The Impossible Challenge For Ukrainian Engineers. Who Struggle To Make It Possible.
By：Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Kyiv At this delicate moment in the war, limited and inefficient Western military support, along with the choices made or rather, imposed regarding rebuilding its strategic deterrence, requireUkraine to invest in new technologies that increase the explosive potential of the weapons it already possesses, thereby leveraging conventional deterrence. For Kyiv, it has become imperative to understand which technological lines increase the overall military effectiveness of drones and other missiles before the West imposes new operational caveats and, with its constant flow of money to Moscow, continues to finance the Russian war machine.
Theanalysisof Ukraines new Defense Minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, is merciless: in terms of speed (600 km/h), range (1,000 km), aerodynamic profile (6 meters long with a 5.5-meter wingspan), and payload (90 kg of warhead for a total weight of 850 kg),the new Russian Geran-5 drones are cruise missiles through and through. They can be launched from Su-25 aircraft and use jet propulsion powered by Chinese Telefly engines, with satellite guidance enhanced by 4G/LTE connectivity.
The dronereportedin the skies over Dnipropetrovsk on Monday byseveralwarfare institutes a BM-35 isby no means the first Russian drone equipped with Starlink technology: weve been reporting on it for at least a year, noting medium-range capabilities that even worry Ukraines neighbors.
Fiber optics, microchips, and Chinese engines allowRussian Garpija drones to be launched en masse to saturate Ukrainian defenses, forcing Kyiv and its allies to expend disproportionate resources on interceptions and countermeasures.
Thenew class of Russian technologies developed with Chinese industrial input is rapidly evolving and combines advanced electronic warfare capabilities, artificial intelligence to automate counterattacks, real-time targeting and analysis, and the integration of inertial sensors with large-scale digital systems.
The news is no longer that, despite declaring neutrality,Beijing is a key supplier of critical components for the Russian military. Unfortunately, it also isnt thatthe European Union itself largely finances the Russian war machine more than Ukrainian defense, withrecordhydrocarbon purchases that willcontinueuntil the end of 2027, the dawn of the 14th year since Russia began invading Ukraine. The problem is that, with the little it receives compared to what is given to Moscow (50% less economically and through much less direct methods than the monthly transfer to Russia),Kyiv faces difficult technological challenges in a very short timeframe and with extremely limited resources.
The Ukrainian Defense Forces have struck a series of critical enemy targets on Russian soil, but the damage has been limited and often quickly repairable.
Just the night before last, the Ukrainian General Staffconfirmedsuccessful strikes against: a Russian drone hub near Velyka Novosilka; enemy forces concentrated in Shakhovo and Hrihorivka; the Khocholskaya oil base in the Voronezh region; a Russian ammunition depot in the Nizhnia Duvanka area (Luhansk); enemy troops gathered in Huliaypole (Zaporizhzhia) and Kolotilovka (Belgorod); and the battalion checkpoint in Berezovo (Dnipropetrovsk).
If Ukraine had more effective weapons, these attacks and those targeting hydrocarbon extraction, refining, and storage infrastructure would have far more severe effects, similar to those Ukraine is currently experiencing.
To overcome this disproportion, Ukrainian engineers must work on factors that can be summarized in a basic equation:P m * Q * , where P represents the launch vehicles potential upon impact, the symbol indicates approximation, m is the payload mass, Q is the specific energy (MJ/kg), and (Greek letter eta) represents the launch vehicles efficiency (shape, drag, resistance, range, etc.).
The goal of the Ukrainian engineers is to increase m and Q while reducing total weight. To do this, the work consists in testing standardized munitions scalable to drones, nanoalloys, high-yield nitroamines, high-velocity, high-melting-point military explosives (HMX) or even CL-20 (hexanitrohexazosyl-wurtzitane, one of the most powerful explosives known) in 3D-printed polymer matrices (PBX), reactive structural materials (RMS), intermetallic compounds, enriched metal and nanothermite warheads, co-crystallization techniques, and hybrid technologies with nanoparticles for amplified blasts. These technologiesincrease the reaction surface, prolong the shock wave pulse, enhance overpressure, and maximize kinetic energywithout resorting to the thermobaric compounds Russiauses, which have a much lower cost per joule and are easier to source.
