[Elliott Wave Theory] Neely Extension Rule

個人認為extension rule是Neely對EWT的重要補充,能夠更有效劃分wave section和根據已有structure預判最可能的一些走法.最近又重看了和extension rule相關的一些章節,發現之前的一些記憶和理解有誤.在此嚐試用簡單的不等式進行歸納.

1. 1st Wave Extension

"When the first wave extends, wave-3 should complete no further away than 61.8% above (or below if ther market is trending down) from the end of wave-1."

W1 > W3 > W5; (0.618 x W1) + W1_end >= W3_end

* "Wave-2 cannot retrace much more than 38.2% of wave-1. Wave-2 will not likely be a Zigzag pattern.". More likely to be more complex than wave-4.

2. 3rd Wave Extension

"This is the most likely wave in a sequence to extend."

W3 > 1.618 x max(W1, W5)

3. 5th Wave Extension

"Wave-5 should be at least equal to the price distance from the beginning of wave-1 (point "0") through the end of wave 3 added to the end of wave-4..."

W1 < W3 < W5; W(0-3) + W4_end <= W5 <= (2.618 x W(0-3)) + W3_end

* "Frequently wave-4 will retrace as much as 50-61.8% of wave-3 when the 5th wave is the extension.". More likely to be more complex than wave-2.

4. Double extension ("extreme infrequency")

1.618 x W1 < W3; 1.618 x W3 < W5