SP PE Ratio 25, 紅旗還能扛多久。（我自己是完全不知道的。）

在2000年之前的二，三年，著名投資者Howard Marks 和巴菲特都曾經以非常正式的方式公開提醒股市處於非理性的狀態。他們的正確判斷在2，3年之後被印證了 。

目前 SP PE Ratio 25, 市場中認為股市過熱的人遠比２０００年之前要多。如果假設這個判斷是正確的，市場也是需要一段時間來印證的，　比如２，３年的時間　。以SP市場平均資本回報率10%為參考，三年的複利是33%，所以今天的市場價格三年後SP PE　ＲＡＴＩＯ是１８－１９，這是一個完全合理的市場價格，所以無論市場以何種理由借口維持三年，今天的價格就成為了一個合理的價格。

如果市場未來保持10%的年均增長，三年後估值水平等同於現在，那麽今天市場跌不下去， 未來也可能跌不下去。

市場隻有在未來3年裏有大大超過33%的增長幅度的情況下，才會有比今天更大概率的有一定大幅度的估值回歸下跌。

市場長期維持現狀，等待估值慢慢趨於合理範圍也是一個選項。

At Berkshire we focus almost exclusively on the valuations of individual companies, looking only to a very limited extent at the valuation of the overall market. Even then, valuing the market has nothing to do with where it's going to go next week or next month or next year, a line of thought we never get into. The fact is that markets behave in ways, sometimes for a very long stretch, that are not linked to value. Sooner or later, though, value counts. - 巴菲特1999年公開演講


為什麽老巴現階段投資蘋果，因為市場的高低從來不是他投資的重要參考依據。


From an interview with Charlie Munger at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. For a couple of hours, Munger talks in front of a large audience to Becky Quick of CNBC then takes questions from students and faculty.

 

Becky began the interview by asking Charlie for his thoughts on the economy.

"Warren and I have not made our way in life by making successful macroeconomic predictions and betting on our conclusions.

Our system is to swim as competently as we can and sometimes the tide will be with us and sometimes it will be against us. But by and large we don't much bother with trying to predict the tides because we plan to play the game for a long time.

I recommend to all of you exactly the same attitude.

It's kind of a snare and a delusion to outguess macroeconomic cycles...very few people do it successfully and some of them do it by accident. When the game is that tough, why not adopt the other system of swimming as competently as you can and figuring that over a long life you'll have your share of good tides and bad tides?"



對大多數普通人，芒格的建議是值得參考的。