How Western Impunity Fuels Russias War on Ukraines Energy Grid
By:Giorgio Provinciali
Live from Ukraine ????????
Dnipro Donald Trumps decoupling of peace and justice has further altered the moral asymmetry of the conflict, restoring to Moscow a sense of impunity that allows it to perpetrate horrendous crimes while brazenly escaping consequences.
In the hours preceding the writing of this article, the Russian Federation has launched massive strikes on the region Im writing from. Throughout the night, explosions of varying magnitude have erupted in Dnipro, and the sky has been constantly torn by the deadly drone of Russian drones targeting five districts. The targets include businesses, residential and administrative buildings, shops, educational centers, apartment buildings, cars, and, above all, energy infrastructure. Russian air forces have struck civilian targets in Kryvyi Rih, Nikopol, Synelnykove, Krynychany, and the Dnipropetrovsk capital.
More generally,Moscow has blanketed 12 regions of Ukraine.
In Odesa, the Russians set fire to a machine shop, destroyed shops, garages, and warehouses, and damaged yet another energy infrastructure facility belonging to the DTek group. In Kirovohrad, they burned a house and the cars parked outside. In Sumy, they attacked the homes of residents of Kirikivka, killing a 68-year-old woman and wounding her 42-year-old son, her 40-year-old daughter-in-law, their two children, ages 7 and 15, as well as a 79-year-old woman and a 54-year-old man. All were civilians. They join the dozens of children massacred by the Russians, which Iwroteabout yesterday. In Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Kropyvnytskyi, explosions reverberated until mid-morning. Despite this being a combined air strike, which involved 396 high-explosive drones and 29 other missiles of various types, the precision of those strikes is appalling. Suffice it to say that in Donetsk, a Russian drone fatally struck three technicians at the Sloviansk power plant who were driving to work.
A combined strike, specifically calculated to cause as much damage as possible to our energy sector,President Zelenskydeclared.
Moscow, however, strikes because it is allowed to.
The sequence of attacks that Alla Perdei and I have been documenting from the field for over 1,450 days is the result of theperception of impunitythat continues to pervade the halls of the Kremlin.
A systemic attack like this, carried out for four years now, can only be halted if at least one of the following conditions is met: if its military cost is unsustainable; if the regime carrying it out is politically isolated; or if there is a credible threat of escalation from the West. Having failed to perceive some of these limits each time he tested them, Vladimir Putin has exceeded them.
In twelve years of war, four on a large-scale, the West has never imposed truly punishing sanctions on Moscow, instead fueling the core business and thus the war machine of a regime that has even been fully reinstated on the international stage, politically, with a red carpet and a pompous parade arranged by its former principal enemy. Rather than strengthening the strategic deterrent of the country that was fighting that regime at a very high cost and on behalf of the entire West, it chose to weaken it with inane operational caveats and the systematic denial of any means to counter it.
During a press conference with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbn, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio feigned shock the day before yesterday,wonderinghow his president is receiving so much criticismdespite aspiring to peace.
Donald Trump is now primarily responsible for the Russian perception of impunity. Constant verbal attacks on NATO, repeated declarations of understanding toward Putin, slanders directed at Zelensky, public delegitimization of American institutions, the imposition of tariffs, and constant threats to historic US allies, along with winks at the worst regimes on earth, have served as a strategic signal to Moscow, which has interpreted Western division as a window of opportunity. This is not a matter of political style but of a transactional approach to war, which Trump has presented as a very high cost to be ended quickly by rewarding the aggressor.
The rhetorical equidistance adopted by Washington constitutes not just a semantic but a strategic shift. A major one.
As Russian dissident Gary Kasparovsaidyesterday, Trump has even put a price on the territories Ukraine has been defending with its own blood for 12 years, turningthe US into abanana republic.
What Rubiocallsanegotiated peaceis a stabilization of aggression. It freezes Russian occupation lines without any deterrence, while guaranteeing that the Russian presence would, if anything, be legalized in Europe through the creation ofafree economic zone in Donbas,which amounts to the normalization of the illicit act.
Kasparovs polemicalassessmentstems from an observation:a superpower that spreads instability reduces its capacity for external deterrence.
Russia continues its indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, aiming to destroy Ukraines energy infrastructure, because it fears no direct escalation, is not subject to truly crippling sanctions, and believes that time is on its side.
