原文鏈接：https://medium.com/@giorgioprovinciali/a-political-and-strategic-vacuum-re-ukraine-891bb985dce2?sk=870df47e303b4074d51fed157543b041
A Political and Strategic Vacuum re Ukraine
By: Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Berestyn Although officially restored on approved devices, Starlink connectivity remains unstable in Ukraine, even for whitelisted users.
For a couple of days during the air raid alert, Elon Musks satellite network was unreachable, even for verified accounts, and Russian strikes using vectors interfaced with that system decreased. Then, connectivity appeared to stabilize, and the strikes resumed with increasing brutality, targeting Ukraines civilian infrastructure, including energy infrastructure.
On the night of February 7, Ukrainian anti-aircraft defenses downed 382 long-range, high-explosive drones and 24 other missiles. The Russians had launched 408 and 39, respectively, damaging a school in Ladyzhyn (Vinnytsia Oblast), buildings and thermal power plants in Stary Dobrotvir (Lviv), Burshtyn (Prykarpattia), Halicia and Rogatyn (Ivano-Frankivsk), Uman (Cherkasy), as well as substations in Rivne and Volyn directly connected to the local nuclear power plant. It wasthe tenth combined Russian attack on DTEK infrastructure since last October and the two hundred and twentieth since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The following night, it was criminally completed with another extremely violent strike targeting Naftogazs DSN units in the Poltava region. Being in those areas, we were able to document it. It was purely for the record, sinceour videos constitute evidence of the systematic violation of international law that effectively no longer exists.
The Russian military intentionally struck Ukraines main power grid, seriously compromising the energy and nuclear security of an active member of the IAEA Board of Governors.
Yet what was the reaction of the so-called free world? Nothing. No activation of specific nuclear security-related deterrent mechanisms. No formalized red line on targeting the power grid as a vector of nuclear risk. No credible political or military consequences for those who deliberately gambled with nuclear power. No acknowledgement of the fact that this problem concerns everyone, not just Ukraine.
Beyond the attack itself, the disturbing point is the political and strategic vacuum that followed.
By intentionally striking Ukraines main power grid, Moscow did more than simply bomb civilian infrastructure: itthreatened European and global nuclear security. In a system like Ukraines, the power grid is integral to nuclear power plant safety: it powers cooling, control, monitoring, and backup systems. Systematically interrupting it means deliberately approaching the threshold of a nuclear accident.
The Burshtyn and Dobrotvir thermal power plants provide generation, while the substations and 750 kV and 330 kV overhead lines that pass through the other aforementioned facilities are the vector. Severely damaging or destroying these facilities civilian and protected by a dense network of international treaties resulted in the unloading of nuclear power plants, which were forced to reduce generation capacity.
At Ukrenergos request, the volume of outages was therefore increased, confident that these additional limitations could contribute to balancing the energy system, along with electricity imports through urgent requests to countries like Poland.
Is it possible that the attack on the nuclear security of a country that directly contributes to the global governance of civil nuclear power went so unnoticed?
The rules-based worlds last fig leaf thus covered a strategic cowardice: nuclear risk is tolerable, as long as it stays elsewhere.
Media attention is focused onthe alleged advantage gained by the belated stance taken by Elon Musk, owner of Starlink, which in reality is an integral part of the American blackmail against Ukraine. As we explained in our previous articles, the US intentionally left Ukrainian air defenses unprotected despite knowing of the impending Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, which they actually contributed to making more powerful, staging the farce of an energy truce until Moscow could strike with the greatest possible force when the record cold would have multiplied the damage. Then, four years late, they activated the same satellite internet containment measures they had committed to implementing in 2022, only to then do so with the roles reversed. Given the enormous amount of false information and uncritical reporting from other agencies that many Italian media outlets are passing off as news from the field, it is perhaps time to clarify some observations we subtlymadein our last article.
Again:
Russia is not among the countries covered by Starlink. So why did Elon Musk wait so long to deactivate the service? Ukraine is, however, among the countries covered by the service. However, when the Ukrainian government legitimately asked Elon Musk to provide the service in Crimea, legally part of Ukraine, he refused, preventing the Ukrainians from using it for offensive operations. Musk then maintained this position during the Kursk operation,jeopardizingits success. Likewise, it should be noted that indiscriminately blocking all signals on Ukrainian territories illegally occupied by the Russian Federation now prevents the Ukrainians from conducting deep-sea strikes to reconquer them.
Therefore, the introduction of the whitelist will make sense as long as Kyiv decides which devices to authorize on its entire territory and as long as the Starlink company keeps its commitment publicly stated but culpably neglected during four years of war not to provide services in Russia.
Rejoicing over a superficially reported fact and remaining silent on such an obvious issue is not carelessness: it is narrative complicity.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our houses heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, friends ????????
