Bailout計劃與市場的辯證關係

bailout計劃與市場的辯證關係
		來源: HIGH周刊 於 08-09-27 09:45:11

上周六，《HIGH周刊》推出周末特稿“政府救市的另類思考：資本博弈的催生物”，指出bailout推出的時機是為了配合指數基金九月OE的全力突圍。一周來國會兩黨圍繞這個計劃可謂渾身解數，辯論不已：各種變形方案也應運而生。正如HIGH周刊在特稿中指出的一樣，國會的政客精英們不會讓這麽一個當初僅僅兩頁半文字的催生物輕易通過的。這其實也凸現了美國政治中的民主和自由，你總統再呼籲再講話，財長再發誓再下跪都不可能隨心所欲，重大法案必須要經過參眾兩院的投票通過。 這個計劃最後即使通過，也很有可能深深刻上了國會精英們的智慧烙印，不能低估他們的政治智慧和在關鍵時刻為美國謀取最大的政經利益的動機。救市不隻是挽救華爾街，更重要的是挽救美國的整體經濟，這恐怕也是國會爭議的焦點，所以高總相信，雖然這個bailout計劃的出台可能隻是當初一部分資本利益集團的一己私利，但是一旦到達國會這樣的法律層麵，美國的國家機器一旦開動，最後一定會有一樣達成協議的文件通過。隻是這樣一個計劃可能已經完全不是財長Paulson當初所要求的東西了。 市場下周怎麽走？沒有這個bailout還會不會一日暴跌？有了這個bailout計劃又會不會一日暴漲？高總認為恐怕都不會了。從九月的情形還是可以看出主力的思路仍然希望有一個年終行情的rally的，所以就這個bailout的計劃（不管出不出台：出台可以解讀為利好，不出台可以解讀為有希望－－從某種意義上說，討論持續下去恐怕是目前的市場主力所最希望的）而言，目前承載了太多的意義。從某種程度上說，將這個bailout計劃上升到國會層麵的討論，Paulson已經贏了，所以即使下跪也是Paulson內心作為一種勝利者姿態的真情流露。 今年的行情如果真的rally之後，明年恐怕就很危險了，該還的帳恐怕都得要還回去的，新低，崩盤之類的考慮就留給明年吧。

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122257682963083173.html
SEPTEMBER 28, 2008, 9:08 A.M. ET

Lawmakers Reach Tentative Bailout Deal

Those present said the bailout plan still needs to be drafted in its final form, a process staff members were expected to continue throughout the night in what one aide called a "marathon drafting session" in Ms. Pelosi's office just off the rotunda in the Capitol building. A formal announcement is scheduled for some time Sunday, though an exact time and location were not immediately available.

A summary of the tentative agreement released by Ms. Pelosi's office said the plan "gives taxpayers an ownership stake and profit-making opportunities with participating companies; puts taxpayers first in line to recover assets if a participating company fails; (and) guarantees taxpayers are repaid in full -- if other protections have not actually produced a profit."

Additionally, the summary said the legislation will expand the range of firms that can sell troubled assets to the government to include pension plans, local governments and community banks serving "low- and middle-income families."

A House Democratic aide said the government would be able to receive warrants it could hold until maturity from financial firms on assets received either through auctions or through direct purchases.

The summary also said the legislation would institute new executive-compensation requirements for participating companies, including "no multi million dollar golden parachutes," limits on compensation generally, and the ability to recover "bonuses paid based on promised gains that later turn out to be false or inaccurate."