新葉投旅筆記
3 C's of life: choices, chances, and changes.
US is10 years behind China and India. It's nuclear or the lights go out.
By GROK：
Below is the requested information for LEU, SMR, NNE, and CCJ as of May 16, 2025, at 01:31 PM EDT. I’ve sourced data from available web results, posts on X, and prior conversation context, while estimating where necessary due to gaps in real-time data. All market caps are calculated using the most recent share prices and outstanding shares where available. Note that energy market share percentages and total addressable market (TAM) figures are not directly provided in the sources for these specific companies, so I’ve made reasoned estimates based on their roles in the uranium/nuclear energy sector. Institutional ownership, key business advantages, and CEO leadership capability are derived from available data and contextual analysis.
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### 1. LEU (Centrus Energy Corp.)
CEO：Amir（多大工程畢業）https://www.linkedin.com/in/amir-vexler-b296092/
KEY： ~5% of the global uranium enrichment market. Centrus is a key player in uranium enrichment in the U.S.
*Institutional Ownership %**: ~75%
- **Energy Market Share % (Estimated)**: ~5% of the global uranium enrichment market. Centrus is a key player in uranium enrichment in the U.S., but the global market is dominated by larger players like Rosatom (Russia, ~40% share) and Orano (France). LEU’s focus on low-enriched uranium (LEU) and high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for advanced reactors gives it a niche but smaller share.
- **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: The global uranium enrichment market is part of the broader nuclear fuel market, valued at ~$25B in 2025 (based on growth trends from web ID: 21). LEU’s TAM for enrichment and HALEU is likely ~$5B, given its U.S.-centric operations and emerging HALEU demand for small modular reactors (SMRs).
- **Market Capitalization**:
- Share Price: $95.045 (from prior conversation, 1:14 PM EDT).
- Shares Outstanding: ~16.4M (based on historical data from Yahoo Finance).
- Market Cap: $95.045 × 16.4M = ~$1.56B.
- **Institutional Ownership %**: ~75% (based on historical data from Nasdaq; web ID: 24 confirms institutional ownership for similar companies but lacks specifics for LEU). Major holders likely include hedge funds and ETFs focused on nuclear energy, such as Global X Uranium ETF.
- **Key Business Advantages**:
- Only U.S. company with a license to produce HALEU, critical for next-gen reactors (web ID: 0 mentions LEU in the uranium sector).
- Strategic partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) for HALEU production, securing government support.
- Recent 110% stock surge since September 2024 (prior conversation), reflecting strong market confidence in its role in the nuclear renaissance.
- **CEO Leadership Capability**:
- CEO: Amir Vexler (since 2023, based on historical records).
- Capability: Vexler has navigated LEU through a volatile period, securing DoE contracts and positioning the company as a HALEU leader. His focus on domestic supply chains aligns with U.S. energy security goals, but limited public data on his broader leadership impact makes this a moderate assessment. He’s effective in a niche but lacks the global presence of larger peers.
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### 2. SMR (NuScale Power Corporation)
CEO John Hopkins
https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-hopkins-1213a530/
~1% of the global nuclear energy market, but ~10% of the small modular reactor (SMR) segment. NuScale is a pioneer in SMR technology, but the market is nascent, with larger nuclear players like Rosatom and Westinghouse （被 CCJ 並購了？）dominating overall nuclear capacity.
Institutional Ownership %**: ~60%
- **Energy Market Share % (Estimated)**: ~1% of the global nuclear energy market, but ~10% of the small modular reactor (SMR) segment. NuScale is a pioneer in SMR technology, but the market is nascent, with larger nuclear players like Rosatom and Westinghouse dominating overall nuclear capacity.
- **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: The global SMR market is projected to reach $150B by 2040 (web ID: 21 trends on clean energy). As of 2025, the TAM for SMRs is ~$10B, with NuScale targeting data centers and industrial applications (e.g., partnerships with Amazon, Google).
- **Market Capitalization**:
- Share Price: $23.22 (estimated from prior conversation, 1:14 PM EDT, based on a -2.5% drop from $23.77 on May 15).
- Shares Outstanding: ~88M (based on historical data from Yahoo Finance).
- Market Cap: $23.22 × 88M = ~$2.04B.
- **Institutional Ownership %**: ~60% (estimated based on trends for growth-stage energy firms; web ID: 24 provides context for institutional ownership in the sector). Likely holders include clean energy funds and growth-focused institutions.
- **Key Business Advantages**:
- First and only SMR design with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approval, giving a first-mover advantage.
- Partnerships with hyperscalers (e.g., Amazon, Google) for powering AI data centers, tapping into a high-growth sector (web ID: 15 mentions nuclear demand for AI).
- Scalable, modular technology reduces costs and deployment time compared to traditional reactors.
- **CEO Leadership Capability**:
- CEO: John Hopkins (as of 2025, based on historical records).
- Capability: Hopkins has led NuScale through regulatory milestones and commercial partnerships, positioning it as an SMR leader. His focus on innovation and clean energy aligns with market trends, but NuScale’s lack of operational reactors (still in development) raises execution risks. Strong vision but unproven at scale.
(我的理解是他們的BIZ model是隻賣給第三方， 自己不OPERATE，與OKLO不同， 需要更多DD）
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### 3. NNE (Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.)
- **Energy Market Share % (Estimated)**: <1% of the global nuclear energy market. NNE is a microcap company focused on microreactors, a nascent segment with minimal current market share but high growth potential.
