Parker-Hannifin Corporation 投資思考 二

大千網友寫的PH投資分析是在2015年4月，之後PH股價一路下滑至年底， 2016年初反彈至今上漲一倍以上。這是一個比較典型的 Mr. Market 類型的投資機遇， 也是一個比較理想的投資機遇，一線優質長期藍籌股在股市短期波動中，出現與和公司長期商業價值不對應的短期非理性價格大幅波動。我個人是比較偏愛這種類型的投資機遇 。

"The very liquidity of stock markets causes people to focus on price action. If you buy an apartment house, if you buy a farm, if you buy a McDonald's franchise you don't think about what it's going sell for tomorrow or next week, or next month, you think about how is this business going to do. But stocks with this huge liquidity suck people in and they turn what should be an advantage into a disadvantage." - 芒格

優質一線藍籌股，做為一個整體是長期市場投資回報率最高的一個群體，也是失敗率最低的一個群體。


We've really made the money out of high quality businesses. In some cases, we bought the whole business. And in some cases, we just bought a big block of stock. But when you analyze what happened, the big money's been made in the high quality businesses. And most of the other people who've made a lot of money have done so in high quality businesses. 

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. 

So the trick is getting into better businesses. And that involves all of these advantages of scale that you could consider momentum effects.  - 芒格

如果你買了一個價值低估的股票，你就要等到價格達到你算出來的內在價值時賣掉，這是很難算的。
但是如果你買了一個偉大的公司，你就坐那兒待著就行了。-  芒格

PH在我和網友的談論之後不久就出現了非常好的投資機遇。如果PH在今後繼續成功當然很好 ， 但是如果ＰＨ在今天以後走向失敗了呢？如果這個投資最終是失敗的該如何麵對呢？

"I have never met a rich man who hasn't lost a lot of money, but I have met a lot of poor men who have never lost a dime"

- Rich Dad and Poor Dad

老巴在投資IBM失利以後怎麽辦，接受失敗和損失，然後一如既往的繼續投資，比如之後投資蘋果的獲利大大超過了在ＩＢＭ上的虧損。

投資中是無法全避免失誤，錯誤和失敗的，但是有一些錯誤是可以和應該避免的。　

比如美國的二房，在０６－０７年時，ＴＤ銀行的ＣＥＯ決定退出所有次貸相關業務，原因是他認為“　It doesn`t make common `sense.“，，把錢借給即沒有實際經濟償還能力，也沒有足夠商業信用的人，是沒有 common sense 的愚蠢行為。

 

Samuel Untermeyer: "Is not commercial credit based primarily upon money or property?"
Morgan: "No, sir; the first thing is character."
Untermeyer: "Before money or property?"
Morgan: "Before money or anything else. Money cannot buy it.” From Morgan’s testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Currency in December 1912.

The first thing is character. Before money or anything else. Money cannot but it.

你願意把錢借給沒有實際經濟償還能力，也沒有足夠商業信用的人嗎？

在投資中投資常識性的錯誤是可以和應該避免的。

From Li Lu’s 2010 Columbia University Lecture:

So how do you really understand and gain that great insight? Pick one business. Any business. And truly understand it. I tell my interns to work through this exercise – imagine a distant relative passes away and you find out that you have inherited 100% of a business they owned. What are you going to do about it? That is the mentality to take when looking at any business. I strongly encourage you to start and understand 1 business, inside out. That is better than any training possible. It does not have to be a great business; it could be any business. You need to be able to get a feel for how you would do as a 100% owner. If you can do that, you will have a tremendous leg up against the competition. Most people don’t take that first concept correctly, and it is quite sad. People view it as a piece of paper and just trade because it is easy to trade. But if it was a business you inherited, you would not be trading. You would really seek out knowledge on how it should be run, how it works. If you start with that, you will eventually know how much that business is worth.

"A certain industry might have characteristics that make it different than others. In certain industries you might have better prospects than others. Find the best of the players in the industry and the worst players. And see how they perform over time. And if the worst players perform reasonably well relative to the great players — that tells you something about the characteristics about the industry. That is not always the case but it is often the case. Certain industries are better than others.

So if you can understand a business inside out you can then eventually extend that to understanding an industry. If you can get that insight, it is enormously beneficial. If you can then concentrate that on a business with superior economics in an industry with superior economics with good management and you get them at the right price — the chances are that you can stay for a very long time.