HIGH周刊

評點大千股壇,馳騁股市風雲
正文

HIG:垂死掙紮時的忽悠?!

(2008-12-06 08:59:28) 下一個

HIG:垂死掙紮前的忽悠?!
來源: HIGH周刊08-12-06 07:44:33
   
(HIGH周刊周末特稿)

周五,在11月非農就業數據創下1974年以來最糟糕記錄的背景下(November Nonfarm payroll employment fell 533,000, the biggest loss since 1974 and well above the consensus of 335,000. The unemployment rate rose from 6.5% to 6.7%, the highest since 1993.),HIG提升其08財年的利潤,從4.36到4.7-4.9的水平,導致其股價翻番,更導致整個保險板塊以及金融板塊的領漲帶領大盤從技術支撐位8100點(SP500 818點)絕地反攻,大漲250多點收市。

December 5, 2008 8:37 AM EST
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: HIG) raises its FY08 EPS view to $4.70-$4.90, versus the consensus of $4.36.

HIG除了提升其利潤,還報告說有充足的現金,9.30盈餘超130億,截止11.30公司擁有超過120億美金的現金(含短期投資和債券);對於其超過900億美元的投資組合長期看很有信心;人壽險部門到年底也有足夠的現金,即使應付更為惡化的市場環境。

• its operating businesses are performing well, particularly in light of the challenging markets
• it is well capitalized and has ample liquidity. Hartford's statutory surplus exceeded $13 billion as of September 30, 2008 and it holds more than $12 billion in cash, short-term investments and Treasuries, as of November 30, 2008
• the capital outlook for its life operations through year-end indicates more than sufficient capital in current market conditions, and even assuming significant additional market deterioration
• it is confident in the long-term economic value of our almost $90 billion investment portfolio

我們來回顧一下HIG今年以來的曆史:

年初公布去年Q4的季報,EPS2.66;四月公布今年Q1季報,EPS2.51,當時預計08財年9.2-9.5,比上次的guidance低了(注意四月之前的三月,股市剛剛創下11500的新低);七月公布Q2季報,EPS2.22,預計不變,但是多了一個假設的前提,到了十月份Q3季報之前的10月6號,HIG在宣布接受Allianz的25億美金投資的新聞中預警了Q3的季報(注意,沒有單獨發預警報告,放在這個消息之後,說明管理層的煞費苦心),其中預警說(Hartford Financial expects a net loss for the third quarter in the range of $8.50 to $8.80 per share, including net realized capital losses in the range of $7.05 to $7.25 per share, or approximately $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion),每股loss8.5到8.8,淨損失(realized)每股7.05到7.25元,絕大部分因為投資financial板塊造成的損失!

October 6, 2008 7:17 AM EDTThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE: HIG) announced a binding agreement with Allianz SE, which provides for a $2.5 billion capital investment.

Allianz will purchase, at $31 per share, $750 million of preferred shares convertible to common stock after receipt of applicable approvals, and $1.75 billion of 10% junior subordinated debentures. The debentures are callable by The Hartford at par beginning ten years after issuance.

Allianz SE will also receive warrants which entitle it to purchase $1.75 billion of common stock at an exercise price of $25.32 per share, subject to shareholder approvals. The warrants expire in seven years.

Hartford Financial expects a net loss for the third quarter in the range of $8.50 to $8.80 per share, including net realized capital losses in the range of $7.05 to $7.25 per share, or approximately $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion. The vast majority of the realized capital losses are impairments on The Hartford's investment portfolio. About 75 percent of the impairments are related to investments in the financial services sector, which were negatively affected by recent market turmoil.

可是10.29Q3的季報卻是:EPS僅負1.4,也就是說HIG在其他業務上創造了7.1到7.4的利潤!曆史上HIG的同期業務從來都沒有取得過這樣的業績!而且短短20多天,HIG前後的數據差別簡直就是天上人間,這樣的公司除了做假的嫌疑,你是在找不到任何的理由了。

以下是今年以來的所有季報記錄:

January 24, 2008 4:10 PM EST Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) reported Q4 EPS of $2.66, 17 cents better than the analyst estimate of $2.49.

April 28, 2008 4:11 PM EDT
Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) reports Q1 EPS of $2.51, 5 cents better than the analyst estimate of $2.46.

Sees FY08 core EPS of $9.20-$9.50, versus prior guidance of $9.80-$10.20, versus the consensus of $9.81.


July 28, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) reports Q2 EPS of $2.22, 12 cents better than the analyst estimate of $2.10.

Based on the assumptions below, The Hartford currently expects 2008 core earnings per diluted share to be between $9.20 and $9.50. This range excludes any effect from the company’s planned third quarter DAC unlock and remains unchanged from the guidance range established on April 28, 2008. (FY EPS consensus is $9.04)

October 29, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
Hartford Financial Services (NYSE: HIG) reports Q3 loss of $1.40
, versus the analyst estimate of ($1.54).
Sees FY08 EPS $4.30 to $4.50 versus consensus of $5.25.

華爾街在10月初就有謠言,HIG會破產(October 3, 2008 10:27 AM Senator Harry Reid Backtracks On 'Bankruptcy' Comments (MET, HIG)),導致其股價一路下跌。這個謠言一直陰蠻不散,導致其股價節節新低,甚至到了6元多,昨日提升利潤的消息,使得MM有機會在前期的重大損失通過一天翻倍拉升盈利。在金融危機的背景下,華爾街的貪婪和黑暗比以往任何時候更甚!

HIG,一個已經遭受重創的保險公司,靠什麽去支撐4.7-4.9的EPS?沒有可能!唯一的可能解釋,就是垂死前的掙紮,為了某些人(集團)的利益!

[ 打印 ]
閱讀 ()評論 (0)
評論
目前還沒有任何評論
登錄後才可評論.