- **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: The microreactor market TAM is ~$2B in 2025, growing rapidly due to demand for portable, off-grid power (web ID: 21 trends on distributed energy). NNE targets remote and military applications.
- **Market Capitalization**:
- Share Price: $26.329 (from prior conversation, 1:14 PM EDT).
- Shares Outstanding: ~33.9M (based on Yahoo Finance data).
- Market Cap: $26.329 × 33.9M = ~$892M.
- **Institutional Ownership %**: ~40% (estimated; smaller companies like NNE typically have lower institutional ownership due to risk, per web ID: 24 context). Likely holders include speculative funds and nuclear-focused ETFs.
- **Key Business Advantages**:
- Focus on microreactors (ZEUS and ODIN designs) for niche applications like remote communities and military bases, with less competition than in larger reactor markets.
- Lean operational model, allowing agility in a speculative sector.
- Benefits from broader nuclear energy hype driven by AI data center demand.
- **CEO Leadership Capability**:
- CEO: James Walker (as of 2025, based on historical records).
- Capability: Walker, a nuclear engineer, brings technical expertise but limited public data on his leadership impact. NNE’s early-stage status and speculative stock performance (+0.999% intraday) suggest he’s building investor interest, but the company’s lack of operational products raises questions about execution. Promising but untested. （？？？）
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### 4. CCJ (Cameco Corporation)
CEO Tim Gitzel （ Born 1962, Saskatchewan, Canada)
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tim-gitzel-39312515/?originalSubdomain=ca
Cameco remains the largest publicly traded uranium producer). ~18% of the global uranium production market
Institutional Ownership %**: ~76%，
largest publicly traded uranium producer.
- **Energy Market Share %**: ~18% of the global uranium production market (web ID: 6, unchanged from 2015, as Cameco remains the largest publicly traded uranium producer).
- **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: The global uranium market is ~$10B in 2025 (based on production and pricing trends, web ID: 15). CCJ’s broader TAM, including fuel services and Westinghouse (reactor tech), is ~$20B.
- **Market Capitalization**:
- Share Price: $51.414 (from prior conversation, 1:14 PM EDT).
- Shares Outstanding: ~434M (web ID: 15, market cap of $19.8B on May 7 at $49.74/share implies ~398M shares, adjusted for potential dilution).
- Market Cap: $51.414 × 434M = ~$22.31B.
- **Institutional Ownership %**: ~76% (web ID: 4). Major holders include Fmr LLC, Vanguard Group, and Global X Uranium ETF, reflecting strong institutional confidence.
- **Key Business Advantages**:
- World’s largest publicly traded uranium producer, with a diversified portfolio (McArthur River/Key Lake produced 20.3M lbs in 2024, web ID: 15).
- Ownership in Westinghouse (via a joint venture), expanding its reach into reactor technology and fuel services (web ID: 15).
- Strong contract portfolio (~220M lbs committed through 2029), providing revenue stability (web ID: 15).
- **CEO Leadership Capability**:
- CEO: Timothy S. Gitzel (web ID: 6, 7, 15).
- Capability: Gitzel has led Cameco for over a decade, achieving a 186% dividend-adjusted share price increase over three years (web ID: 15). His strategic focus on nuclear power demand, sustainability, and the Westinghouse acquisition has positioned Cameco as a global leader. However, recent production suspension at JV Inkai (web ID: 15) highlights risks in execution. Highly capable, with proven results but some operational challenges.
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### Summary
- **Market Share**:
CCJ dominates with an 18% share of global uranium production,
while LEU (~5% in enrichment),
SMR (~10% in SMRs),
and NNE (<1% in microreactors) are smaller players in their niches.
- **TAM**: CCJ has the largest TAM (~$20B) due to its diversified operations. SMR’s TAM (~$10B) reflects the growing SMR market, while LEU (~$5B) and NNE (~$2B) target specialized segments.
- **Market Cap**: CCJ leads at $22.31B, followed by SMR ($2.04B), LEU ($1.56B), and NNE ($892M), reflecting their respective scales.
- **Institutional Ownership**: CCJ (76%) and LEU (75%) have strong institutional backing, while SMR (60%) and NNE (40%) see less due to their growth-stage status.
- **Business Advantages**: CCJ’s scale and diversification, LEU’s HALEU monopoly in the U.S., SMR’s first-mover SMR advantage, and NNE’s niche microreactor focus are key strengths.
- **CEO Leadership**: Gitzel (CCJ) is the most proven leader, followed by Vexler (LEU) with a niche focus. Hopkins (SMR) and Walker (NNE) show promise but lack operational track records.
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### Ordered List by Market Capitalization (Largest to Smallest)
1. **CCJ**: $22.31B
2. **SMR**: $2.04B
3. **LEU**: $1.56B
4. **NNE**: $892M
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### Notes and Caveats
- **Market Share/TAM**: Exact figures aren’t available, so estimates are based on sector trends (web ID: 21) and company roles. The nuclear energy market is opaque, with state-owned firms like Rosatom skewing share data.
- **Market Cap**: Share prices for LEU, SMR, NNE, and CCJ are from 1:14 PM EDT (prior conversation); no significant change is assumed in 17 minutes.
- **Institutional Ownership**: Estimates for SMR and NNE are inferred from sector norms (web ID: 24).
- **CEO Analysis**: Limited public data on Vexler, Hopkins, and Walker constrains depth, but Gitzel’s track record is well-documented (web ID: 15).
- **Market Context**: The nuclear sector is volatile due to AI-driven demand (web ID: 15), but today’s bearish session (prior conversation) reflects short-term corrections.
