股市小書生
價值投資
最近一段時間，阿裏的股價在170-190之間的區域反複頻繁的波動，今天股價又到了上部區域，所以之前的博弈全部實現獲利成交。從芒格博弈策略看，隻有最終實現向上大趨勢才能成功，否則就是失敗，而且是徹底的失敗。
從阿裏的一年圖形看，如果博弈的開始起點是在股價的波動底部區域，遊戲可以玩得比較順手，因為每一個賭注下注後獲利成交的時間間隔很短，被股價下跌套住的幅度小，時間也短，所以賭注資金占用的時間和風險都很短很小，也就是對博弈的資金池要求不高，實際上的心裏壓力也小，參考過去一年的價格波動，事實上沒有出現過整體虧損（包括賬麵虧損）的情況，這在實戰中很重要，有心裏優勢，不容易犯情緒類的操作錯誤。
我們不可能預先知道未來的股價波動，但是當前的股價估值的大致水平是可以知道的。比如目前阿裏的股價是在長期均值的偏低區域，下行風險相對較小，上漲的概率相對較大，這是可以比較合理的肯定的，也就是一個大概率事件（當然不是100%），所以它值得賭。
我個人還是認為最好的辦法是，低價區域大量買入，股價上漲後，不論是合理還是不合理的估值水平，賣掉一半，然後在較大安全邊際的前提下長期持有另一半，賺取企業成長的利潤。
但是短期博弈也有好處，在不太占用資金的情況下，可以產生一些現金流，同時增加了投資過程中的一點點樂趣。從最近的實戰看，一般都是當日成交，時間長的也就二三天，基本不占用資金。當然賭得小，贏得就會少，但是如果想賭得大一些，就可能是完全另一種情況了。小賭怡情。
芒格的個人觀點是不參與小賭的，他隻玩大的，而且是最大的那一種。
They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
2010年，芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING
Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.
And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
