加國地產基金DRG的投資思考 20170427 《三》

在20170503的最新季度報告中，DRG地產基金的經營業績表現良好，特別是FFO和AFFO的增長，這是該基金從2011年上市以來首次出現的實質性的大幅增長。

HIGHLIGHTS

Continued strong leasing performance supported by robust German fundamentals

Occupancy reaches 90.1% in Q1 2017, the ninth consecutive quarter of occupancy growth and the highest occupancy level in the Trust’s history;

 

Year-over-year rental rate growth of 7.2% across the entire portfolio to €10.36 per square foot in Q1 2017, reflecting the Trust’s leasing and asset management program;

New record-low in Germany’s office vacancy rate with vacancy rates in the seven largest office markets declining by 100 basis points year-over-year to 5.3% at the end of Q1 2017;

Low unemployment of 4.0% in a continuously strengthening economy with Germany’s Ifo business climate index reaching a 10-year high;

Continuing yield compression in Germany’s largest office markets, fuelled by strong investor demand, low vacancy rates and moderate new supply of office space.

Delivered strong operating results with improved funds from operations

Basic Funds from Operations ("FFO") increased to 23 cents per unit in Q1 2017, up 15% year-over-year, reflecting the Trust’s key initiatives put in place over the last year, including its refinancing, leasing and capital recycling;

Basic Adjusted Funds from Operations ("AFFO") increased to 22 cents per unit in Q1 2017, up 10% year-over-year from 20 cents in Q1 2016;

Improved capital structure

Closed $115 million equity issue on March 21, 2017, including the full exercise of an over-allotment option;

Lowered weighted average face interest rate of Trust’s overall debt to 1.76% at the end of Q1 2017 from 1.85% at the end of Q4 2016 and 2.48% at the end of Q1 2016;

Increased interest coverage ratio to 4.02 times at the end of Q1 2017 from 2.78 times at the end of Q1 2016;

Reduced level of debt to 48% at the end of Q1 2017 from 52% at the end of Q4 2016 and 55% at the end of Q1 2016 as a result of the Trust’s financing initiatives over the last 12 months;

 

DRG20111212的IPO價格是10元，今日的股價依然還在10元以下，所以DRG不是什麽出色的成長公司，事實上它是一個非常普通，甚至於是投資回報表現比較差的一隻股票。 
 

如果考慮地產基金紅利的高稅率，那麽DRG的長期投資回報率是比較低的，沒有任何特別之處，但是如果能夠合理的運用投資常識對DRG進行合理的投資，我們仍然可以取得非常令人滿意的投資結果。
 
這裏也可以參考一下中國A股市場的成功價值投資者的長期表現：

上證綜指自3,525點到3,216點，-8.77%；
香港恒指自20,520點到24,218點，+18.02%；
道瓊斯自12,923點到20,692點，+60.12%；
 

專欄投資組合自100萬元到700.03萬元，+600.03 %。

在過去十年中國的上證綜指是-8.77%，楊天南的月度專欄投資組合的回報是600.03%，因為是月度財經雜誌，所以他的投資組合的變動頻率隻能在一個月以上，他沒有機會進行短期投機交易。

如果在一個極其普通的投資標的上合理使用投資策略，都可以取得（而且是反複再現）令人滿意的投資結果，那麽我們就不用擔心市場中沒有足夠的投資機會實現自己 的投資目標。

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
2011年，老巴印度之行的談話