股市小書生
價值投資
昨天有網友說 “加國銀行TD， 跌幅不小。”
YTD，TD的投資回報率是-0.19%，一般這樣的跌幅都是被忽略不計的。
一年的投資總回報是0%，沒有任何跌幅。
簡單的理解網友指的是從今年的最高點到目前的價位的下跌幅度，52W 高位80.05，目前71.04，向下波動幅度-11.5%，美金價格計算是-13.5%，從個股看，這樣的波動幅度應該還是在正常範圍之內。
對比一些美國市場股票的波動幅度，目前股價與年內最高點相比：
HD下跌-21.4% ，JPM下跌-10%，WFC下跌-21%，AMZN下跌-27%，APPL下跌-24%，FB下跌-38%。
從短期股價波動操作而言，TD不是一個理想的標的，因為有許多股票的波動幅度比TD大一倍左右。我以前多次寫過，美國的投資者是沒有必要關注加國市場的，因為美國市場的各類機會要比加國市場多十倍以上。
單從TD的股價波動幅度看，市場整體還是認可TD的商業盈利能力的穩定性和估值水平的，所以股價波動幅度有限，這對長期投資者而言不是件好事，因為很少能夠有機會低價/高性價比的買入機會，你不太容易買到低價/低估值的TD股票，因為市場的主力資金心裏清楚TD是怎樣的一家公司，買賣雙方都不會輕易的給另一方機會。TD的市場PE估值長期以來都是加國銀行股中最高的，一般會高出１０-20%，這是市場對一致公認的加國銀行中最優秀者的估值溢價，也是資本市場的基本規律。
目前市場整體下跌了不少，所以現在應該算是一個非常差的價格點位。
如果是三年前買入的TD股票，現在是什麽狀況呢？
2018 45.19%
2017 45.75%
2016 45.87%
2015 48.77%
2014 83.83%
2013 45.94%
2012 114.78%
2011 18.41%
2010 23.85%
2009 12.11%
2008 -23.53%
2007 48.62%
2006 70.54%
2005 97.67%
2004 33.95%
2003 11.57%
2002 -7.74%
2001 59.70%
2000 58.40%
1999 121.39%
1998 102.10%，
在過去二十年，每年的11月22號買入TD，持有三年，平均獲利49.92%。為什麽是49.92%呢？可不可以是其它數字呢？不可以，因為TD的ROE長期均值是15%，1.15的三次方是1.52，所以這個數字必須是在50%左右，不可能多，也不可能少。
We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses.
Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result.
So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects. - 芒格
芒格談論的是投資的基本規律，所謂的規律就是必然會發生的事。
在二十年中，為什麽會有二次負數呢？投資者該如何認識呢？
In October of 2009, Charlie Munger was interviewed on the BBC.
Here's what he had to say about Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKa) stock (it was down quite a bit at the time) and, more generally, the decline in common stocks.
So how much does Charlie worry when Berkshire's common stock declines?
"Zero. This is the third time that Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it's in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact, you can argue that if you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you're not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations."
In this BBC interview with Warren Buffett, also from back in 2009, here's what he had to say
about the nature of stock markets.
"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage."
在今天買入TD股票，持有三年，有90%的概率可以獲利50%。
最後再說一遍，美國的投資者是沒有必要關注加國市場的，因為美國市場的各類機會要比加國市場多十倍以上。
