加國市場的地產基金Smart REIT

2017-01-04 06:35:27

作為一名股市投資者，是有許多功課必須做，而且要做好的，這裏包括了投資知識的學習和思考，也包括了對投資標的深入了解和思考。目前，美加股市都在相對高位，所以也沒有適合我的投資機會，我有更多的時間來思考未來可能的投資標的，當然也包括了對投資知識的更深層的學習和思考。

絕大多數人對股市的理解都是偏向於投機模式，這很正常，股市投資是需要學習的，而絕大多數人是不喜歡學習的。通常許多人都會認為，參與股市，就是整天看金融新聞，目不轉睛的看著股價曲線的變化，極其頻繁的買賣交易。

我回顧了一下自己的養老金帳戶，去年一年，除了每月一次的紅利再投入交易，我沒有做過一次股票的買賣交易。除了每個月增加的紅利收入，投資組合的回報要高於股指，今天是又創了曆史最高值，因為前幾天發了POW的季度紅利，今天整體股價又漲了。我預計今年除了紅利再投入交易以外，我也不會有一次的股票交易買賣，但是每個月的紅利收入是增加的。這裏指的是養老金自管帳戶。

我正在用同樣的投資策略在加股市場上複製美股市場上投資者B的養老金投資的成功。

加國市場的地產基金Smart REIT

Smart是加國市場上非常成功的一個REIT，它的最大特色是它是Walmart最大的房東。SMART的主要創建者現在是億萬富豪，但是三十年前，他隻是個比投坦許多地產投資者規模更小的個體建築商，能夠得到與Walmart的合作機會，是他的人生機遇，但是這樣的機遇是通過極大的努力才爭取到的，他曾經一年多的時間裏主動聯係Walmart， 但是沒有一個人答理他，可是他堅持不懈，當Walmart終於決定進入加國市場的時候，他已經準備好了詳細的長遠發展規劃。

商業的本質是競爭，一個商業的成功總是與整體社會的發展相融合的。在過去二十年，加國地產行業的成功是與加國經濟，甚至於世界經濟的發展緊密相關的，所以主動的理解和思考社會的現實對投資有幫助。SMART創建者在當時堅信商業模式必然發生時代性的變革，Walmart這樣的新型購物商場一定有機會發展。說明一下，SAMRT不是隻給Walmart當房東，它是以Walmart的客流量為基礎，開發大型的新式開放式的商業商場。

在過去二十年裏，SMART的投資回報是非常出色的。

 

可能是受惠於Walmart的客流量，SMART的出租率一向是非常高的。

這是安省旺市的一個SMART的地產，大致SAMRT所有的商業地產都與此類似。因為城市人口的增長，目前加國的大商業REIT都發現了新的發展機遇，由於這些REIT都擁有大塊的城市中心交通要道的土地，再次向高空開發這些土地資源成了目標，SMART也有一些這樣的發展機會。

在股市投資中，要尋找最適合自己的方式。我將自己的投資重點集中在加國市場中銀行，保險，地產，通信和能源中的優質藍籌股，是認真思考的決定。

既然，我選擇的是已經確定的有長期商業競爭優勢的企業，那麽我就不太可能有超額的回報。

“I don’t want to buy into any business that I’m not terribly sure of. So if I’m terribly sure of it, it probably isn’t going to offer incredible returns. Why should something that is essentially a cinch to do well offer you 40% a year or something like that? So we don’t have huge returns in mind. But we do have in mind never losing anything.” -  Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida

因為我是價值投資思想的跟隨者，所以 Margin of Safety  是我投資思想和策略的靈魂。即使是像FCR， SMART或者加國銀行這樣的優質藍籌股，我也要用市場均價的半價來建立長期持有的倉位，因為另一半是我的安全邊際。

實現這樣的安全邊際：

格老提供了  Mr. Market 的理論基礎。

老巴提供市場實例：

2011年，老巴印度之行的談話

“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”

“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”

“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”

芒格提供了人生哲學角度的思考：

芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.

And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.

How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.

So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.

在昨天的論壇貼子中，提到了股市投資中的重倉問題，這確實是實際中的一個難點。幾個月前，一位有幾十年專業理財顧問工作經驗的人也在這裏提到，在股市投資中不敢重倉，在房產投資中他敢於投入大資金。

我們可以思考一下，為什麽這些很有經驗的股市投資者都覺得難以做到重倉，而所有最成功的投資大師都是使用集中重倉的投資策略？

The trouble with you, Byron [Byron Wein – Morgan Stanley], is that you go to work every day [and think] you should do something. I don’t, I only go to work on the days that make sense to go to work. And I really do something on that day. But you go to work and you do something every day and you don’t realise when it’s a special day. - George Soros

巴菲特：“當天上掉金子的時候，應該用大桶去接，而不是杯子。 ”

2010年，芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING

“They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't.

It's just that simple.”

關於股市重倉，我們應該向誰學習？為什麽？

答案是：It's just that simple.

就像我昨天轉貼的帖子中提到，對中國這樣一個世界上最優秀的股市之一，有哪個股民有資格抱怨？

在今天，美加股市站在曆史最高峰的時刻，有哪個股名有資格抱怨？