對未來一段時間市場波動的應對思考

目前關於加國經濟的負麵消息滿天飛，基本上沒有有分量的正麵利好消息，市場股指又處於曆史最高區域，所以在今後一年的時間內，市場很可能由於某些原因或消息出現比較大的向下波動，而我的長期重倉銀行類股票是對大市波動比較敏感的，非常有可能跟隨大市波動。

在加國銀行商業模式，經營環境沒有實質性變化的前提下，我預備如下的應對方案：

A

選擇一家，至多二家銀行為重點，在底價位買入，待市場平複後賣出，目標是將現有長期倉位的持股成本價盡可能降為零，為長期持股創造絕對優勢。


B

選擇一家，至多二家銀行為重點，在底價位買入，待市場平複後賣出一部分，目標是以市場正常價格的50%價位增加長期持股數量，擴大投資組合的規模。

C

選擇一家，至多二家銀行為重點，在底價位超級別重倉買入，待市場平複後賣出一部分，目標是以市場正常價格的50%價位超大幅度增加長期持股數量，提升該股倉位在整個投資組合中的等級。

資金調配

累積目前的紅利現金收入，以1 到1.5的金融杠杆為資金最大規模。在實施C方案時，如有必要可以賣出部分其它獲利的股票，以最大資金量把握特大投資機遇。

這是純粹對市場情緒波動的投資機會的捕捉，主要對應的是市場可能出現的短期恐慌造成的非理性價格波動，與所投資的公司/股票的長期商業價值無關 。

The Seventh Best Idea

 

From this Warren Buffett speech at the University of Florida:

"If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need. And you will make a lot of money. And I can guarantee that going into a seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is gotta be terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea. So I would say for anyone working with normal capital who really knows the businesses they have gone into, six is plenty, and I probably have half of what I like best. I don't diversify personally."

Clearly, this view on diversification is far from conventional. Charlie Munger -- and this is not exactly a surprise -- once said something rather similar in a speech to the Foundation Financial Officers Group:*

"I have more than skepticism regarding the orthodox view that huge diversification is a must for those wise enough so that indexation is not the logical mode for equity investment. I think the orthodox view is grossly mistaken."