This has led to an increase in Q and, more generally,a significant technological leap, as FPV drones have evolved from being equipped with mortar rounds to carrying shells made of carbon fiber and graphene composites or missiles like the Long Neptune and Flamingo, which cancarry AI-guided warheads with double the m and Q of those of the much Western missiles but at infinitely lower costs.
Technological advances have reduced the acoustic and visual signatures of the launchers, improved their resilience to electronic warfare, and enhanced target discrimination in difficult atmospheric conditions like the current ones. Heterogeneous swarms, including decoys, and optimized production chains have allowed themto increase their offensive capability more than the Russians have adapted their defensive capability.
However,this is not enough.
Despite working on routing algorithms, geometries, radar-absorbent materials, thermal management, structural lightening (every single bolt has an impact), propulsive efficiency, and range autonomy to improve ,the challenge remains extremely difficult because despite having a GDP equal to Italys Moscow benefits from larger budgets (indirectly financed by the EU), has reliable partners, and operates without the restrictions imposed on Ukraine.
It is within this imbalance that the real game of the coming months will be played out.For Kyiv, conventional deterrence is not a choice but an existential necessity: doing more with less, faster than the enemy, and before new political constraints further erode its margin of action.Every externally imposed technological delay translates into an operational advantage for Moscow, even as those who claim to support Ukraine finance it. Without a profound revision of this paradox, Ukraines survival will continue to depend not on the amount of aid received but on the ability of its engineers to bend physics, industry, and time to favor a deterrence that the West continues to promise but not to guarantee.
The continuous blackouts severely damaged the heating system of our house in Western Ukraine while we were in Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins to help us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends ????????????????
烏克蘭工程師麵臨的不可能挑戰：他們竭力將不可能變為可能
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
基輔在戰爭的這一敏感時刻，有限且低效的西方軍事支援，以及關於重建其戰略威懾所做的選擇或更確切地說，是被迫接受的選擇要求烏克蘭投資於能夠提升現有武器爆炸潛能的新技術，從而增強常規威懾。對基輔而言，迫切需要弄清楚哪些技術路線能在西方施加新的作戰限製之前提高無人機及其他導彈的整體作戰效能；否則，在西方向莫斯科不斷輸送資金並持續為俄羅斯軍火機器輸血的背景下，戰局將更為不利。