In 2014, it occupied Crimea and part of Donbas. In 2022, it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since 2024, it has been bringing Ukraines energy system to its knees. Whenever the cost has not outweighed the benefit, the escalation has continued.
Thedeterrenceso muchdiscussedin Munich these days is therefore a matter of perception, not just material capacity. Specifically, in the war unleashed by Putin, what matters is what Moscow believes Washington is willing to do.
Trump doesnt want to restore legality but to end an issue he considers external to the Western Hemisphere. For Putin, this means being able to increase pressure to secure a favorable ceasefire, knowing that Russias responsibilities are and will be downplayed.
BysayingthatZelensky must seriously sit down at the negotiating table, Trump once again yesterday used gangster-like language to pressure the attacked party into making territorial concessions while the aggressor stands firm.
This isnt pacifism, as Rubio claims. Its aiding and abetting a crime.
The ongoing blackouts severely damaged our houses heating system in Western Ukraine while we were in the Donbas.
Without electricity, the pump couldnt circulate the liquid while the fire was lit. As a result, the system caught fire, and the whole house was at risk of burning. Fortunately, it did not, but the whole system needs to be changed, and the house needs to be restored. Tubes are all bent, walls are blackened by haze, and the heating system doesnt work, requiring an entirely new system.
We are doing our best since Allas parents live there, but theres still a lot to work on here, too, as the people around us are in no better situation.
Were renewing our fundraising campaign and thanking everyone who joins us in helping us restore what Russia is destroying. Even a small donation helps. Well keep you updated on developments.
Thank you all, dear friends ????????
西方的縱容如何助長俄羅斯對烏克蘭能源電網的戰爭
作者：Giorgio Provinciali
翻譯：旺財球球
烏克蘭前線報道????????
第聶伯羅唐納德川普將和平與正義割裂開來，進一步改變了衝突中的道德不對稱，賦予莫斯科一種有罪不罰的錯覺，使其能夠肆無忌憚地實施駭人聽聞的罪行而厚顏無恥地逃避懲罰。
在撰寫本文的數小時前，俄聯邦對我所處地區發動了大規模襲擊。整夜，大小不一的爆炸在第聶伯此起彼伏，俄羅斯無人機致命的嗡鳴聲不斷劃破夜空，襲擊波及五個區。目標包括商業機構、居民和行政建築、商店、教育機構、公寓樓、汽車，尤以能源基礎設施為甚。俄羅斯空軍對克裏維裏赫、尼科波爾、塞涅利尼科韋、克雷尼查內以及第聶伯陀羅斯克首府的民用目標實施了打擊。
