Buy protection when you can, not when you must.

Buy protection when you can, not when you must

That's what every risk manager preaches.

Yet here we are, SP puts at multi-year lows, and nobody wants them.

Classic herd behaviour.

Markets are ripping. VIX is sleepwalking. Everyone's forgotten 2022 even happened.

But here's the thing about cheap insurance: it's only cheap when the house isn't on fire.

Right now, 95% SP puts are trading at levels we haven't seen for a while.

Meanwhile, the setup is getting spicy, with Trump threatening 30% tariffs on the EU and to remove Powell.

The SP is trading at all-time highs, so a pullback would be totally normal. Healthy even.

But try explaining that to your unhedged portfolio when it happens.

Warren Buffett once said: "Be fearful when others are greedy."

Well, greed's at 100. Fear's at 0. And protection is not expensive by historical standards.

So here's my question:

When disaster insurance is this cheap, why is nobody buying?

Are you hedging at these levels, or riding the wave naked?