《本周最佳操盤手－一諾千金》 10.30.2005

一諾千金，大千的一個嶄新ID。本來， HIGH榜是特意準備將這個稱號留給未來的一位大千名人的，現在可以說已經橫空出世。一諾千金出道以後，本周留下兩篇令人歎服的操盤計劃，使得這個新ID一下子跨入HIGH榜視野。

PPDI，因為FDA的否決，盤後大跌，在早盤的分析中，一諾千金通過長篇分析，明確指出這是一個超跌反彈機會，並且明確告知開盤價格55以下買入，伺機59左右拋出：結果當天的實際表明20分鍾即可實現既定目標：精準，迅速！充分體現了一個職業操盤手的眼光！

如果PPDI給人以偶然的巧合，那麽接著公布報表的MSTR，則讓我們不得不佩服一諾千金的深厚內功。由於MISS，盤後也是大跌。在早盤，一諾千金再次拋出一份對於MSTR的操盤計劃書，同樣是大跌，但是這次一諾千金的操盤方案卻是任何反彈都是賣空的上上策，而且指出了69的賣空位置，也是非常精準。

連續兩個計劃，凸現一諾千金的FA TA功底。本周雖然有很多不錯的操盤，但是HIGH周刊仍然覺得一諾千金獲得本周最佳操盤手當之無愧！

HIGH周刊 ©2005 Copyright



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今日關注：MSTR及如何操作

　　　　　　 一諾千金 於 2005-10-28 06:11:35



今日關注：MSTR及如何操作

MSTR Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.91 per share, $0.13 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.04 (consensus ranges from $0.84-$1.30); revenues rose 8.6% year/year to $65.8 mln vs the $66.2 mln consensus.

Analysts having mixed feelings about MSTR...JMP reits Market Outperform and lowers its target to $85 from $93. However, excluding an unexpected tax expense associated with cash repatriation, MicroStrategy would have posted EPS of $1.12, handily beating the consensus. Given the reason for the miss and firm's view that MicroStrategy has some of the best industrial strength business intelligence products, the firm would be buyers of the stock.... Deutsche Bank is more cautious, saying that while MSTR grew current bookings sequentially (5%), deferred revs declined $2.3m and year-over-year bookings growth rates are at the lowest level since 1Q03. In firm's view, the co's aggressive pricing tactics (licensing audits in 2004 and rigid pricing on incremental capacity expansion since 2004) have inflated past results and alienated customers. Moreover, firm believes MSTR will be challenged to post meaningful revenue growth off 2H04 comparisons and 2005 results. Firm maintains a Sell and $48 tgt.


消息後的反應：這消息出來後，MSTR一度大跌10元，後張家支撐到跌5。66。


基本麵研究：

MSTR 是一個少有的軟件傑出公司，其微戰略軟件涉及行業廣泛。花兒街早對其高看。在我記憶中，MSTR連續9個季度達20%以上預期。這是第一個沒達預期。而且此季度可能表明公司在不得已的情況下，MISS很多。

由此看來，盤前並不是恐慌性賣盤，之所以機構會拉回，那可能是他們的籌碼太多，不能象DRIV一樣自由下跌。

而且長期來看，雖然其股價沒高估，但上升的空間也不大，一來行業競爭激烈，二來其不能確定下季度是不是一樣保持高速發展。我相信70是合理的價格。

技術麵分析：超作上不是跳空反彈型。可能開盤會有大量拋盤，然後會被強行拉升。

大勢與板塊配合分析：大盤最近走勢詭秘，忽上忽下，表明大的動作即將開始。軟件板塊行業任然不見太大起色。MSTR應該也不可能有太大的作為。


建議：開盤於69-68賣空，短線可於62-63 買回。然後買進到70附近賣出。中線應於70觀望，如70附近震蕩，可看下降到60。


結論：賣空是上上策。任何反彈都可以以賣空為主。

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今日關注：PPDI及如何操作

文章來源: 一諾千金 於 2005-10-27 06:09:07



今日關注：PPDI及如何操作
WILMINGTON, N.C., Oct. 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PPD, Inc. (Nasdaq: PPDI - News) today announced that ALZA Corporation issued a press release reporting that it has received a not approvable letter from the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on their new drug application for dapoxetine hydrochloride, an investigational compound for the treatment of premature ejaculation (PE). In its release, ALZA stated that it plans to address questions raised in the FDA letter and continue the global development program.

ALZA Corporation further stated that it believes that dapoxetine provides important benefits for men who suffer from PE. PE is a distinct medical condition that has been recognized by the American Urological Association (AUA), the American Psychiatric Association (APA) and the World Health Organization (WHO). PE can have a significant impact on many aspects of a man's life, including his and his partner's sexual satisfaction, the ability to build and maintain relationships, and a general sense of confidence. Currently, there are no drugs approved by the FDA for the treatment of PE. Traditional methods of PE treatment rely heavily on behavioral therapy and/or off-label use of older drugs that are approved for other conditions, all of which yield limited success.

這消息出來後，J&J沒有大跌，倒是PPDI跌了8。13%盤前。

PPDI 是一個極為出色的合同藥品檢驗公司，而此ALZA之試驗費用可能隻占3%不到。況且J&J也不願意停止PE試驗。下一步可能是需要更多的開支。由此看來，PPDI 應該是或可能得到更多的J&J的合同。可以說PPDI至少不會太多受損。

由此看來，盤前的恐慌拋賣是莊稼的伎倆。他們會在此大舉買進，然後上拉。

而且長期來看，PPDI的估價應該在100元左右。

從趨勢上來看，張家們不太可能讓PPDI跌破第一個缺口。

超作上應屬跳空反彈型。

建議：開盤於54-55買進，短線可於58-59出貨。中線應於60觀望，如果60附近震蕩，可看65到70。不過要有生技板塊強勢支撐。而目前此板塊教弱。

結論：59出獲是上上策。53是止損位。贏虧比是5：1。