對長期投資的一些思考 - 二

在下麵的回帖中，有一位網友提到自己的一位同事在20年時間內，在自己的養老金帳戶裏買入12支股票，隻買入，不賣出，目前資產市值3M。我剛開始學習投資的時候，經常閱讀一位筆名BuyandHold2012（Seekingalpha網站）的帖子。他和他的母親也都是使用這樣一中投資方法，她的母親是一位中學教師，45歲離異後，當時大概有5萬本金，目前是1千萬以上，BuyandHold2012 本人受母親教誨，從14歲開始參與投資，他大致投入過10萬本金，目前也是1千萬以上，他最大最好的投資是XOM。BuyandHold2012曾經向她母親推薦過老巴的股票（當時價格是100元以下），因為沒有分紅，被老太拒絕了。他的叔叔曾經聽了他的推薦，在一家醫藥服務公司（類似於CVS Health Corp, 我記不得名字了。）投資了1萬元，二十多年後獲利2百多萬，不過他自己沒有投資。

Buy and Hold, Never Sell.這種投資策略是不常見的，我覺得一般隻有在自己最親密的至親好友的貼身教誨下，才有可能，因為如果沒有親眼所見這種投資策略的效果，你是不太可能去接受和嚐試的。BuyandHold2012 的母親好像是從他姑姑那裏學到的。

這裏提到幾位都不是投資專家，使用的投資策略也是很簡單的，大多數人根本瞧不上。

如果一種投資策略是長期合理的，成功的，那麽它的背後一定會有一個合理的投資邏輯。

股市市場是一個自身不斷地進行優勝劣汰的優化係統，當長期選擇BuyandHold的時候，就會自然而然地享受到優化係統的成果。股指投資策略的背後有非常深刻的投資基本原理。

Once, at a lecture, he was asked if Wall Street professionals were better at forecasting what would happen to market, and if not, then why, and here's what he said:

"Well, we’ve been following that same question for a generation or more, and I must say frankly that our studies indicate that you have your choice between tossing coins and taking the consensus of expert opinion and the result is just about the same in each case.

Everybody in Wall St. is so smart that their brilliance offsets each other. And that whatever they know is already reflected in the level of stock prices for the much, and consequently what happens in the future represents what they don’t know." - Benjamin Graham

股市的一個有趣的特點是，專業人士沒有競爭優勢，所以非專業人士可以很輕鬆的戰勝專業人士(因為專業人士的成本是很高的，足以影響到投資結果）。

參考yourolddad下麵提到的一篇文章。

Yet compared to that of the average real-estate investor over the same period, Trump's performance is even worse, according to John Griffin, a businessman and a real-estate investor who is also a professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

Griffin used an index of funds known as real-estate investment trusts, or REITs. The managers of these funds rely on their expertise in real estate to earn money for their clients by buying and selling interests in commercial property.

This index has earned 14.4 percent a year since 1976. Had Trump done as well as the average among others in the industry, making investments that returned 14.4 percent over the long term, he would have turned the $200 million he said he had in 1976 into $23 billion as of last year, Griffin calculated.

1976年美國家庭收入中位數 11379， 2015年是53657，一般一個人的工作年限為40年。

11379 投入REIT Index， 目前市值131萬，可以每年有6萬以上紅利收入，市值相當於25年2015收入。

美國Wells Fargo 銀行。

可口可樂公司。

美浮石油。

美國強生公司。

這裏我們要注意，紅利的複利投資回報占了整體回報的66%。

在過去四十年，股指投資策略的盈利概率是100%，十年以上未有過敗績，

所以股指投資策略是的非常簡單方法，但是其中有著極其深奧的投資原理和哲學。

加國股指整體狀況基本類似，

For the TSX, I also looked at how much of the time the return for the various periods TSX return was less than an average of 6% per year. For the 5 year periods, the 5 year average return was less than 6% for 16 periods or 33% of the time. Looking at the 10 year periods, the 10 year average return was less than 6% for 10 periods or 23% of the time. Looking at 15 year periods, the 15 year average return was less than 6% for 2 periods or 5% of the time. Looking at 20 year periods, the 20 year average return was less than 6% for 3 periods or 9% of the time. There were no other periods when the TSX return average per year less than 6%.

I also looked at the TSX index like Spencer Sherman for periods where the index return over the period was negative. For the 5 year periods, I found 3 times when the index declined over the 5 year period. The total 5 year return from 1969 to 1974 was -17.2%. The total 5 year return from 1972 to 1977 was -13.6%. The total 5 year return from 1997 to 2002 was -1.3%. There was only one 10 year period loss and that was from 1964 to 1974 and the loss was -1.1%.

The other thing we should consider is that dividends make up 30% of the TSX's total return on average. That means that the TSX total return is really 30% higher than shown by the index. So, if you invest in dividend paying stock, you can make very decent return over the long term. We need to keep this in mind when the stock market plunges as it has been doing of late.

待續。

我想對一些還無法區分股市投資和股市投機區別的人提一個建議，因為目前你對股市投資一無所知，你是不具備談論評價股市投資好壞的資格的，隻有在你學習了股市投資的基礎常識以後，而且有了比較豐富的股市投資的實踐經驗以後，你才能有這個資格。

我們有時候走在大街，偶爾會遇見一二個愚昧無知的低能兒，因為他沒有常人的正常理智，所以有時他會做出一些不文明，不恰當的舉止，比如向你幹淨整潔的衣服上吐口水，作為一個有教養的正常人，我們應該以寬容的心態來對待這樣的低能兒，如果你與一個低能兒去爭論正常人之間的是非標準，那麽你自己就主動的成為了一個愚昧無知的白癡。