（圖：我在烏克蘭戰區版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
烏克蘭新任國防部長米哈伊洛費多羅夫的分析絲毫不留情麵：就速度（600公裏/小時）、射程（1000公裏）、空氣動力學特征（機身長約6米、翼展約5.5米）以及有效載荷（彈頭90公斤，總重約850公斤）而言，新型俄羅斯格蘭?5（Geran?5）無人機完全就是巡航導彈。它們可由蘇?25發射，采用中國Telefly的噴氣發動機推進，並通過衛星製導輔以4G/LTE連接增強製導能力。
周一由多個戰爭研究機構報告的在第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克上空出現的被稱為BM?35的無人機，絕非首例裝備Starlink技術的俄羅斯無人機：我們至少已跟蹤報道了一年，指出其具有中程能力，甚至令烏克蘭的鄰國感到擔憂。
光纖、微芯片與中國產發動機使得俄羅斯的加爾皮亞（Garpija）無人機能夠批量發射讓烏克蘭防禦疲於應付，迫使基輔及其盟友在攔截與對抗措施上消耗不成比例的資源。
這一新型俄羅斯技術在中方工業參與下正快速演進，集成了先進的電子戰能力、用於自動化反製的人工智能、實時目標定位與分析，以及慣性傳感器與大規模數字係統的融合。
令人驚訝的不再是北京在宣稱中立的同時，仍為俄軍提供關鍵零部件；更令人無奈的是，歐盟本身對俄羅斯戰爭機器的資金支持（通過創紀錄的化石燃料采購）在總體上已超過對烏克蘭防務的支持，這種采購將持續到2027年末也就是俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的第14個年頭之際。問題在於，基輔所獲支持與流向莫斯科的資源相比嚴重不足（在經濟量上少50%，且方式遠不如對俄的月度轉賬直接），這使得烏克蘭必須在極為有限的資源與極短的時間內，麵對艱巨的技術挑戰。
（圖表來源：CREA）
烏克蘭國防力量雖對俄境內一係列關鍵目標實施了打擊，但破壞往往有限且可快速修複。
就在前晚，烏克蘭總參謀部確認成功打擊目標包括：位於大諾沃西利卡（Velyka Novosilka）附近的俄羅斯無人機樞紐；在沙霍沃（Shakhovo）和格裏霍裏夫卡（Hrihorivka）集結的敵軍；沃羅涅日州的Khocholskaya石油基地；盧甘斯克尼日尼亞杜萬卡（Nizhnia Duvanka）地區的俄羅斯彈藥庫；紮波羅熱的胡利艾波勒（Huliaypole）與別爾哥羅德的科洛蒂洛夫卡（Kolotilovka）集結的敵軍；以及第聶伯羅彼得羅夫斯克貝列佐沃（Berezovo）的一處營級檢查站。
若烏克蘭擁有更具效力的武器，這些打擊以及針對碳氫化合物開采、煉製與儲存基礎設施的攻擊將產生更為嚴重的後果，與烏克蘭當前所承受的類似。
（圖：彭薩一處油庫被毀的燃料罐，2026/01/25，圖片來源：自由歐洲電台）
為克服這種不均衡，烏克蘭工程師必須針對可以歸納為基本方程式的因素開展工作：Pm * Q *，其中P代表發射體在衝擊時的潛能，符號表示近似，m為有效荷載質量，Q為比能（MJ/kg），（希臘字母eta）代表發射體效率（形狀、阻力、抗性、射程等）。
烏克蘭工程師的目標是在減輕總體重量的同時提高m與Q。為此，他們正在測試可擴展到無人機的平台化標準彈藥、納米合金、高能硝胺類、具有高速度與高熔點的軍事炸藥（如HMX）甚至CL?20（六硝基六氮雜環-瓦氏烷，已知最強炸藥之一）在3D打印聚合物基體（PBX）中的應用，反應性結構材料（RMS）、金屬間化合物、富金屬與納米鋁熱劑彈頭、共結晶技術以及含納米顆粒的混合技術以放大爆炸效應。這些技術能增大反應表麵、延長衝擊波脈衝、增強超壓並在不使用俄羅斯所用的熱壓混合物（其每焦耳成本更低且更易獲得）的前提下最大化動能。
這導致Q值上升，並帶來更普遍的技術飛躍：FPV無人機已從攜帶迫擊彈發展為搭載碳纖維與石墨烯複合材料彈體的彈藥，或如長海王（Long Neptune）與火烈鳥（Flamingo）之類的導彈，這些武器能夠攜帶由人工智能製導、在m與Q上均為許多西方導彈兩倍的彈頭，但成本卻低得多。
技術進步降低了發射器的聲學與視覺特征，提高了其對電子戰的抗幹擾能力，並增強了在當前這類惡劣大氣條件下的目標判識能力。包含誘餌在內的異構蜂群與優化的生產鏈，使得其進攻能力提升速度超過了俄方防護能力的適應速度。
然而，這仍不夠。
盡管烏克蘭工程師在路徑規劃算法、幾何形狀、雷達吸波材料、熱管理、結構輕量化（每一顆螺栓都至關重要）、推進效率與航程自主性等方麵不斷改進以提升，但挑戰依然極為艱巨因莫斯科雖與意大利擁有相當的GDP卻享有更大的預算（歐盟間接資助）、有可靠的夥伴，並且行事不受施加於烏克蘭的種種限製。
正是在這種不均衡中，未來數月真正博弈將展開。對基輔而言，常規威懾不是一種選擇，而是生存的必要：以更少的資源、更快於敵人的速度、並在新的政治限製進一步蠶食其行動空間之前取得優勢。任何外部強加的技術拖延都會轉化為莫斯科的戰術優勢，即便那些聲稱支持烏克蘭的力量也在以實際行動資助俄羅斯。在不對這一悖論進行深刻修正的前提下，烏克蘭的生存將繼續取決於其工程師將物理、工業與時間扭曲為有利於威懾的能力，而不是所獲援助的數量這是西方不斷承諾卻未能保障的東西。
（圖：在寫本文前數分鍾，我在基輔霍斯托梅利現場報道????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
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持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
????????如果你相信我們的工作，請支持我們????????????
在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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