重倉股DRG-UN再創一年新高，帶動投資組合再創曆史新高。

 

2010年，芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.

And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.

 

They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

“在投資的世界裏，一次大機會的成果遠超過千百次的小折騰。同樣的時代大家其實麵臨的機會都差不多，區別隻在於把握度。真正的大機會，把握住一次足以改變境遇；把握住兩次將開啟全新的人生；把握住三次整個家族都會不同。從a股曆史規律來看，其實每3-5年都大概率的會碰到一次好機會，然而大多數人早已在各種小折騰中荒廢了。“ -  水晶蒼蠅拍

 

 

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

 

 

“投資要想成功需要承認兩個前提：第一，我們都是凡人，我們必將不斷犯錯；第二，投資的核心原理早已穩定，我們要做的不是創新，而是理解並執行。投資要想慘敗可以建立在另外兩個前提上：第一，我天賦異稟，我能做到別人做不到的；第二，我擁有或者發現了最新的炒股奧義，我在投資理論上已經幫人類跨出了新的一步。” -  水晶蒼蠅拍

我們要做的不是創新，而是理解並執行老巴的成功投資經驗。

我在DRG-UN的投資中使用了芒格和老巴的成功投資經驗，並取得了成功，現在我正在重複使用相同的投資思想投資REI-UN，我要重複以前的成功。

 

我要反反複複的使用老巴芒格的成功投資經驗，反反複複的取得投資成功。