這是一份稍稍遲來的榮譽，因為本周高總編實在分身乏術。不過今天仍然是周末最後一天，所以這個獎項今晚頒出應該不是太遲。
GOOG本周開盤後連續兩天大的向下振蕩，即在情理之中，又頗出人意外。因為就在上周末，GOOG剛剛被broker將價格調升到500。可是也幾乎就在同時，一諾千金在22日卻間接指出GOOG在430左右見頂（華爾街大混混更是直接幫一諾千金喊出了430是頂）。
當時帖子發出之後，立即受到大千眾將鋪天蓋地的“襲擊”：GOOG不能short！更有甚者，某大千人喊出賣鍋軋鐵買GOOG的豪言壯語。可是市場再一次驗證一諾千金入木三分的非凡眼光以及不同凡響的過人魄力：28，29兩天之內GOOG飛流直下，從430到395！凸現一諾千金其名乃是的深厚FATA功底！
因此，HIGH周刊決定將本周最佳操盤手的榮譽再次授予無可爭議的大千高手－一諾千金！
Copyright ©2005 HIGH周刊 All rights reserved
 |
| 今日關注：Goog及如何操作
基本麵分析:
Valuation
GOOG， internet search leader gets its target mostly at $450 and I acknowledge that the price target is intrinsically very high -- as is the implied $125Bish market cap which is TWX plus DIS. My EV/EBITDA analysis generates a $429 price target, while my P/E analysis generates a $436 price target.
EV/EBITDA: apply a 25X multiple to my 2007 EBITDA estimate of $5.3B ($15.98 per share) to reach a $429 target price, adjusting for $10.1B ($30.00 per share) in cash. My target multiple is largely driven off of growth assumptions, and I are assuming a 2007-2010 compound EBITDA growth of approximately 25%. GOOG's trading history is relatively limited, but its current 2005 EBITDA multiple is 33X, and I am applying to GOOG highest multiple among the Net leaders (vs. 23X for EBAY and 21X for YHOO), which is consistent with our view that GOOG has the highest sustainable growth rate among these companies (vs. 23% for EBAY and YHOO).
I am assuming multiple contraction as GOOG's bottom-line growth decelerates over time. I note that Google's P/E multiple has ranged from 93X to 56X with a mean of 74X in the past nearly one year.
Risks
High Risk rating on GOOG reflects the highly competitive landscape the
company faces and the intrinsically high valuation multiples of growth stocks, especially in the Internet sector. These risks are somewhat offset by the company's strong balance sheet ($7.6B in cash) and by the liquidity of its shares. Note that the investment risks laid out below may impede the stock from reaching the target price. Specific risks are: 1) Very significant competition from Internet-related companies like Yahoo! and Microsoft; 2) Limited track record and limited visibility; 3) Potential exposure to concerns over aggressive industry online advertising practices; and 4) Very strong Bullish sentiment.
狗狗目前交易在416元，離430僅14元之交。
技術麵分析：
技術麵較簡單：$150跳空後到$200在跳空，後$300跳空到$350。基本上是一個60度GANN上升，屬於少見的(象當年的AMZN OR QCOM) 特大牛股。強勢技術：三次跳空呈強拉之勢，乖離區沿1區震蕩。上升趨勢義無反顧。弱勢技術：$300跳空後交易量明顯比$200跳空低。故$300跳空為最後一跳。
由此看來，狗狗屬技術上強弩之末。
大勢與板塊配合分析：大勢很強，是否是一個真正的牛市開始，還言時過早。不過，那斯2300是可期的。姑且不論經濟麵如何，年底至少是強勢。下周大勢拉回調整概率極大。網路正如2000年一樣，轟轟烈烈，但競爭也更加激烈。可望強勢股如YHOO， AMZN， EBAY任各領風騷。狗狗也不例外。
近期走勢(1-4周) ：狗狗將進入最後的瘋狂，430指日可待。至於450有可能，500恐怕是有些天方夜譚。明日應拉回調整。下周繼續向上。明年初將會瘋狂下跌。
中期走勢(3-6月) ：先很快回到400，然後跌到350。如果當時市場不看好，300極有可能。
長期走勢(1-2年) ：300震蕩，250-350是震蕩區。
戰略戰術：波段交易是首選，不能作長期持有，也不能長期看空。
建議：沒有跳空經驗的不要碰。我會看到狗狗一日跳空下跌$50。明日若高開，可選日衝消賣空。平開，遠離，低開，先看多，然後再賣空。明日會在420到410間大副波動。可能會收在413前後。
結論：年底看多風險40%，看空風險60%。年外看多風險80%，看空風險20%。膽大的現在可以買長期看空期權了。
| | | | |
|
| 回複：今日關注：Goog及如何操作 | | |
| 文章來源: 華爾街大混混 於 2005-11-22 22:43:41 | |
|
|
|
| 請問你的目標價是430嗎？ |
|
