股市小書生
價值投資
'Investing is more intelligent when it is most businesslike'
Mr. Market is an allegory created by investor Benjamin Graham
The Intelligent Investor chapter eight covers Mr. Market and Warren Buffett thinks that this is the best part of the book. Buffett described it as "by far the best book on investing ever written".
加國的金融保險地產等藍籌股的整體市場波動要比美股小許多，在過去一年大致在15-30%的幅度。從一個整體考慮，無論發生怎樣的市場變化，這樣大幅度的短期股價變動一定是由於投資者情緒起伏造成的，而不是公司的商業價值的變化。如果能夠學習和理解 Mr Market 和用生意的角度思考投資的價值投資的基本常識，你就有機會發現好的投資機會。這樣大幅度的短期股價波動不是過去一年才有的，而是每年都有的（老巴的話 ），所以無論市場高低牛熊，都會有許多投資機會的，年年如此。
2011年，老巴印度之行的談話
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING
Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.
And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
遵照老巴和芒格的投資哲學，在加國市場的2016年1月份，出現了地產基金的投資機會，如果我們聽從芒格的教誨，When you get one insight, you really load up, 就可以在六個月的時間內，從零增長到100萬，實現財務自由。對於普通人，一生中即使隻有一次這樣的成功投資，就已經非常好了，可以享用小半輩子了。