烏克蘭問題的政治與戰略真空
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
貝列斯廷盡管在已批準的設備上官方恢複了連接，Starlink在烏克蘭仍然不穩定，即便對白名單用戶亦如此。
空襲警報期間有幾天，埃隆馬斯克的衛星網絡，即使是經過驗證的賬號，也無法連接，與該係統相連的俄方襲擊有所減少。隨後連接似乎恢複穩定，襲擊也以更殘酷的方式恢複，針對烏克蘭的民用基礎設施，包括能源設施。
2月7日晚，烏克蘭防空係統擊落了382架遠程高爆無人機和另外24枚導彈。俄軍分別發射了408架和39枚，致使文尼察州拉迪任的一所學校受損，利沃夫州斯塔裏多布羅特維爾、普裏卡爾帕提亞的布爾什丁、伊萬諾-弗蘭基夫斯克的哈利恰與羅哈亭、切爾卡瑟的烏曼的建築與熱電廠受損，以及直連當地核電站的日維訥與沃倫的變電站受損。
這是俄方自去年十月以來對DTEK基礎設施的第十次聯合攻擊，也是自全麵入侵烏克蘭以來的第二百二十次。次日夜間，這一罪行以對波爾塔瓦州的納夫托加茲的配電單元的又一次極為猛烈而告完成。我們當時身處這些地區，得以記錄下這一事件。這純粹是為了存證，因為我們的視頻成為了已形同虛設的國際法被係統性違反的證據。
（圖：Alla凝視切爾尼戈夫被俄軍摧毀的民用基礎設施。她肩旁另一處民用設施一家藥房亦被俄聯邦摧毀版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
俄軍蓄意襲擊烏克蘭的主電網，嚴重破壞了一名在任國際原子能機構（IAEA）理事會成員國的能源與核安全。
然而，所謂自由世界的反應是什麽？無動於衷。沒有啟動任何專門針對核安全的威懾機製。沒有就將電網作為核風險載體而設定的正式紅線。對於那些蓄意拿核能冒險者，既無可信的政治後果也無軍事製裁。也無人承認這一問題關係到所有人，而不僅僅是烏克蘭。
除了襲擊本身，更令人不安的是隨後出現的政治與戰略真空。
莫斯科有意打擊烏克蘭主電網，所做之事不僅僅是轟炸民用基礎設施：它威脅到了歐洲乃至全球的核安全。在像烏克蘭這樣的體係中，電網是核電站安全不可或缺的一環：為冷卻、控製、監測與備用係統供電。係統性地切斷電網意味著有意逼近核事故的臨界點。
布爾什丁與多布羅特維爾熱電廠承擔發電，而穿過上述設施的變電站以及750千伏和330千伏架空線路則構成了作戰載體。嚴重破壞或摧毀這些受國際條約密集保護的民用設施，導致核電站卸載運行，被迫降低發電負荷。
應烏克蘭國家電網公司（Ukrenergo）的請求，停電量因此被擴大，相關方麵確信這些額外限製連同對波蘭等國的緊急電力進口，可有助於平衡能源係統。
一個直接參與民用核能全球治理的國家的核安全受到如此攻擊而如此無人問津，這可能嗎？
以規則為基礎的世界最後一片遮羞布掩蓋的不過是戰略懦弱：隻要核風險發生在別處，就是可以容忍的。
媒體關注集中在埃隆馬斯克（Starlink所有者）延遲立場所帶來的所謂優勢，但實際上這恰恰是美國對烏克蘭實施勒索的一部分。正如我們在文章中所解釋的，美國在明知俄方即將對烏克蘭能源係統發動打擊的情況下，故意讓烏克蘭防空暴露無援他們實際也促成了俄軍能以更大火力發動攻擊的條件，並上演了所謂能源停火的鬧劇，好讓莫斯科能在極寒天氣加劇破壞時以最大力量出手。
隨後，他們比預定慢了四年才實施當初承諾於2022年啟動的衛星互聯網限製措施，但這次角色互換。鑒於其他媒體的大量錯誤信息與不加批判的報道被許多意大利媒體當作前線新聞轉載，也許是時候澄清我們在上一篇文章中含蓄提出一些觀察。
再次重申：
俄羅斯並不在Starlink服務覆蓋的國家名單中。那麽為何馬斯克遲遲不關閉該服務？畢竟，烏克蘭在服務覆蓋範圍內。然而，當烏克蘭政府合法地要求埃隆馬斯克在法律上屬於烏克蘭的克裏米亞提供服務時，他拒絕了，阻止烏克蘭人利用其衛星互聯網開展攻勢行動。他在庫爾斯克行動期間也持此立場，影響了行動的成功。同樣需要指出的是，若不加區別地封堵烏克蘭境內被俄方非法占領區上空的所有信號，也同樣會阻止烏克蘭對這些地區實施深度打擊以奪回控製權。
因此，隻有在基輔決定在其全部領土上授權哪些設備，並且隻有Starlink公司信守其公開承諾在四年戰爭期間卻可責地忽視的承諾不向俄羅斯提供服務，白名單的引入才有意義。
對一個表麵報道的事實表示歡欣鼓舞，而對如此明顯的問題保持沉默，非但不是疏忽：而是敘事上的同謀。
（圖：我在烏克蘭貝雷斯廷為本文報道????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
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在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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