與夏雨719談談騰訊股票的價格波動

年初53左右買入的，值得長期捂著，還是都出掉啊？- 夏雨719

”騰訊還是51的時候入的，37走了一半，還有一半就捂著吧。“ - 夏雨719

雖然不知道你買入騰訊的理由，但是從你的實際交易操作，可以知道你是跟蹤價格趨勢，大白話就是“炒股”。

炒股我不懂，但是投資我懂一些，我就談談投資者是如何思考股價波動的。僅供參考。

 

We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses. 

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. 

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.  - 芒格

騰訊公司過去五年的ROE均值是31.39%，ROE31.39%的五年五次方是3.86，過去五年騰訊股價上漲大約是3.7倍。

按照芒格的生意模式資本理論，如果騰訊公司能在今後二十年繼續維持30%的ROE，那麽股價可以上漲190倍，這是我感興趣的，騰訊是有可能成為芒格所說的Good Business，所以我想投資它。

如果你買了一個價值低估的股票 ， 你就要等到價格達到你算出來的內在價值時賣掉 ， 這是很難算的 。
但是如果你買了一個偉大的公司 ， 你就坐那兒待著就行了。-  芒格

參考芒格的投資理論，如果是長期持有，那麽買入價格高或低50%，對最終的結果影響不大，大致上你投入的每一分錢的年均回報率基本上與ROE相等，所以如果騰訊今後二十年的ROE均值是30%，那麽你投入的每一分錢的投資收益將大致是年均30%，假設20年以後估值水平不變。

對於一家好公司，當然是股價越低，買入越多，止損在這裏是不存在的（投資組合的考慮依然是必要的），除非是不再符合好公司的要求。買入價格的合理估值當然是投資者的常規工作，成長股的估值方法與普通藍籌股當然是不同的，一般會偏高，但依然必須是在合理範圍之內。 

Mr Market

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

根據老巴的經驗，任何股票的短期股價大幅波動都是十分普通的事，如果你不想承受大幅度的股價下跌，該怎麽辦呢？

"You shouldn't own common stocks if a 50% decrease in their value in a short period of time would cause you acute distress."  - 巴菲特

因為芒格的理論隻能在長期持中有效，所以如果想得到這個理論的結果，必須使用長期持有的策略。投資資金的安排當然要與策略相對應，資金必須可以長期使用。

合理利用市場先生的波動，有可能降低資本風險，比如我期望以0-50%的市價成本建立長期倉位。 

 

在國內生活

聯係朋友，用微信

買東西，用京東，微信支付

叫外賣，用美團，餓了嗎

叫車，用滴滴

騎單車，用摩拜

買假貨，用PDD

旅遊，用攜程

電動汽車，用蔚來

。。。。。。

而它們都是屬於騰訊的，騰訊是中國互聯網經濟的一個指數。

阿裏的情況與騰訊差不多。