對大家拿的影響

Although the UK’s internal constitutional issues may seem distant, they have direct implications for Canada because of:

• deep economic links

• shared constitutional traditions

• the Commonwealth

• immigration flows

• security cooperation (Five Eyes)

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A. UK trade certainty affects Canadian exporters/investors

Canada-UK trade runs through the Canada-UK Trade Continuity Agreement (TCA) until a full FTA is finalized.
If UK devolution trends lead to:

• Scottish independence movement gaining momentum

• Northern Ireland instability

• different regulatory regimes across UK nations

→ this increases market fragmentation risk for Canadian companies (energy, agriculture, manufacturing, finance).

B. Diverging standards

Scotland and Wales already push for different regulations (environmental, food standards).
Divergence complicates:

• exporting goods (food, chemicals, energy)

• regulatory compliance

• logistics and supply-chain planning

Canadian exporters may face multiple UK-level compliance zones, instead of one.

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Canada is a major investor in the UK, especially through:

• Pension funds (CPP Investments, Ontario Teachers’, OMERS)

• Banks (RBC’s acquisition of HSBC Canada → HSBC’s UK footprint)

Devolution risks that matter for investors:

• Political uncertainty → fluctuating currency and investment risk

• Divergent economic policies among UK nations

• Differential tax or land-use regimes

• Potential independence referendums causing volatility

For institutional investors, Scotland’s constitutional future is especially relevant because Edinburgh is a major financial center.