對未來一段時間市場波動的應對思考 二

在A，B，C的預備應對方案背後是博弈數學原理凱利公式，這是在純博弈中取得最佳博弈結果的方式。在我學習投資過程中，從許多成功的投資者的投資思想中我都發現了與凱利公式的高度吻合之處。

Buy as much as you can！

 it's not risky to buy securities at a fraction of what they're worth. – Warren Buffett

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple. - 2010年，芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

I've learned many things from him （George Soros）, but perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.　－　Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in The New Market Wizards 

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

巴菲特：“當天上掉金子的時候，應該用大桶去接，而不是杯子。 ”

凱利公式是取得博弈成果的最佳方式，但它不是保證每次都贏的方式。以老巴為例，老巴在長期的投資個過程中，犯了大大小小許多錯誤，但是這不妨礙他的整體投資的成功。在投資中失敗犯錯都是必然，如何應對是投資者的日常工作之一。

 

Now it’s true that Canada is heavily dependent on the energy industry, which is experiencing the worst oil crash in over 50 years.

However, just 1% of Toronto-Dominion’s loans are to oil companies, meaning that its fundamental profitability hasn’t been hurt much during the downturn.

In addition, the bank continues to strengthen its vault-like balance sheet over time (more on this later), despite the fact that it sailed through the financial crisis with flying colors.

Canada actually has not had a single banking crisis since 1840, while the U.S. has had a dozen, likely driven by regulatory differences.

Regardless, Toronto-Dominion’s conservative management is exactly what dividend investors should demand of any banks in their portfolios.

上麵是一篇關於TD分析文章中的一段。

一直以來我都使用TD這個投資實例來談論我個人對投資的理解。這裏TD是一個討論中的舉例。如果有人認為我的目的就是為了推薦TD， 我個人認為這樣的人非常愚蠢，也不需要閱讀我的貼子。 (how many times do I have to repeat this point lol) 我借用一下不迷糊的話。

一年多以前，在石油價格的波動中，TD的股價受到了很大的影響。我們從分析文章中可以看到TD對石油行業的貸款是全部貸款業務量的1%，股價的波動顯然是大大超出了可能出現的業務虧損，這樣的股價波動機遇是實施我ABC預案的良機。這裏的整個投資邏輯是簡單，也合理的，使用的也隻是簡單的投資常識 ，沒有任何特別的秘訣。

但是實際上我選擇了地產基金  DRG-un，理由也同樣簡單。

1，德國地產，與加國經濟關聯度小。
2，客戶沒有與能源行業相關的，Google是大客戶之一。
3，股價低於淨資產40%， 安全邊際大。
4，紅利高，大大超過融資成本。
5，業務確定性高。
6，歐洲REIT的發展比北美晚許多，未來有較大增長空間。

不迷糊在確認了QQQ的長期優勢以後， 提出了閉眼買。

通過這幾個例子，我們可以看出在大規模資金投入時，我們是如何考慮風險的。