2011年一位女網友在大千問了我一個關於TD的投資問題 七

"Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."  - 巴菲特

"I think diversification and all the stuff they're teaching at business school today is probably the most misguided concept everywhere,"
Stan Druckenmiller said during a speech on January 18th at the Lone Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida.
 

我個人是完全認同Diversification的投資思想的，也認可指數投資的方法的，但是在實際投資中，我選擇集中投資模式，因為這是主動型投資取得好成績的理想方法。

TD是我長期以來關注和思考的一個投資標的，在最近的思考中我發現如果我這些年隻投資了TD，將所有的精力和資金都集中投資在TD上，那麽我現在的投資回報會高出許多，而且投資的過程會更輕鬆。但是要做到高度集中是非常困難的，因為這是違背人的本性的。

在女網友開始投資時，因為資金量不大，不會有太大的問題，但當資金數量達到一定規模時（對於投資者而言），會非常容易放棄高度集中方式，這是人的天性，不容易克服。

為什麽如果集中投資TD一個股票，投資回報會比整個投資回報高出許多？事實上TD的股價波動要小於整體市場的波動，出現超高性價比的機會並不多。

芒格：

“Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you're not going to make much different than a six percent return - even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with one hell of a result.”

TD 過去十年的ROE



在加國市場中能夠長期達到TD的ROE水平的公司並不多，所以一個加股的組合，即使是在買入的時候有比較大的性價比優勢，長期（三年以上）依然會落後於TD的投資回報表現，這與賭場中的ODDS意義相同，決定長期結果的是生意模式的優勢和博弈遊戲的賭場優勢，而不是個人的“技巧”。

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects. - 芒格


如果選擇了集中投資方式，在長期的持有等待過程中能做些什麽？

 

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

市場波動必然會出現低風險高回報的機會，即使是優質的長期藍籌股也一樣，因為市場中有非常大的資金和參與者隻願意或隻能夠關注短期市場表現。這是投資者值得重視的投資機會。

世界頂尖投資者，巴菲特，芒格，索羅斯，伊坎等等對待投資機遇的態度都是完全一致的。

 They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple

 一個普通投資者，在遇到市場大幅波動時，可能會經常完全忘卻投資基本常識，而投資大師的做法是：

伊坎：大選之夜，提早離開慶功宴回家投入十億。

巴菲特 ：Buy American, I am.

索羅斯：We should have 200 percent of our net worth in this trade, not 100 percent.

“在投資的世界裏，一次大機會的成果遠超過千百次的小折騰。同樣的時代大家其實麵臨的機會都差不多，區別隻在於把握度。真正的大機會，把握住一次足以改變境遇；把握住兩次將開啟全新的人生；把握住三次整個家族都會不同。從a股曆史規律來看，其實每3-5年都大概率的會碰到一次好機會，然而大多數人早已在各種小折騰中荒廢了。“ -  水晶蒼蠅拍