中國PX抗爭事件：經濟學人和我的看法

中國一年消耗PX 達1600萬噸，其中過半需要進口。進口的PX在長途運輸過程中（輪船，火車， 卡車）安全問題大家擔心過，討論過沒有？ 原油油輪都泄漏過，誰能保證運輸PX的輪船，火車， 卡車不泄漏啊？不建PX廠就要多進口，道理很簡單。拉著易燃有毒的進口PX在全中國的路上跑，比起建幾個PX廠哪個更危險？

 

PX易燃和有毒，BTX（benzene, toluene, xylene)中的B和T就不是易燃和有毒嗎？ 易燃和有毒的化學品加上生產過程可能不安全的化學品（包括煤炭， 麵粉，煙花爆竹， 電池，太陽能電池板）有多少種，全都不生產，中國的經濟靠什麽？ 核電廠的安全事故可能造成的後果，比起PX嚴重多了。國外抗爭核電建廠的事件比較常見，抗爭PX的還沒有看到報道。國外這種抗爭， 叫做“不要建在我的後院"抗爭（NIMBY， Not In My Back Yard).  

 

PX抗爭的根源是民眾對企業和公權力黑箱作業和管理能力的不信任。同樣的不信任問題也出現在霧霾，毒奶粉，毒大米，地溝油和轉基因上。  不盡快解決不信任的根源，以後抗爭會擴大化和非理性化，連建乙烯廠， 氨水廠和垃圾處理廠都難了。

 

現在科學網上的討論和留言中，連“理性”都變成一個貶義詞（就像“同誌”，“小姐”一樣），好像老百姓沒有理性思維的能力，把科學家和工程人員放到了老百姓的對立麵， 頗有文革的氣味。 動不動就指責敢於說話的科學家和工程人員是利益相關的精英。這種辯論已經很不健康， 但是根源還是不信任。

 

茂名的抗爭導致大型國企（Sinopec)PX項目擱淺，福建漳州連續發生爆炸的PX廠據說是台商建的。大型國企和私有企業，哪個有更好的安全記錄？ 這也算是逆向淘汰吧？ 這非理性抗爭的危害，才剛剛開始。Be careful what you wish for, because you might just get it all.

 

請注意，我沒有任何指責參加抗爭的民眾的意思。這是公民的權力。

 

經濟學人這個報道還算公道，可以讓大家看看吧？

 

http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2014/04/environmental-protest-china

DEMONSTRATIONS against a petrochemical plant have this week reverberated throughout cities in China’s south-eastern Guangdong province, at times becoming riotous. The unrest began on March 30th, when 1,000 protestors assembled outside government buildings in Maoming, a city in southern China’s industrial heartland. They objected to long-standing plans for a 3.5 billion yuan ($563m) paraxylene (PX) plant, a joint venture between the local government and Sinopec, a state-owned oil and gas company. Paraxylene, a chemical in polyester fabric and plastic bottles, is dangerous if inhaled or absorbed through the skin. After several days of protest in Maoming, by April 4th smaller sister demonstrations had broken out in the cities of Shenzhen and Guangzhou.

Events in Maoming (pictured) were at first peaceful. But according to eyewitnesses quoted by the BBC, the crowd became tetchy, burning a car and throwing bottles until police dispersed it with tear gas and batons. Unverified pictures circulating briefly online—internet censors soon interjected—showed bloodied citizens, some apparently unconscious. Such scenes prompted Human Rights Watch (HRW) to question whether police used disproportionate force. Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, has pledged to launch a “war on pollution”, says Sophie Richardson, HRW’s China director. “Yet when citizens demonstrate their concerns for the environment they appear to be in harm’s way.” So far 18 people have been detained, charged with assembling a mob to disrupt social order.

 

Since 2010 China has been the world’s largest PX producer and consumer, getting through 16m tonnes of the stuff in 2013. More than half of what is consumed is imported, a costly arrangement resulting in a supply gap of 9.5m tonnes. Authorities are attempting to ramp up domestic production by building plants in some major cities.

But for citizens who regularly breathe polluted air and drink water of debatable toxicity, the state of the environment has become a central concern. It is also one of the few areas where “mass incidents”, to use party parlance, are to a degree tolerated. Hundreds of environmental protests occurred in China last year.

Paraxylene is a particular bugbear. In 2007 in Xiamen, a city in Fujian province, tens of thousands of protestors rallied over a proposed PX plant in one of the first large displays of citizen disgruntlement with the deteriorating environment. Similar protests have since occurred in the north-eastern city of Dalian and a south-western city, Anning. A consistent pattern has emerged of government secrecy giving rise to freewheeling civic rumour, followed by street action and, finally, official acquiescence.

This is despite vigorous propaganda campaigns to assuage public fears. On March 31st, the day after the protests, the MaomingDaily, a local state-run newspaper, described PX as “an important element for building our happy life” on its front page (in Chinese). The People’s Daily, a national party mouthpiece, once said (in Chinese) that PX was no more carcinogenic than coffee. A television station in Yunnan province broadcast a series on PX production in Japan to show how the industry and the environment co-exist without issue.

What the public wants is greater transparency, and to be a part of the decison-making process. Following the ruckus in Xiamen, that PX facility was moved to Zhangzhou, in Fujian province. A more conciliatory approach saw public involvement in impact assessments, reports from petrochemical experts, door-knocking cadres, overseas and domestic study trips and the necessary “positive” publicity. Zhangzhou has become a model of how to deftly handle paraxylene PR.

In contrast, the Maoming government’s furtiveness heightened unease. “There are clear and open paths [authorities] could follow, yet they hide in the shadows,” writes Liu Jianqiang, an editor at chinadialogue.net, an environmental issues website and journal. “And we are meant to not wonder what they are doing there? Who exactly is giving PX a bad name?”

For better or worse authorities will struggle to restore faith in the Maoming project now. At a press briefing on April 3rd, officials appeared to back down, saying that the plant was still in an early planning phase and would not go ahead without public consensus. If true, in a country where citizens rarely participate in policymaking, it is a small but meaningful victory.

本文引用地址：http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-2470641-880430.html  此文來自科學網洪建輝博客，轉載請注明出處。