Ray Dalio picked an interesting week to trash bitcoin.
The Bridgewater Associates founder said on thepopular All-In Podcaston Tuesday that investors should stop comparing bitcoin to gold, arguing that the largest cryptocurrency lacks central bank support, has no privacy, and faces long-term threats from quantum computing.
The timing undermined the thesis, however. On the day Dalio made those comments, gold dropped $168 to $5,128, a 3% decline, while bitcoin fell just 0.7% to $68,700. Five days into the U.S.-Iran war, the asset Dalio prefers was getting hit harder by exactly the kind of crisis he says its supposed to protect against.
The decoupling isnt new. Bitcoin and gold moved together from July through early October, until the broader crypto crash in October wiped out $20 billion in leveraged positions. Since then the two assets have gone in opposite directions. Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October peak. Gold rallied 30% to over $5,100 in the same period.
Gold spiked on Saturdays initial strikes, then gave back those gains as the conflict widened and oil disruption became the dominant concern. Bitcoin sold off on Saturday, bounced on Sunday after Iran supreme leader Khameneis death, got rejected at $70,000 on Tuesday, and has since settled in the mid-$67,000s.
That shows neither asset has fully operated as a safe haven this week. Both have been volatile. Bitcoin has just been less volatile, which isnt the outcome Dalios framework predicts.
Dalios specific criticisms arent new either. He flagged bitcoins transparency, noting that any transaction can be monitored and directly, perhaps, controlled. He questioned whether central banks would ever accumulate an asset that runs on a public ledger. And he raised quantum computing as a longer-term existential risk.
Hes not entirely bearish. Dalio holds roughly 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin for diversification and recommended a15% allocation to bitcoin or goldin July, calling it the best return-to-risk ratio given Americas debt trajectory.
Dalio warned last month that the World Order led by the U.S. had broken down and that investors needed to rethink how they protect wealth. Whether gold is still the only prescription is the part the market is actively debating, and this weeks price action hasnt made his case any easier to make.