總的來說，莫斯科肆虐烏克蘭12個州。
在敖德薩，俄軍放火焚燒了一個機修廠，摧毀了商店、車庫和倉庫，並又一次破壞了屬於DTek集團的另一處能源設施。在基羅沃格勒，他們燒毀了一座房屋及停在外麵的車輛。在蘇梅，他們襲擊了基裏基夫卡居民的住處，致一名68歲婦女被殺，其42歲的兒子、40歲的兒媳、兩名分別為7歲和15歲的孫子，以及一名79歲婦女和一名54歲男子受傷。所有受害者均為平民。俄軍屠殺的幾十名兒童之列又多了2名對此我在昨天已有報道。在文尼察、利沃夫與克羅皮夫尼茨基，爆炸聲一直回蕩到上午中旬。盡管此次為一次聯合空襲，動用了396枚高爆無人機和29枚其它型號導彈，但其打擊的準確性令人發指。僅舉一例，在頓涅茨克，一枚俄製無人機在斯洛維揚斯克電廠對駕車上班的三名技師造成致命襲擊。
這是一次經專門計算的聯合打擊，旨在對我們的能源部門造成最大損害，澤連斯基總統宣稱。
（圖：Alla和我在烏克蘭基輔記錄了這段影像????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
然而，莫斯科之所以發動打擊，是因為它被縱容。
我與阿拉佩爾代在前線記錄的、持續逾1450天的這一連串襲擊，其根源正是彌漫於克裏姆林宮內的有罪不罰感。
像這樣的係統性襲擊，已持續四年，隻有在以下至少一項條件得到滿足時才能被遏止：其軍事成本變得無法承受；實施該行動的政權被政治上孤立；或西方存在可信的升級威脅。普京在每次試探這些界限時都未能感知到部分限製，從而不斷越界。
在十二年的戰爭中，其中四年屬於大規模戰爭，西方從未對莫斯科施以真正懲罰性的製裁，反而助長了該政權的核心經濟亦即其戰爭機器以致該政權甚至在國際舞台上被全麵恢複政治地位，受到它曾經的主要敵國所安排的紅地毯和盛大閱兵等隆重接待。西方非但沒有通過強化付出高昂代價抵抗該政權、為整個西方而戰的國家的戰略威懾來遏製該政權，反而以愚不可及的操作性限製和係統性剝奪任何反製手段的做法，削弱了其能力。
（媒體內容來源：美國國務院）
前天，在與匈牙利總理維克托歐爾班的新聞發布會上，美國國務卿馬爾科魯比奧裝出震驚狀，質疑他的總統盡管旨在追求和平，為何受到如此多的批評。
唐納德川普如今主要要為俄羅斯的有罪不罰感負責。對北約的持續口頭攻擊、對普京屢屢表示理解、對澤連斯基的詆毀、公開使美國機構失去正當性、加征關稅並不斷威脅傳統盟友，以及向地球上最惡劣的政權拋出媚眼，這些都向莫斯科發出了戰略信號：西方的分裂是一扇機會之窗。這不是政治風格問題，而是將戰爭視作交易的手法川普將戰爭描述為一筆高額代價，要通過獎勵侵略方快速結束。
華盛頓采取的言辭上的中立不僅是語義上的轉變，而是重大的戰略轉變。且是重大轉向。
正如俄羅斯持異見人士加裏卡斯帕羅夫昨日所言，特朗普甚至給烏克蘭用自身鮮血捍衛了12年的領土標了價，把美國變成了香蕉共和國。
魯比奧所謂的談判和平實質上是對侵略的穩定化。它在沒有任何威懾的情況下凍結俄羅斯的占領線，同時可能使俄羅斯的存在在歐洲得到某種合法化，比如在頓巴斯設立自由經濟區，這無異於對非法行為的常態化。
卡斯帕羅夫的尖銳評述源自一個觀察：散布不穩定的超級大國會削弱其對外威懾能力。
俄羅斯不斷對烏克蘭民用基礎設施實施無差別轟炸，旨在摧毀烏克蘭的能源係統，因為它不懼怕直接升級，不受真正致命的製裁約束，並且相信時間站在它這一邊。
2014年，它占領了克裏米亞和頓巴斯的一部分。2022年，它對烏克蘭發動了全麵入侵。自2024年以來，它一直在將烏克蘭的能源係統打到瀕臨癱瘓。每當成本沒有超過收益時，升級就會繼續。
（圖：我在撰寫本文前，在第聶伯羅所拍攝了這種照片版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
因此，近日在慕尼黑廣泛討論的威懾更多是一個感知問題，而不僅僅是物質能力的問題。具體到普京發動的戰爭，關鍵在於莫斯科認為華盛頓願意做什麽。
特朗普並不想恢複法律秩序，而是要結束他視為西半球之外的問題。對普京而言，這意味著可以加大施壓以換取有利的停火條件，因為俄羅斯的責任將被淡化現在如此，將來也如此。
昨日，特朗普再次以黑幫式的措辭要求澤連斯基必須認真坐到談判桌前，以此向被攻擊一方施壓，迫使其在侵略者不讓步的情況下做出領土讓步。
這並非魯比奧所稱的和平主義，而是在協助並教唆犯罪。
（圖：我在文中所述俄襲發生後不久在烏克蘭第聶伯羅拍攝的照片????????版權所有，Giorgio Provinciali）
***
持續的停電嚴重損壞了我們在烏克蘭西部的家中的供暖係統，而我們當時就在頓巴斯。
沒有電，點著的爐火無法通過水泵循環熱水。結果，係統起火，整個房子麵臨著燒毀的風險。幸而未被燒毀，但整個係統需要更換，房子也需要修複。管道都是歪的，牆壁被煙霧熏黑，供暖係統無法正常工作，需要徹底更換。
我們正在盡最大努力，因為Alla的父母住在那裏，但這裏還有許多工作要做，周圍的人處境也好不到哪兒去。
我們正在重啟籌款活動，感謝每一位支持我們修複被俄羅斯摧毀一切的朋友。即使是小額捐款也有幫助。我們會及時更新進展。
感謝大家，朋友們。
????????如果你相信我們的工作，請支持我們????????????
在過去的三年裏，我們一直在烏克蘭戰爭的各個前線進行報道
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