2000-2019 CAT 的價格波動（TD， PH）

今天CAT出季報，所以來看看CAT過去二十年的價格波動。CAT，PH，TD都是屬於長期大盤藍籌股，但是各自的行業，業務特點是完全不同的。

 

參考過去20年的股價波動，在每年的價格底部區域買入，持有二年到價格頂部區域時，

2000   103%

2001   114%

2002   192%

2003   190%

2004   140%

2005   111%

2006   51%

2007   6%

2008   197%

2009   439%

2010   132%

2011   48%

2012   40%

2013   16%

2014   13%

2015   152%

2016   207%

2017   ？

2000-2016年的均值是 128%，加二年分紅和紅利再投入大約是5-6%，綜合回報均值是133%左右。

2017年的最低價格是90.34，現在的價格是132。

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken,

you should not be in the stock market.”- 巴菲特

個股的股價的年均波動幅度要大於08金融危機時股市的整體波動幅度。對個股投資者而言，要做好應對遠遠大於08危機波動幅度的市場變化。

在TD，PH和CAT中，TD的股價波動幅度是最小的，長期的綜合回報也是最高的。

對個人投資者的資金規模而言，TD，PH，CAT中的任何一隻股票都可以通過足夠多的機會滿足投資需求。從實戰角度，普通投資者選擇TD，投資過程中需要曾受的壓力會小一些，完全投資計劃和目標的可能性更大一些。

 

I've learned many things from him （George Soros）, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

• Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in The New Market Wizards 

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

毫無疑問，市場在波動之中提供了無窮無盡的機會，但是芒格的經驗是我們隻可能抓住其中極少數的機會，但是已經足夠了。

芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.

And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.