energy independence.
- Industrial integration.
- Missile co-production.
- Information resilience.
Russia advances in propaganda precisely where Europe hesitates.
Ukraine has already shown that Russian strength was exaggerated.
Now Europe must demonstrate that its own strength is not.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our houses heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ????????
烏克蘭與俄羅斯的大規模戰爭：改變歐洲防務的經驗
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
赫爾鬆幾天前，我在烏克蘭通訊社Ukrinform參加了一場主題為烏克蘭與俄羅斯的大規模戰爭：改變歐洲防務的經驗的國際圓桌會議。來自烏克蘭、德國、拉脫維亞、立陶宛和摩爾多瓦的代表也出席了會議。
我當時在赫爾鬆的戰區，但在與烏克蘭及其他國家的分析人士一起參加這場富有成效的會議時，我度過了愉快的時光。
以下是我在會上的發言稿，分享我所討論的內容，供進一步參考。
（圖：我赫爾鬆通過顯示屏在烏克蘭基輔Ukrinform會議上發言）
（圖：我在頓巴斯烏克蘭防線報道版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
如果這場戰爭改變了烏克蘭，那麽它對歐洲的改變更為深遠。今天的問題不僅是如何幫助烏克蘭生存下去，而是歐洲是否準備好以地緣政治強國的姿態去思考和行動。
1通往戰略自主的第一步很清晰：
歐洲必須停止通過能源采購為俄羅斯的侵略買單。
花在俄羅斯天然氣上的每一歐元都會被轉化為導彈、滑翔炸彈、無人機和虛假宣傳。
能源依賴不是單純的經濟問題它是一個安全弱點。公共數據不言自明：2026年1月歐盟對俄羅斯液化天然氣（LNG）進口創紀錄的增長是真實且有據可查的。根據歐洲智庫布魯蓋爾的數據估算，2026年1月歐盟從俄羅斯進口的LNG約為22.76億立方米，高於2025年12月，並遠高於去年同期。
四年間，歐洲為能源向俄羅斯轉移了超過2000億歐元，而對烏克蘭的支持大約為1500億歐元。考慮到每月仍在向莫斯科支付資金，這一不平衡十分明顯：正如瑞典外長和立陶宛總統所指出的，歐洲對侵略者的獎勵超過了對被侵略者的支持。
因此，如果歐洲想擺脫結構性依賴包括對外部安全保障的過度依賴就必須從能源主權開始。
（圖：Alla在一條烏克蘭戰壕內作報道版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
2第二步是產業一體化而不是象征性的融合。
烏克蘭應立即融入歐洲的導彈生產鏈。
以使用Aster 30攔截導彈的SAMP/T為例。從技術上講，SAMP/T相當於愛國者係統在某些作戰方麵甚至更優。Aster 30采用主動雷達製導和高度機動的PIF-PAF控製係統，增強了對彈道目標的末段機動攔截能力。它可連續掃描方位，無需像方向性較強的愛國者那樣進行冗長的校準過程。這意味著部署時間更短：SAMP/T可在3045分鍾內投入運作，而愛國者需6090分鍾。
從產業角度看，歐洲的生產鏈具有靈活性。
自全麵入侵以來，MBDA的導彈產量已增長了五倍。其多國結構法國、意大利和英國使供應商能夠模塊化整合。相比之下，盡管據稱雷神與洛克希德馬丁在某些生產線上的產量已增至三倍，但要在烏克蘭整合PAC-3攔截彈的製造將複雜得多，因涉及出口管製、限製及更高程度的技術分隔。而且PAC-3攔截彈出口版的成本通常接近其美國國內采購成本的兩倍。
歐洲體係不僅提供戰略自主，還有成本合理性和產業主權。
烏克蘭數字化轉型部長米哈伊洛費多羅夫曾呼籲在本地化生產類似PAC-3的攔截彈。然而從工程與法律角度看，Aster家族係統在結構上更易於整合進歐烏共同生產模式。
這不是施舍。
這是理性的國防經濟學。
（圖：我們在烏克蘭赫爾鬆報道時，Alla站在被俄羅斯聯邦摧毀的民用基礎設施廢墟旁????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
3俄羅斯宣傳堅持將烏克蘭的主要問題描述為兵力不足。
這種話術有兩個目的：
1.傳達不可避免性烏克蘭已精疲力竭；
2.勸阻西方支持武器改變不了結果；
3.把責任推回烏克蘭國內澤連斯基也應從1824歲年齡段征募兵員。
但這具有誤導性。
在過去三個月中，俄羅斯的已核實傷亡已超過其可持續征兵能力。其地麵推進是有限且屬於戰術層麵的，而非作戰性突破。
戰線並未發生顯著移動。
真正發生變化的是技術。
我們已不再看到傳統軍事意義上的經典灰色地帶，而是從殺傷區延伸數百公裏的灰色梯度。
我們看到在無人機主導的區域、電磁戰（EW）密集的通道和由傳感器控製的殺傷網格中存在不斷變化的技術梯度。
俄羅斯在領土上並未取得決定性推進。
它在敘事領域取得了進展。
在戰場上我們看到的是相對僵持。
在信息領域，俄羅斯描述持續進攻的圖景，以取悅特朗普並勸阻對烏援助。
戰爭已成為一場技術對決。這正是為何產業一體化比人口論調更為重要。
（圖：我在接近戰區的紮波羅熱一處加油站屋頂上指著俄羅斯無人機留下的洞版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
4我們都希望烏克蘭已經開始重建其戰略武庫。
烏克蘭簽署的《不擴散核武器條約》第10條，賦予烏克蘭在主權和領土完整受到威脅時重建其核武庫的權利，這是對裏斯本與布達佩斯所簽協議的延伸。
這一點應當被納入歐洲視角。正如我們已觀察到的，裏斯本條約第42.7條規定若歐盟成員國遭受攻擊，其他成員國有義務盡其所能提供援助和協助在措辭上甚至比北約第五條更為嚴格，後者措辭較為不確定，允許各國采取其認為必要的行動。
從嚴格的法律角度看，歐洲自身的條約文本包含更強的書麵義務。
因此，將烏克蘭武裝力量融入歐洲防務架構並非升級，而是威懾的一致性。
這符合歐洲的利益。
這也符合北約的利益。
（圖：我指著一枚俄羅斯格蘭無人機，該無人機含有中國和西方的軍民兩用組件版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
因此，技術一體化烏克蘭軍隊將增強歐洲防務。
歐洲欠缺的不是資源，而是同步的緊迫感。
需要一種意識流統一的戰略反射。
能源獨立。
產業一體化。
導彈共製。
信息韌性。
歐洲猶豫之處，正是俄羅斯宣傳進展之處。
烏克蘭已證明俄羅斯的實力被誇大。
現在歐洲必須證明其自身的實力並非如此。
（圖：我在赫爾鬆，寫下這篇演講稿前的片刻版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
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在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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